A Way Too Early Look at the 2017 NCAA XC Seaon

A Way Too Early Look at the 2017 NCAA XC Seaon

​The 2016 cross country season has come and gone. In a year that the team title was up in the air all season and the individual title was all but guranteed, the favorite NAU captured their first national championship and the unbeatable Edward Cheserek was defeated. It was an exciting season, and now we’re at the unfortunate time of waiting for indoor. Why not take this time to look ahead to next year and what could possibly go down?

Team Battle

​Much like this year, several programs will be vying for the podium in 2017. This year’s winner, Northern Arizona, will likely one again be a favorite for the top spot. Of course, the Lumberjacks will lose two key components of this year’s historic squad: low stick Futsum Zienasellassie and head coach Eric Heins. In what has to be one of the best decisions in NCAA running history, Zienasellassie redshirted in 2015 for a chance at the team title in 2016, and oh boy did it pay off. None the less, NAU will have to try and replace this year’s 4th place finisher, and just ask Syracuse how hard it is to supplant a top 10 guy. Luckily for NAU, they already secured Coach Heins’ replacement in Mike Smith. The former Hoya played a large role in coaching the 2016 team, so his transition to top dog shouldn’t be a problem. Making Smith’s job even easier is the return of several of NAU’s key guys from 2016. Matt Baxter and Tyler Day are both top 25 runners from Terre Haute, finishing 11th and 23rd at Nationals respectively; Day had an outstanding campaign, consistently finishing well for NAU. Baxter had one bad race in 2016, finishing 22nd at the Mountain West Regionals, but his 8th place finish from Wisconsin and his performance in Terre Haute bode well going into 2017. Look for Day and Baxter to both be low sticks for the Lumberjacks in 2017, as each has top 10 upside. Another key returner for NAU will be Cory Glines, who’s experience and talent will prove to be vital for NAU as they pursue a repeat. Glines had a disappointing showing at Nationals, finishing 84th, but his 20th place finish at Wisconsin in addition to strong races at conferences and regionals highlight his All American potential for next year. NAU’s potential 4th runner for next year may have been their most important runner from Nationals this year: Andy Trouard. The underrated junior finished 37th at Nationals seemingly out of nowhere, as he was often overshadowed by runners like Day, Baxter, Zienasellassie, Nathan Weitz, and Glines in 2016; if Trouhard is able to build on his race from Nationals, NAU is looking at potentially four runners in the top 30. Rounding out NAU’s top 5 scorers will likely be Geordie Beamish. In his first collegiate cross country season, Beamish barely scraped into the top 100 at Nationals, finishing 97th. Beamish did manage an outstanding race at Wisconsin, finishing 31st overall. Look for Beamish to continue developing in 2017 and provide NAU a strong final scorer. Although he’s more of a track runner, Peter Lomong does provide NAU with some depth should injuries occur. Given the experience and talent of NAU’s returners, lookout for the Lumberjacks to pull off the incredibly rare back to back national championship. 

​Every year Stanford is a title contender, and every year they fall short. Could 2017 be the year Stanford finally gets over the hump? They certainly appear to have the talent on the roster. Leading the Cardinal will be stud Grant Fisher, who’s 5th place finish this year at Nationals is second-best among all returners. Fisher should be in contention for the individual title and is a near lock to be top 5 given his consistency. Following Fisher should be Thomas Ratcliffe, who’s first ever cross country season ended with an unfortunate DNF at Nationals. Outside of that disappointment, Ratcliffe flashed loads of potential, winning the Stanford invite in a blazing time and finishing an ultra-impressive 8th at PAC-12s. Ratcliffe showed McGorty/Fisher-like ability in 2016, and I like him to be a second low stick for Stanford in 2017. Rounding out Stanford’s top 5 is difficult to project: Jack Keelanhas shown a lot of talent, but it’s never translated to a really strong showing at Nationals. He did manage a top 10 finish at regionals in 2016, and Stanford will need an equally strong showing in 2017 if they are to win a national title. After a rough outing at Wisconsin, Steven Fahy had a strong sophomore season culminating in a respectable 59th place in Terre Haute. Should he continue to improve, Fahy will be a key runner for Stanford’s title hunt in 2017. Alex Ostberg is hard to gauge, as he’s never been healthy enough to run a full collegiate season on the grass, but we know from high school he has talent. If he finds his grove in 2017, Ostberg has the potential to run with some of Stanford’s top guys. In addition to the talent already on the roster, Stanford will add a talented freshman class, which will include elite recruits like Callum Bolger, David Principe, and Michael Vernau. With buckets of ability Stanford will have, 2017 just might be the year the Cardinal get it right and take home a national championship. 

