World Championship Preview: Ranking the US Medal Chances

by Jarrett Felix

Just a week after USAs, the brand new Portland indoor track facility will host the World Championships. It's a bit of a precursor to the outdoor championships, which will be held in Eugene in a few years. Overall, I'm excited to see the world come to us and actually be on a somewhat similar time zone to the event (I won't have to google search "What time is it in Sopot?" this weekend which I'm happy about.

With home field advantage in our back pocket, I think the US has a great shot at getting on the podium at worlds this weekend. Here's my Power Rankings for the US indoor medal threats in the men's distance races.

6. Erik Sowinski, 800m

I’m actually not even positive Erik is going to run this race. I thought I was told he didn’t have the “A” standard needed to qualify pre nats indoors and so I assumed he would only be running if Berian had to scratch, taking the auto spot for the US. However, he may have gotten in because so little guys entered had the "A" standard in the first place. Regardless, although Erik is a strong runner with a 1:44 best, he still hasn’t shown signs he can be competitive on the world scene. He has experience racing in Europe and made his first world team last outdoors, but that was a relatively soft field (albiet one that Berian couldn’t defeat) and I don’t see Erik as the future of US 800 meter running.

That being said, the field is pretty wide open. He may have a better shot at a medal than guys like Andrews and Chelimo just because this thing is so wide open.

5. Paul Chelimo, 3,000m

Very few people, if any, were giving Chelimo a shot to even make the team for Portland last weekend. The former Paul Short XC Champion and NCAA All-American is now running for the US Army (along with some strong names like Kipchirchir and Rono) and surprised a field packed with Olympians and NCAA champions at USAs (names like Rupp, Lagat, Jager and Jenkins are no joke). With a better timed kick, he could have perhaps defeated Hill and been the US Champion. I’m not ready to just throw out his achievements as a fluke (the BTC guys made sure the pace was fast last week and Chelimo still had one of the best kicks), but the 3k is absolutely loaded compared to the other events so ultimately he falls back a tad in my power rankings. I’m excited to see what he can do for 5k this outdoors though.

4. Ryan Hill, 3,000m

Hill enters the race with the second fastest 3k in this world this season and the two biggest wins of the US season with victories at Millrose and then USA’s last week. The championship was his second straight as he also won the US Champs last outdoor season at 5,000m. This will be Hill’s third trip to the world championships and the NC State Graduate will be hoping to improve on his 7^th place finish from last outdoors.

Hill is a strong tactician with a good kick, despite having relatively modest personal bests (especially at 5,000). He’s still young and is just starting to enter his prime. But the field includes a slew of sub 13 minute 5k runners, including reigning world silver medalist Caleb Ndiku and Ethiopia’s bright young star Yomif Kejelcha. Realistically, I’m not sure Hill can beat either of those guys at worlds, but Kejelcha seems slightly more likely. Yomif is still young and figuring things out tactically, which could loom large in the crowded indoor scene. Ndiku on the other hand has a world championship medalist outdoors and is the defending world champ in this event from a couple years back. He also has sub 3:30 speed for 1500.

Also lurking in this field are guys like Augustine Choge of Kenya, Olympic Silver Medalist Dejen Gebremeskel of Ethiopia (the fastest 5,000m runner of this current era) and Yenew Alamirew (outdoor PR of 7:27, but may not contest as he would be Ethiopia’s #3 entrant). NCAA stand outs like Mo Ahmed, Kemoy Campbell, Tom Farrell and Cam Levins are all in this field as well, but I’d say Hill is a tier above them right now so I’m not worried about them jumping Hill, assuming Ryan runs to his full potential on race day.

Ultimately, I think Hill can get a medal, but he needs to run a perfect race and get some help pace wise. Despite being arguably the USA’s most impressive runner in recent weeks, he’s got a big uphill battle against this field.

