2017 Penn Relays 4x800 Preview

4x800m

To give you a quick overview, the process for qualifying for the Championship of America is pretty straightforward: run one of the 12 fastest times and you are in. Heats don’t really matter except in the sense that your heat determines what level of competition you have and what level of crowdedness you are dealing with. The qualifying heats are run Friday morning with the finals on Saturday.

PA has had solid success qualifying teams for the Championship of America. We handle the cold (and typically windy) mornings fairly solid and usually send a couple teams through. Here’s a look at our recent qualifiers:

2016 – State College (4^th), CB West (11^th)

2015 – Pennsbury (4^th), CB West (7^th), CB East (12^th)

2014 – State College (6^th), Pennridge (10^th)

2013 – Cumberland Valley (4^th), Bensalem (5^th)

2012 – Pennridge (10^th), Chambersburg (12^th)

So recently, we’ve got about two a year. In each of the past five seasons, we’ve qualified the indoor state champ in the 4x8 and then a hodgepodge of others. Chambersburg, Cumberland Valley, Pennridge (2014), and CB East were all out of the 4x8 picture indoors and then turned on the jets at the right time for outdoors.

This year our top two teams from the indoor 4x8 are in the DMR, meaning we’ve got no “locks” to qualify for the championships. However, I’m still feeling optimistic about PA’s chances of getting 2-3 teams into the final. The dream would be to send 4 for the first time since we took a quartet in 2011 (and the two years prior).

There is no guaranteed winning formula to advance, but I look at a couple things when I consider potential qualifying relays. First, you need to have some experience. I remember when I ran in the Penn Relays once (humble brag) and I ran terrible (humble insult). They kept us in the waiting area for way longer than I thought, after we rushed to get in there because we were running late. Couldn’t really stretch and mentally was out of it before even hitting the oval.

Second, you need to have a good lead off leg. This part is extremely critical. Our lead off leg was solid, running around 2:01-2:02 that season, but he was out in 58ish and was in dead last. Now we weren’t expecting to do much (we were only there because Sam Ellison carried us with a 1:53 split), but if we were a team trying to make noise it would have been pretty brutal to try and have to come all the way back from the dead and pass a ton of quality teams (the heats are pretty packed out there). The comeback has been done (Henderson survived a 2:05 lead off in 2010 thanks to splits of 1:57-1:55-1:52 behind him), but it’s really tricky. Especially in the large school races.

I think the best formula is to get out front and stay there. It’s easier said than done, of course, but teams that can do this well should be fun to watch on race day.

Now, let’s preview the teams.

Small Schools, Section 1

Bishop Shanahan – 8:00.16

The BS boys surprised a lot of people when their 4x8 won the slow section at indoor states and ran a blistering time of 8 flat. Without their best runner. Now they will try to one up that achievement as reigning Penn Relays Mile Champion Josh Hoey rests up for his individual event. But the BS boys won’t be without a Hoey in the line up. Freshman Jonah Hoey will try and help advance his team to the finals after a breakthrough 1:57 clocking at the Warrior Invite. Pair him with Logan Yoquinto (1:55 split at indoor nationals), and you have two guys who can get you under 8 with a decent supporting cast. It’s also worth noting that Yoquinto is the lone returner from a BS squad that was 3^rd in their small school section a year ago.

The key to a Shanahan COA birth will likely be Keegan Hughes. The 400 meter runner split a 48.29 on last year’s 4x4 squad here at Penn Relays and the latest intel says he’s going to be trying to move up to help round out this relay. If he can piece together a strong second lap and keep a consistent presence at the front of the race, this relay becomes pretty dangerous.

Prediction: This team has surprised me before and may surprise me again, but I think there is a bit too much pressure on a freshman and a 400 runner to give me confidence this team will advance to the COA. They should contend well in this heat, however, if Hughes can keep his split near 2 flat.

Small Schools, Section 2

Seneca – 7:49.05

Yes, ladies and gentleman, the boys from Seneca are already running faster than they did last year when they torched the AA state championship 4x8. This squad returns all 4 members from that squad (and may have even upgraded one of the spots). Last outdoors, the team’s top 3 legs had splits of 1:56, 1:56.0 and 1:53. The 4^th leg was 2:04 (solid for sure) so if they have a guy at 2 flat these days, you are looking at 7:46. But even if they can just duplicate their 7:49 performance, they shouldn’t have much trouble qualifying for the finals.

