The Relay Predictions

By Jarrett Felix

The Penn Relays is honestly unlike any other race I’ve ever contested. I had the good fortune of competed in two events at Penn my senior season. The 4x800 prelims on Friday Morning (we barely got in and the only reason we were a barely was because of Sam Ellison) and the 4x400 on Saturday afternoon (a couple of moments before Bolt ran actually). It was an amazing experience, even though neither race went particularly well, and I’ll always remember that weekend.

Not to be too full of myself here, but I like to think that brief moment of Penn Relays revelry taught me a bit about what it takes to be successful at Penn. These are my basic takeaways that I will naturally incorporate into my predictions.

On the first day, we were nervous and excited to race the 4x8. We knew we had barely gotten in by the skin of our teeth and we knew that in a bit over our head. We were prepared for that mental game. However, we were definitely not prepared to be ushered into the waiting area with no time to warm up or throw spikes on or anything. At Penn, they cram everyone like sardines into the waiting area and it’s very tricky to time a proper warm up if you’re a rookie. Then you just stand around anxiously in a jam packed area with no room to stretch out or do strides or anything like you would typically experience at a normal invite or dual meet. Combine that with the big crowd, odd turns (lanes inside of lane 1 are weird) and the fact that you will inevitably realize that this is the Penn Relays and the pressure creeps in with slowly increasing intensity ….

I’d imagine the second time around it’s not quite as big of a deal. Even running a day later, things were a bit less nerve racking and we definitely timed our warm up routine better. So, as per usual, experience and proper preparation can go a long way in this meet.

The other “secret” I discovered back in the day came in the 4x4. Our normal lead off leg was academically ineligible at the wrong moment and left off our squad. That meant our #2 leg had to move up to the #1 leg. At Penn, it’s a waterfall start for the first leg rather than in lines. And there are a ton of teams. Our new lead off leg was definitely nervous about the crowded start, and he was kind of weak and puny so it would be easy for him to get pushed around a bit. Then, as we were waiting in the pre-race zone (for about an hour) we watched as a lead off leg (much bigger and stronger than ours) went down hard, falling directly on the rail. It was a fairly gruesome injury and, after that, I think our lead off leg was just mentally defeated. When we finally got to race, he went straight to the back and that was the end of that.

And yes, I was that lead off leg. Big softie was born a long time ago.

So the lesson? You need to have a good lead off leg who will get out and set up the squad. It can go a long way in a crowded field off a waterfall start. 4x4, 4x8 or DMR. It applies to all three this weekend.

So with those little tips in the back of my mind, let’s dive into the relay analysis. For a list of some of the best times for each of these teams (in a randomly assigned order) feel free to skip down a post.

Heat 1

Bishop Shanahan
The boys from Shanahan took big strides forward this year. They’ve now contested the last three state championships and, although they are essentially Penn Relays rookies, they do have a nice pocket of big race experience to fall back on. Kolimago has been a solid lead-off man, running in that role for a couple years, and he’s a senior who will hopefully handle the moment well. Considering these guys were sub 8 indoors, there’s little reason to doubt their ability to get back towards that time in this meet on the right day. However, they have been relatively quiet in the early spring results.

The key here is likely going to be Seamus Fromhartz, the team’s best leg a year ago, who was coming back from an injury during XC and is still building back up to peak fitness. If he can recapture his peak form from a year ago (he split 1:54) that adds a nice dimension to this relay. Logan Yoquinto, the team’s gutsy sophomore, has a big chance to shine on the big stage. Lots of sophomores have been grabbing the spotlight recently and Yoquinto could be next in line. He ran a very impressive anchor leg indoors and, conceivably, could split down around 1:56 in the right position.

Bottom Line: They will likely miss out on a trip to the COA unless they either have a breakthrough performance from one of the seniors or get a very consistent line up with no one above 2 flat.