​As long as Colorado is coached by Mark Wetmore, they will be in the conversation for a national title. In 2016, it appeared the Buffalo had lost too many guys to compete, but still Wetmore still found a way to win the PAC12 title and make Colorado a contender. Despite a disappointing 6th place team finish in Terre Haute, there is plenty to be excited about for 2017. The Buffalo will be led by classmates and best buds (seriously, look at their twitter interactions) Joe Klecker and John Dressel. Klecker, a redshirt freshman, was one of the NCAA’s breakout stars, as a season which included a 24th place finish at Pre Nationals, a top 20 showing at PAC12s, and a 3rd place performance at regionals, culminated in All American honors. Dressel was also an All American in his sophomore campaign, but his 33rd place in Terre Haute was somewhat disappointing given he placed better as a freshman. Look for Dressel to rebound in 2017, and form one of the best 1-2 punches in the national with Klecker. Following Klecker and Dressel is another pair of classmates in Zach Perrin and Ryan Forsyth. The duo had a poor showing at Nationals, finishing 125th and 74th respectively, but their top 10 showings at PAC12 indicate they’re far better than that. If Forsyth and Perrin find some of that Wetmore magic, Colorado could find themselves with two more studs (see Connor Winter, Morgan Pearson, Jake Huryz, etc). Colorado will also feature Eduardo Herrera and Phillip Rocha, who will be freshmen after their redshirt seasons this year. Both were high profile recruits for the Buffalo, and each could breakout just as Klecker did this year. Add in 8:43 steeple chaser Adam Peterman and all of a sudden Colorado has the potential to once again upend the field at Nationals. 

​Two other teams that have national championship level talent at the front end but lack depth are Arkansas and Syracuse. Arkansas touts arguably the best top 3 in the country, with 2016 top 20 runners in Jack Bruce and Alex George both returning, and the uber-talented Andrew Ronoh coming back for his second XC season as a Razorback. George was consistently great all year in 2016, while Bruce for the second straight year was inconsistent during the regular season but finished in the top 25 at Nationals. If Ronoh lives up to his billing, Arkansas could feature 3 in the first 25. The remaining scorers for Arkansas, however, are a bit of a liability. Cam Griffiths has impressive track times and was a solid 48th in Terre Haute this year, but his inconsistency is a bit of a concern. The final likely scorer is Austen Dalquist, whose 196th showing at Nationals doesn’t inspire much confidence. The good news for Dalquist and the Razorbacks is he did run well at Pre Nationals and SECs (29th and 9th place), and his absence from Regionals could indicate his 2016 Nationals race may have been influenced by injury. Arkansas has an explosive top 3, but probably lack the talent 1-5 to win. Syracuse also features a 3 loaded with talent, led by 2017 individual favorite Justyn Knight. The senior from Canada was arguably the best runner in the NCAA across the entire cross country season, even if he did finish runner up to Patrick Tiernan in Terre Haute. Collin Bennie also enters his senior year with an impressive resume which includes two top 20 performances at Nationals. If Bennie regains his 2015 form, the Orange will boast the best 1-2 punch in the NCAA. Philo Germano may not be in the same tier as Knight or Bennie, but he does plenty of talent; Germano was an All American in 2015, and his 2016 regular season was outstanding. Syracuse’s probable 4th scorer is one of the most mercurial runners in the entire NCAA, as Iliass Aouani (or vowel-guy, as I nicknamed in the blog’s group chat) had a debut season in Syracuse that featured extreme highs and lows: The Italian transfer was impressive at Panorama Farms and ACCs, but he was 86th at Wisconsin (and fell over 50 places in the final 2k) and 128th at Nationals. Syracuse’s final scorer will likely be a runner with limited championship experience: Pennsylvania alums Griff Molino, Kevin James, and incoming freshman Noah Affolder are all contenders, while New York native Aidan Tooker will also be in the mix. Syracuse’s front loaded team lacks the talent and consistency to compete for the top spot at Nationals in 2017. 

​2016’s cross country season was a lot of fun as a fan. Debate over which team would hoist the championship trophy was heated. Personally, I spent many a night lying in bed biting my nails trying to make sense of the team battle. 2017 should be no different.