2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Jarrett "Etrain" Felix

Yes, despite my horrible showing both indoors and outdoors last year, I’m back and ready to throw my hat in the ring once again. Although this is far from the PAHS scene where I usually make my home, it’s always fun to just get out there and compete. I’m very curious to see what my fellow, smarter writers have to say on this subject and perhaps just as interested to see who Zat includes in his posts that inspired Craig Lutz to come across our blog almost exactly a year ago …

In classic fashion, I dropped these predictions in order of events (event finals):

5000

1.     Ed Cheserek (Oregon)- Just can’t imagine him losing this. Maybe the only champ I’m confident in. I don’t think he’s ever lost a fresh race at NCAAs (and he’s barely lost any races tired).

2.     Marc Scott (Tulsa)- I think he can hang and kick his way to a top finish based on what I saw during XC. Has produced on the big stage before.

3.     Pierce Murphy (Colorado)- A real gamer with some top XC finishes to his name and a big 3k win at MPSF under his belt.

4.     Futsum Zeinasellassie (NAU)- Go back and forth on Futsum. I could see a situation where he goes toe to toe with Ches for a while, reminding us of that not so distance Footlocker Finals race, but I also feel like he might not have the speed to close if things go slow. Of course he ran what they tell me is the equivalent of a 3:56 mile at altitude so maybe I’m really underestimating his speed in this one.

5.     Thomas Curtin (VA Tech)- One of the few people with career wins over Ches. Closed in around 25 or so against Knight at ACCs apparently. Pretty beastly runner, but I’m a tiny bit worried about potential bias considering my main source of NCAA info attends the same school.

6.     Colin Bennie (Syracuse)- Lifted my XC fantasy team. Part of a Cuse team that has proven they have a little clutch factor in their blood. Still a little unproven on the track, but has one of the best SBs in the field and some excellent training partners as well.

7.     Morgan Pearson (Colorado)- Came through at NCAAs before. Super talented guy in a great program. Can’t imagine Colorado not having one guy in the top 8, so tried to cut my losses by throwing both in here.

8.     Ryan Walling (Ole Miss)- Fresh off a couple wins at SECs. Not a crazy far trip from Miss to Alabama and he won’t be riding solo at this meet as a couple teammates qualified as well. Kind of a toss up for these last couple spots so not much differentiating factors for me. Picked the localish kid with teammates and a fast SB.

DMR

I literally just have no clue. This will be the event that sinks my ship. Well, let’s be real I probably won’t have a ship, I’ll have more of a small raft that can barely support my weight. But it will sink my small raft. I don’t think Oregon runs an A team and there are way too many variables involved with that team so I left them out of the top 8 entirely, hoping for some less variable teams.

1.     OK State- I’ll bet on Chad as the freshest and most focused anchor (although he may not even end up the anchor) and the freshest, most focused and fastest team. I figure even if they don’t win, they seem like a relatively safe bet for a top 3 finish. And none of these teams has me enamored.

2.     Georgetown- This team seems like they have been ascending towards a big moment, kind of like PSU has over the years. The only question to me is their anchor leg, but I think Bile could hang in the top group and finish strong. In theory, the rest of their legs could be dynamite so I’d think they will at least be competitive throughout.

3.     Stanford- I’m hesitant to put these guys too high because I haven’t loved their season outside of McGorty. Coyle should have a little extra spark after last year’s sloppy 1200 leg and it’s hard not to at least root for the PA kid. I’m hoping they win, but tempering my bias a bit here.

4.     Ole Miss- I really like their first three legs. I’m not sold on their anchor, but I think this team could end up like last year’s Iowa State team (although they don’t have anything like Kemboi on lead off). They sacrificed some individual potential for this relay and that kind of all-in attitude can often pay dividends

5.     Villanova- Last year I went all in with Jordy and Nova for the win, but they ended up getting the baton too far back on the anchor leg. I’m worried that could happen again. Maybe this year they will lead off Jordy and let Rob go at it on the anchor leg, but I’m not sold that works out much better. If Jordy gets it close, he can win it with his kick against anybody. But can he get it close?

6.     Washington- Afraid to put a team with a 3:53 miler this far in the field. I just don’t even know where Yorks runs on this relay and I’m not sold on UW’s speed guys out front if they want Yorks to get the stick in a good spot. Yes, the anchor leg usually ends up a sit and kick fest, but the 800 leg and 400 leg and things like that are not. Last year if you didn’t have a leg well under 1:50 at 800m you were vulnerable and maybe Wash will fit that bill this year.

7.     PSU- The “home town” team is a mid distance powerhouse with a nice history in this event now. But they have two guys doubling which concerns me a bit. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see this team in the top 4 coming down the final straightaway. Comes down to Makins for me mostly, but Harris could make a big statement as a frosh.

8.     Michigan- A fresh team with an anchor who can run 3:55ish could be an interesting squad. I know their anchor leg won’t give up and save it for individual events unlike some of these other guys who could somewhat phone it in if they end up out of it. So I’ll take a shot on UM. Shout out to Jalen Rose.

Mile

1.     Blake Haney (Oregon)- Not incredibly confident in this one. Seems like a default favorite after all the scratches. He’s run 3:56 this year which is a school record at Oregon (kind of a good school for track) and he’s closed in 51-52 to place well in championship races before. Plus he’s hung on to the pace at one of the fastest indoor miles of all time.

2.     David Elliot (Boise State)- If this was a PA HS prediction, I’d probably drop a David Elliot FTW prediction and be bold, but couldn’t bring myself to do that here. This guy has had two of the more impressive victories of the year at Wash and has a nice resume at past NCAAs. But is he championship material? That remains to be seen. Field is wide open though.