Bonner

Bonner may come up in with one of the slower seed times, but they also come in with some of the biggest upside. Sean Sullivan was an indoor state medalist at the mile and ran 1:55 last spring for 800. But Dave Whitfield might be the team's biggest weapon after his huge breakthrough mark of 1:55 at O'Hara. Very few teams can boast multiple 1:55 guys.

The pressure will be on the team's remaining two legs to step in and make a statement about the small squad's depth. If just one of them has a breakthrough day and ends up around 2 flat or under, this becomes a very intriguing under dog.

Bottom Line: They are a long shot for the COA, but they have the legs to make things very interesting on race day. Especially if Whitfield/Sullivan has a huge lead off leg to set the stage.

Heat 2

GFS
I've already gone on record predicting these guys to make the finals on our Penn Relays edition of TheRoundHouse, so I suppose I can't back out now. However, I think the lead off leg will be critical for these guys. Personally, I like the idea of Dahl leading off again like he did indoors, but I think Hepp could be pretty capable in that position as well (and he has experience leading off at Penn which can't hurt). They middle legs will have some pressure as guys who are a bit younger and less experienced in the big moment, but they handled the state landscape pretty well with a couple PR type performances. I don't think they are going to make up ground if the team is out of position, but if they get it in a good spot, I think they can hold ground nicely.

I still feel weird talking about GFS in the 4x8 instead of the DMR, but I'm really excited to see this change. It's good for Dahl and it may be good for the team as well. GFS as a program has been to Penn a number of times in the last decade, so they've got some experience as a school and, with last year's run, some experience as individuals. The pieces are here for a nice run, but they don't decide races based on my blog posts (if only).

Bottom line: This one very well might come down to Grayson Hepp, the senior leader of the squad. If he clocks a 1:54-1:55 type mark, it's hard to doubt this crew, even in a bit of an unfamiliar stage.

Penn Wood

So Penn Wood has been a bit of a mystery for me to place. I think they have a monster group of sprinters, but their 4x8 results have been a bit more inconsistent. Their best two guys, Manyeah and Seck, rarely contest the 800 (Seck is a beast at 400, Manyeah has been mostly high jumping it looks like?) and their core is a decent amount of sprint transfers. However, sprint transfers can be a beautiful think at 800 meters. You can’t teach speed.

I’m most interested to see who their 4th leg is and how fast he can run. Based on Penn Wood’s usual line up, they could be in fantastic position through the first two legs (Manyeah to Seck to x to x) which means if they have get a gutsy run out of the back legs (Jahi Smith and someone else) they could steal a spot in the COA. Who is it going to be that steps up? Todd Jackson or maybe Kenneth Johnson, another 400 guy who could move up and join the others?

Bottom Line: A legit sleeper here to make the COA if their front two legs run to their potential and the back two legs just race and ride the momentum. I want to see Manyeah/Seck run 1:54 on race day.

Heat 3

State College
The indoor state champ has made the COA finals each year for the past decade in the 4x8. I know that seems like a jinx, but it's just worth mentioning as a stat guy. SC also returns 3 guys who ran on last year's team, made the final in 2014 and, oh yeah, ran 7:45 indoors for 2nd at nationals. Add in a Millrose Games victory and this team has all the pieces.

I suppose the only concern I could have is that Owen Wing, their usual lead off man, has never raced Penn before and is, technically, their slowest 800 guy. So conceivably they could get buried off the start. However, I don't see that happening as Wing is coming off a strong 4:23 1600 PR. And, worse case scenario, they have a 1:54-1:56-1:52 threesome behind him ready to make chase.

I'm already kinda putting these guys in the finals (dangerous I know and I hope they aren't thinking like that) and I'm very excited to see how they stack up against the Jamaicans and the other national schools. Keep in mind, we haven't had a COA champ in the 4x8 in the last decade (2nd twice) and I'd love to see us get over the hump with this squad.

Bottom Line: I think this team is in the finals and finished top 3. Maybe wins. Maybe gets close to 7:40 (which I would think would win). No pressure of course.