3. Robby Andrews, 1500m

In case you’ve never read my blog before, I’m a Robby super fan. I’ve always like the kickers and Robby is perhaps the king of the kickers. Not necessarily because he has the best kick (although it’s pretty darn good), but because he has put himself in so many crazy positions where he has to throw down a crazy kick just to get into position. Robby’s got 1:44 800m speed form 2011 and ran 3:34 in 2012. After a couple years of struggling, he got his head back on straight in 2014-2015 and made his first world championship team and first world championship final. Now he’s starting to get the tactics to match his extraordinary speed. Mentally, Robby used to always struggle at the mile (took him forever to break 4). Now he goes to Millrose and runs 3:53. Then he follows it up with a brilliant race, pushing Centro all the way to the line. He could have won it.

Andrews still doesn’t have the PRs on the level of those world championship medalists and he’s going to need to click things down a couple notches if he wants to be a serious medal contender, but I think he’s ascending rapidly in the right direction. What’s to say he can’t steal a medal in a 3:44 type sit and kick fest? I think he’s at least in the conversation for the front of that “second tier” group that includes guys like Chris O’Hare (3:52 indoor miler and former NCAA champ in the same distance). And I think he could get Bergen or Wote considering the home field advantage and his big kick. I’m an optimist I guess.

2. Boris Berian, 800m

Ok, if you haven’t been paying attention to track the last year or so, you almost certainly never heard of America’s next great 800m star Boris Berian. Our own Alex Fox wrote a great piece on him last spring and since then he has only continued to shine. He’s clocked multiple 1:43 type marks and comes into this race with one of the best PRs in the field (plus the #2 time in the world thus far indoors). It’s his first world championship (and really his first major championship of any sort besides USAs as he was a D2 drop out).

He’s an incredible talent, but he’s still a little unproven in a rounds and finals setting. He went out in the semis at USAs last spring, despite being a heavy favorite for the title (by time anyway). So it’s not wrong to be skeptical here. However, I think Boris might be ready for a big statement at this indoor championship. There’s no Rudisha, Amos or Tuka in this field. In fact the only guy with any real impressive world championship performances is former world champ Mo Aman. Aman seems like the best challenger for the throne, especially since he now trains in the USA near Portland and will have a piece of that home field advantage. But Aman has been well off his usual form in recent years. Dude ran 1:42 a few years back and used to be the only guy who could beat Rudisha, but he’s been maddeningly inconsistent since his 2013 world gold.

After that it’s really just Balla from Qatar (world indoor leader and a world championship finalist) that I see as being a clear step above Berian, and even that’s debatable. Remember that Chanelle Price won a world indoor gold medal last time out and she’s still not even made a US world team. So why can’t the US’s next great superstar win gold in a slightly underwhelming 800 field? You got this Boris!

1. Matt Centrowitz, 1500m

Unlike literally everyone else from the USA, Centro already has two world outdoor medals (in addition to his 4^th place finish in London) at this exact distance. He won the Millrose Games in an all-time type mark of 3:50, proving he’s fit and his tactics have carried him through the rounds before on the big stage. Plus he has the advantage of knowing the defending outdoor Olympic and World Champions are both out of the line up in this one. His biggest challenge will likely come from Abdalaati Iguider, the 2012 world indoor champ, who is fresh off an impressive spring that included a sub 3:29 mark at 1500. Iguider is also the bronze medalist from the 2012 Olympics, a few fractions of a second in front of Centro. Also looking to challenge for the title will be Ayanleh Souleiman, who I personally think has the best chance of challenging the almighty Kiprob this outdoor season. Souleiman won the 1500 last indoor season and is fresh off a world indoor record at 1k. Plus Ayanleh is in the same training group as multi world record holder Genezebe Dibaba. And it seems like whatever is in the water there is good stuff. Nick Willis, Centro’s newest rival, is also in the race and I’m sure he’s hungry for some revenge.

Centro has proven he can run around the level of these guys in the past, and nobody has shown flashes of 3:50 level stuff so far indoors. He also has the home field advantage that all USA athletes will be able to boast this weekend. I just really like the guys tactics over the years and also feel he’s got such good strength that he will get better when you add in the extra rounds. I honestly feel he’s got a real shot at gold and so it’s not crazy for me to put him #1 in my-PSYCHE ROBBY MF ANDREWS BABY.

And for the record the MF stands for my (good) friend.

Wait, I already said him. So Centro is number 1 I guess. Darn.