3.     Jonah Koech (UTEP)- Youngster with speed. He could end up stealing the whole thing like his teammate Rotich did a few years back (although that was at altitude I believe), but he’s also relatively inexperienced at this level. He’s in on altitude conversion which is a tricky game to judge (worked out fine for Soratos). He had a fantastic race at NCAA XC so I’ll put a little trust in him here.

4.     Henry Wynne (UVA)- He’s one at the High School level and has been rolling lately with some killer runs at ACCs. However, he will have the DMR to worry about. I feel like he’s got good odds of getting to the finals and, really, if you are in the final, you can’t hurt my scoring too bad. So that’s perhaps the most important part of these predictions. On the flip side, lots of buzz around this kid placing high or maybe winning it.

5.     Rob Napolitano (Columbia)- I like his championship resume within the IVY leg. I don’t know how that will translate here to NCAAs, but I think he’s a better race than time trailer which will help him overcome his seed. Also, he will have the advantage of running with the “I’m just lucky to be here” attitude which has led me to some of the best races of my life.

6.     Dillon Maggard (Utah State)- As I’ve said, I’m high on this conference. He’s another altitude convert so, again, we are playing with fire, but he’s broken 4 before for real, holding a 3:58.37 PR.

7.     Sam Prakel (Oregon)- The U of O had three finalists last year. Prakel has scored at NCAAs before. That’s nice incentive to project him as a scorer this year.

8.     Julian Oakley, Providence – Holds a 3:57 PR, held his own in a kickers race at Big Easts (around 4:20 for the winning time) and has some big race experience. I think he could sneak into the finals.

For the record Penn fans, I definitely think Awad could do damage in this race, but I think he’s way too variable for me to put him in my top 8 and potentially get a big point total counting against me. Just playing it safe out there.

800

1.     Clayton Murphy (Akron)- Really good at running rounds. 3^rd at a pair of NCAA champs. And I interviewed him for the blog once. I am a little nervous about the fact that he has never come through for the win and might leave it too late with his kick off a fast early pace, but I’ll take my chances.

2.     Shaquille Walker (BYU)- a 1:45 man with a nice NCAA/USA track record. I like the guys who have navigated the rounds in the past.

3.     Brandon Kidder (PSU)- Another very accomplished runner with a strong finish. He was the runner up at NCAAs last year over both Murphy and Walker and gave Duane Soloman a nice run at Millrose. He’s got an extra race in his legs from the DM though (where he may be anchoring for a shot at gold)

4.     Donovan Brazier (Texas A&M)- I think if Murphy doesn’t win it, Brazier may be the next best bet. He’s run 1:45 this year and ran a pair of 1:46s at SECs. But I’m a little worried about a freshman on this stage. 4^th is kind of more of a hedge in case of disaster. This kid is very talented and as my fellow writers had to remind me, one of my favorite runners ever won the 800 as a freshman not too long ago.

5.     Eliud Rutto (Middle Tennessee)- Another top notch 800m guy with 1:45 wheels who has been around the block more than a few times. I believe he has the fastest PR in the field.

6.     Goaner Deng, Minnesota – Experienced NCAA runner who has consistently been dropping time. Just missed the outdoor final so may have a little extra hunger come race day

7.     Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)- The kid is from a no name school/conference, but he’s won basically ever race he’s contested in the last year or so (including anchor legs on relays). Couldn’t help but lean towards the 1:47/2:21 proven winner even if his conference is a bit of a concern.

8.     Andres Arroyo (Florida)- He is still waiting on that big breakthrough at NCAAs, but this would be the tem for the junior. He PRed at SECs and ran right on Brazier. Plus Florida needs his team points.

3000

1.     Ed Cheserek (Oregon)- I’m assuming No DMR for Ches, so he will be trying to duplicate the Jenkins double of a year ago. This field is pretty loaded so if Ed isn’t on his game, somebody could run him off his game, but if we are playing odds here can’t feel confident in any one other person for gold.

2.     Justyn Knight (Syracuse)- If I had a bit more confidence in my NCAA instincts, this would be my guy. Knight will be 100% fresh, has run 3:56 hanging tough with Chris O’Hare and won’t be afraid of Eddy Ches on race day. Knight also beat out McGorty in one of the most loaded fields of the year at 3k and, in my opinion, is likely in his sweet spot at this distance.

3.     Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)- This guy is a beast and gave it everything he had against Ches in XC so we know he also won’t be afraid. He could end up taking pacing duties early and leave himself vulnerable for the kickers in this field, but he also could show up with a ton of strength and crush this one.

4.     Sean McGorty (Stanford)- Might take a herculean effort from him in the DMR the night before to get his team in the money and McGorty has struggled to win in kickers races against guys like Yorks and Knight (and Kidder). Of course he is a 3:53/7:48 guy with a proven NCAA track record. So I’m comfortable putting him pretty far up the list.

5.     Izaic Yorkz (Washington)- Another 3:53 miler who could have some gunk in his legs after the DM (which leg will he run though?). He doesn’t have quite as proven of an NCAA track record which is the only reason I’m not tossing him in the mix for the W. Not a lot separates these guys at this level and somebody has to be 5^th. So I opt for the guys with a little more proven clutch factor.

6.     Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)- Really great mile speed in a great program. Should have fresh legs as well.

7.     Patrick Corona (Air Force)- I think that conference is quietly loaded and Corona torched it a couple weekends ago. Really impressed with the guys marks this season. I feel like he’s really found his beach.

8.     Ahmed Bile (Georgetown)- Bile has nice wheels of his own and if things are slow early, he could end up kicking his way into the top 8. I believe he scored in the mile last year so he is ready for an NCAA final. That being said, he might have a DMR anchor leg in him that could make things a little heavier on race day.