CB West

I think State College is the clear PA favorite, but CB West seems to be the clear #2 pick. They made the finals a year ago and return 3 pieces from that team. They have 3 guys at 1:57 or faster this spring and they have a gutsy, capable anchor leg in Rock Fortna (although don't be stunned if he ends up in a different spot).

I'm interested to see if their 4th leg can step up and make them a clear team to watch not only in the prelims but also in the finals. I'm also interested to see if Carter Zerweck continues his hot streak he's on right now. Kids running great right now at just the right time.

Bottom Line: I'm a big fan of this team and, assuming no bad luck, I think they are through to the next day. However, nothing is guaranteed.

CB East

It's odd. I feel like the only talk CB East's 4x8 has gotten with respect to Penn is "how will the 4x8 affect Jake Brophy's 3k?" It's like we forget that these guys made finals in this race a year ago and were very close to doing the same thing two years ago. This is a program with serious chops.

Indoors, the team didn't run Jake Brophy or David Endres (break out sub 2 frosh) on their relay and still nearly medaled in the 4x8 before their DQ (and had 3 sub 2 legs by my watch). Brophy is still a star and even if the 8 isn't his best event, it's hard to imagine he won't deliver a huge leg if needed (if he gets the baton out of it, he may go for a jog to save for the 3k, who knows). Shahideh ran 1:56 last year a couple times and Kettleberger was a key member of the squad that made the COA last year as well.

Bottom Line: If Endres can handle the spotlight, there's not a clear weak spot on this squad (and there's actually a ton of depth). I don't have them in my COA, but they have the experience and the talent to get there without a doubt. Plus they have that extra motivation racing against their rivals from the west.

Worth noting, I definitely didn't have them in last year and, bang, they surprised me. Why can't it happen again?

Upper Dublin

Happy to see our 4x8 getting in the mix for the first time since I was wearing the Red and Gray. Just like my team, these guys snuck in during the spring, but unlike my team, they don't rely on one guy to do all the heavy lifting on the anchor. That should hopefully keep them competitive with a more balanced attack.

That being said, they will need at least one guy to step up and take on a leadership role. This team has been very good at 4x8 and 4x4 the last two years, but they haven't been great. I'm curious if they will show flashes of greatness when they arrive on this big stage.

Bottom Line: They are definitely a long shot to make the COA, but I think this will be a very valuable experience for this team/relay. Very excited to watch the Cardinals race.

Heat 4

Abington
I watched Abington fairly closely in last year's 4x8 prelims (I was standing next to their coach so it was bound to happen) and they quietly had one of the best performances of the day relative to expectations. Abington also qualified for the 4x8 COA in 2009, 2010 and 2011 (and finished 2nd overall in that final). They understand the formula, they've got some extra experience, and they've spent the past month running almost exclusively relays.

I talked about Penn Woods raw speed, but don't forget Abington's 4x8 is basically the same team that won state gold in the 4x4 (well, it's actually probably more like 50-50 but still). They've got the wheels to do damage and they ran 7:50 indoors. In retrospect, I feel silly for overlooking them on the show. They've got 3 guys with sub 2 marks open indoors (don't think anybody else in the state had that) and their last guy is down to 2 flat outdoors at the very least.

Bottom Line: I think they've got an excellent shot at being one of the top 3-4 teams in PA at this race. Sophomore Cameron Mitchell will be an important piece, but they will also need a big run from Jake Good if he ends up the lead off leg. If their lead off leg runs 1:56-1:57, I think they will be running this back on Saturday.

North Penn

Out of all the teams with historic resumes, North Penn has the best when it comes to the 3200. Although they don't have quite the same prowess in recent years, this program has absolutely dominated this event for the past few decades and was PAs only qualifiers in the 2007 and 2008 finals.

This year's team, however, is a bit of a question mark. After they left some of their sprinters off the indoor squad, there's speculation they may do something similar on Friday morning. As one of the lower seeds entering the meet, they will need all the pieces they can to compete at a high level.

