Penn Relays PA Individual Predictions

by Jarrett Felix

If you like Penn Relays discussion, you may want to check out TheRoundHouse here on the blog at 9 o'clock tonight. Also be on the lookout for a Relay Prediction Post that will be coming in the (hopefully) not so distant future.

Let's get to it.

Mile

Despite lots of success in a variety of events, PA has struggled to breakthrough for the gold in the Penn Relays Mile. In the past 8 years our highest finisher is Tom Kehl of Father Judge (who placed 3^rd in 2010) and we actually didn’t even have any qualifiers for the event in 2009 or 2011. However, I think this year’s crew of runners is the deepest field we have ever assembled for the event, so maybe this is our year for redemption. But which member of our pack will breakthrough for PA’s top spot?

Quite frankly, your guess is better than mine at this point as this crew is incredibly balanced. To stop speaking in generalities, let me outline the four runners who have been invited to participate in this race: Jaxson Hoey (DTW), Mike Kolor (Seneca Valley), Josh Hoey (DTW) and Nick Dahl (GFS). Two seniors, a sophomore and a junior. If you count Dahl’s 4:10 split on the DMR at the Armory for Indoor Nats, than Josh Hoey is the only runner of the foursome who hasn’t clocked a 4:10 1600 in the last 12 months (of course he was a freshman in high school for a good chunk of that 12 months so what did you expect). It will almost certainly take something in the 4:09-4:11 range to win this race (assuming things don’t get too tactical), so these guys will need to be in top form to compete for gold, but it’s not unlikely for one of these guys to drop that kind of mark considering each runner’s personal bests. When you combine all these greater than zero odds, PA has to be feeling pretty good about itself.

I can’t speak for what’s outside the state borders, but I’ll give a brief rundown of the PA boys below. For the sake of fairness, I will go from slowest mile PR to fastest.

Josh Hoey 4:17.45 @ Indoor States (4:15.71 DMR split at Nationals)

Josh may be the slowest in this field on paper, but he’s far from the slowest in actuality. In recent months, Josh Hoey has defeated the reigning mile and 3k state champions, dropped massive PRs at 400 and 800 (1:54.11), and gutted out an anchor leg against Drew Hunter. All as just a sophomore. In terms of raw talent, there have been incredibly few frosh/sophs to have achieved what Josh has in such a short period of time (recently it’s pretty much Craig Miller and that’s it). Without a freshman cross season in the PIAA, the middle Hoey has grabbed 3 individual state medals, a team gold, a team silver, an individual bronze and an individual silver. He’s run poised on the big stage including his first ever trip to Hershey, Shippensburg and PSU. This will not be his first trip to Penn, but it will be his first individual race on this stage. It’s different, certainly, but having the advantage of being here before is big at Penn.

I like the improvements he’s made in his finishing kick and I like his consistency. On the flip side, he’s going to need cut about 5 seconds off his PR to be in the mix for gold. That’s a big PR, but not an impossible one. He just cut about 3-4 seconds off his 800 best.

Nick Dahl 4:17.18 @ Millrose Games (4:10.39 DMR split at Nationals)

A year ago, Dahl was the super soph we were all talking about. After running an absurd 9:02 at Henderson, he went to nationals and ran 9:01.81 for a full two mile (the equivalent of about 8:58 for 3200) and placed 3^rd. That mark put him in the top 10 runners in PA history for the event as just a 10^th grader.

But despite that mark, Dahl’s speed was still a question mark. In fact, the last time the Hoeys, Kolor and Dahl were all in the same race (Meet of Champs Mile at Henderson last year), Dahl was at the back of the group, a decent bit back of Jax and Kolor. But that slowly began to change this past winter. Nick dropped an early 4:14 split at Yale, kicked his way to a spot in the Millrose Games and then dropped his epic 4:10 anchor leg on everyone. His 800 chops have also vastly improved as he split a 1:55 lead off leg at indoor states before dropping a 1:54.20 for 800 last weekend (technically Friday night, which may not be a weekend to all of you out there).

Dahl’s got monster strength and has now rounded it out with speed. That’s a dangerous combination and it makes Nick a real contender in any style of race. He’s had recent experience in a big time mile (Millrose) and although he wasn’t exactly competitive in that race (roughly 6 seconds behind Jaxson Hoey), he grew a lot from that race. Things will be a bit different this time around. He’s also been in a Penn Relays field before (DMR last year) which gives him a little extra experience. However, Dahl is the only one of these 4 runners who will compete in an individual event earlier in the day (GFS has a very competitive 4x8).

Mike Kolor - 4:12.37 @ PA Distance Festival LY

Much like Dahl, Kolor has made great progress in the speed department this year. Kolor dropped to a 1:53 PB during indoors and helped lead his SV 4x8 and 4x4 teams to state qualifying type marks. He still has the strength though (4:15 just last race, cruising to victory) and is looking strong and healthy for an extended period of training (a luxury he didn’t have last year). Kolor, like Dahl and Jax Hoey, has some big mile experience, having run the Boston Indoor Mile this past winter.

Kolor is still looking for his big win as last year was a slew of close calls. He finished alongside Jeff VanKooten at Baldwin and WPIALs, took 4^th at states and then finished just a fraction behind Jaxson Hoey at the PA Distance Festival. That should add a little extra fire to his finishing kick in this race. Kolor’s never been in a Penn Relays event before and will be traveling the longest distance to get here. Only Ryan Gil has finished as the top PA individual in the mile/3k from the WPIAL the past 9 years, a trend Mike will be hoping to reverse.