That being said, I'm betting that Dante Watson and maybe another 400 type jump in and help out on the 4x8 (plenty of time to recover before the 4x4 on Saturday). I can't wait to see what kind of wheels Watson has on the relay and I hope he runs an early leg and gets after it. Also interested to see how the sophomore O'Toole rises to the occasion.

Bottoms Line: I'm not expecting a performance to rival the North Penn squads of old, but I am looking to see if this team can prove it is a school the rise this spring.

LaSalle

Just like Abington last year, LaSalle really impressed me in the Penn Relays prelims last year. I think it was one of the best showings by this relay in the last two years. It doesn't hurt that, like Abington, LaSalle has qualified for the COA twice in the last 7 years and they also, unlike Abington, added a Penn Relays wheel in 2013 for the DMR. So the infrastructure is there for an upset and a COA experience.

And the materials are there as well. At the Knights invitational, the LaSalle distance squad dominated, with prominent wins by Evan Addison and Patrick Grant (a huge 1:56 time). They will need to harness that momentum heading into Penn as the Explorers have arguably struggled a bit in their last couple state appearances on the track.

Bottom Line: I love this team and this program, but I can't pull the trigger on a COA birth. The key to a big day might be their order and whoever ends up being their third leg. If Grant gets the baton in a good spot, I think he will run tough, but I'm not sure he has the raw ability to hawk down the field. Of course there's a chance Addison may end up on the anchor (which would be fun). If you remember, this was the meet sophomore Tom Coyle had his first big break (splitting 1:54). Your move sophomore Evan Addison.

CR North

The Forrests have been on a monster run this year. Despite their youth, the team has peaked perfectly for the past two state championships and finished with a surprise 4x8 medal during the winter. Now, no one would be surprised if they medal outdoors, but they are still far from favorites to even finish in the top half of PA's squads this meet.

But CRN has been on fire, lifted by the hot streak of Bryan Keller, who just added a jaw dropping 1:56 gold medal win to his resume at Abington. Sam Early also cracked two minutes in the open 8, giving this team 4 (maybe 5 depending on Ryan Campbell) legit sub 2 legs. They are arguably the deepest squad we have to offer outside of reigning state champs State College.

Bottom Line: I don't have them making the final. That being said, I'm pretty surprised they haven't gotten more talk. This could be a legit dark horse team. Especially if their lead off leg, whoever it ends up being, sets the tone for the rest of the squad.

Final predictions. I've gotten more optimistic in the past couple days! I'm on board for 4 PA teams in the final: SC, CBW, GFS, Abington.

The DMR

O'Hara
PA's only school in the DMR is a good one. As we discussed on our latest episode of TheRoundHouse, the magic number for this team seems to be 10:20. They ran 10:24 indoors with a solo anchor leg and some doublers, but they also had a near perfect race to pull off the upset. Only one of the 3 of us on the show took these guys to go sub 10:20 in this meet.

For the record, O'Hara boys, it was me so feel free to rock that etrain shirt this weekend.

Here's my case for a big day for OH. First of all, they have something to prove after their fall at indoor nationals. Second of all, this team has a pretty nice history at this meet (although not a spotless history I will admit) and has qualified in this event 5 times in the last decade (could have been 6 if they ran last year). Plus, I think their legs set up very nicely for this event. Morro is a natural 1200 guy who ran lead off on two state title teams. The Jones boys are not afraid to go out hard and keep competitive (Justin ran 1:57 last year). Ryan James will have to bottle some of that same magic he had indoors, but he should at least have some more competition out there when the baton ends up in his hands.

I could see these guys pulling a CB South 2012, putting together a solid front 3 and letting their anchor try and steal it. 2012 CB South came in with even more modest PRs (besides probably Gregor) and finished 2nd.

Bottom Line: The DMR is loaded, so even a sub 10:20 mark is going to put you in a crowded space. It's going to be tough for these guys no doubt, but if they keep their heads above water they will at least leave with some real nice PRs.

I really like the 2012 CB South comparison so feel free to look that one up.