Jaxson Hoey – 4:11.07 @ Millrose Games

Jaxson has competed in the Penn Relays the past two years, including this exact race as a sophomore in 2014. He ran at the Millrose Games this past winter, Outdoor Nationals and USA Junior Nats last spring and won the past two state titles in the mile/16. His PR is the best of the group and he comes in as our top seed (3^rd overall). His speed was strong enough to carry him to 4^th at indoor states (on the double) for the 800, but his strength was enough to finish a close 2^nd at XC states on the Hershey hills. So, to summarize, he’s good at running.

Jaxson won his last race by a big time margin, but he hasn’t popped that real fast time so far this spring. His brother and Ryan Barton of DTW apparently both sit ahead of him on the state rankings for now, but that could easily change in an instant this weekend.

Order of Finish (Prediction):

Kolor

Jax

Josh

Dahl

I think it’s going to be incredibly close between these four and any of them could cross the line ahead of any one else. But if I have to pick (and apparently I feel like I have to), this is what I will choose.

3,000m

While PA has struggled in the mile, we haven’t felt the same sort of pain in the 3k. In fact, PA has had the champion in 2008, 2009, and 2013 and had top 5 finishes in 7 of the past 9 years. The smart money, therefore, says PA should have at least one runner contending for the title. The etrain money? It says we will have three guys competing for the title.

In the 3k, PA will be represented by Jake Brophy (CB East), Dominic Hockenbury (Lake Lehman), Nate Henderson (JP McCaskey) and Jeff Kirshenbaum (Methacton). Amazingly, Kirshenbaum has run 9:19 for a full two miles (during indoor!) and still ends up overlooked in this group. This is the same kid who broke 16 at Hershey this year and somehow only finished 9^th (amazing). I think Jeff is just a small tier behind these guys, but still on a really nice trajectory for an epic season. I’m hoping we get all 4 of our guys in the top 8 of this race and, although I expect Jeff to be our #4 man, I do think he has the potential to put up the kind of time that would be PA #1 in the right year.

But I think the race for top PA honors (and perhaps top everyone honors) will come down to Brophy, Hockenbury and Henderson. Brophy and Dom have been the big names for some time now. Combined, they have 7 state titles (and counting) with brilliant XC resumes and very quick 3200 PRs. Each of these competed in the 3k final last year (Brophy also competed 2 years ago) and will have that extra bit of experience that Nate will be missing on race night.

But Brophy and Hock are much less similar than they may seem on paper. Hockenbury is not known for his speed or his kick (although both are quite good, he just ran a 4:16 full mile), but he is known for being a gutsy grinder who will push the pace early and often. We saw it indoors over 5k and we could see it this outdoors at Penn in another high quality national field. Keep in mind Hock seems very similar, on paper at least, to Dominic Deluca, who ran 8:21 for 3k in 2014, one of the fastest times in PA 3k history. I honestly think this Dominic could be in line for a similar kind of breakthrough.

Meanwhile, Jake Brophy is known more for his patience and his finishing sprint. He dropped a massive final 800 to win XC states a year ago, patiently ran down the majority of the field at Penn Relays last year and then added to his legacy with his indoor states finishing kick for gold. Jake has already run a 4:15 1600 in a dual meet and split a 1:56 on the 4x8 that qualified here so we know his speed hasn’t gone anywhere since PSU. Considering his resume, this is the kind of runner PA track fans are hoping can pocket a victory, but he will have to be sharp on race day and make sure he stays close enough that he can utilize that kick effectively.

Then there is the newcomer Nathan Henderson. After a relatively quiet indoor campaign in 2015, Henderson went outdoors and dropped all the way to 9:08 for 3200. As just a sophomore. He then dominated the XC scene in District 3 before moving to indoors where he quietly produced some solid invite wins and fast times. Although his indoor state race was impressive (he finished a well-earned third behind Brophy and Hock in the 3k), the start of his spring has been absolutely jaw dropping. The biggest knock on Henderson might have been his finishing kick, but then he soloed a 4:14 for 1600 (breaking a Vince McNally meet record) and, according to twitter just this afternoon, Henderson clocked a 1:53 4x8 split for JP McCaskey (they ran 8:03). That’s one heck of a split.

I think Henderson could end up coming out of left field and surprising considering the momentum tear he is on, but I’m a little bit nervous about his inexperience on this stage and in this setting. Plus, I’d still like to see him close to last lap or two of a 32 with the top kickers. But I will say his mid race surging ability is one of the best in the field and that could keep him in contention for long enough to close it out.

Brophy is the favorite, but I’m a tiny bit worried about the 4x8 being in his legs a little bit. I’m also a little worried about a fast pace and what affect, if any, that will have on his strategy and his ability to kick. Meanwhile, Hockenbury should get the most help he’s had in a while for a fast paced long distance run. If that’s true, maybe he grinds his competitors into the ground and steals it. I really think Hock also learned a lot having run in this race last year. I bet he comes out the gates with a vastly improved time.

Prediction for finish?

Brophy

Hockenbury

Henderson

But I think the top two may be decided by only a second or so and Brophy may be in 3^rd out of those three with 800 or even 400 to go. It’s just hard to pick against the guy. So I won’t.