I really like the idea of Phoenix Myers in the lead off spot. He doesn’t have any Penn Relays experience, but he’s raced some big meets at the Armory and should be reasonably comfortable on this stage. He’s been one of the best guys in his classification of the state since his freshman season and can run 1:56 on a relay. That should set them up well. They also have Adam Hanes (great 400 speed, the 1:56.0 split from last spring) who could step into that role and be decent or run a big carry in the back half of the relay to set up their anchor. Keep it close and Donovan’s resume says he brings this one home.

Prediction: Now nothing is guaranteed, especially for a small school traveling all the way across the state to Philly, but I think the Seneca boys will be this year’s PA “hodgepodge” qualifier for the COA.

Penn Wood – 8:05.45

Penn Wood made the COA a year ago, so they’ve got some experience on this stage. Plus, I like the way they typically try and race. Dennis Manyeah has been the team’s go to lead off leg for the past three seasons as they have made their meteoric rise to state elite in the 3200 relay. Manyeah has a 1:53 PR and his really clicking at the right time, having run 1:55 and 49 from scratch this spring. I think he could hand off the baton in his first place on his leg and set up the team for a sleeper run.

Prediction: I think they need to drop too much time to make the COA. At least one of their back legs is going to have to take a leap and become a sub 2 leg to get Penn Wood to the next level, but I think this could be a team that we look back on after Friday ends and say “Wow, they really did a nice job”.

Large Schools, Section 1

State College – 7:51.31

The boys from SC were likely hoping for a little more in the 4x8 this past indoor season, as they finished 4^th at states the year after their indoor and outdoor title sweep. However, the Little Lions still ran a blistering 7:51 time and, perhaps more importantly, doubled back to put together a terrific 10:22 in the DMR. That speaks to this team’s heart and resiliency.

State College has plenty of strong pieces. They already have clocked up times of 1:55, 1:58, 1:58 and 2 flat this outdoor season. Assuming Owen Wing is manning the first leg, he has experience in that role from his Penn Relays trip a year ago. Wing has split in the 1:56ish range and ran 1:58 on the double this past weekend off a 4:21 1600. The key will be to keep things close for anchor Nick Feffer. Feffer is running in his third straight Penn Relays and has the ability to run 1:52-1:53 type split when he is on. After a couple hard fought silvers at Shippensburg, he may even have a little extra spark to get his team over the hump.

Prediciton: I’ve got these guys getting in as well. I’m banking on a big split from Nick Feffer, but Joey Feffer may just as important of an x-factor. He and Chris Diperna are Penn rookies who will need to deliver quality splits to make things reasonable for their anchor.

Pennsbury – 7:57.11

The boys from Pennsbury are a team I’ve been very high on all season. For starters, they’ve got Eric Kersten. He was the lead off leg for Pennsbury’s 2015 COA qualifying squad as a sophomore and delivered a high quality lead off leg under pressure. They’ve also got Jed Scratchard, who ran 1:57.60 during the indoor season. But their newest x-factor has been Aidan Sauer, a guy with a familiar last name and a 1:58.96 season best. By PR, those front 3 legs are all well under 2 minutes and considering the team has had a couple others hovering near 2 flat this year (Javier Linares, Dan Mink), there’s no reason to think this team can’t pop off a low 7:50s performance on the right day.

Prediciton: I have this squad on the outside looking in for a COA appearance. They ran well at indoor states, but their best time is actually from the Millrose Games. This squad will have to prove their clutch factor is where it needs to be to survive the grueling qualifying round.

CB East – 8:00.59

There’s a lot to like when it comes to CB East. For starters, this is their 4^th straight season in the 4x8 at Penn Relays, meaning they have been gaining consistent, valuable experience. Second: they’ve got talent. On their roster right now is a 1:56, 1:57 and 1:57 crop of talent. Ata Shahideh is a PR vet with sub 50 second quarter speed. Marc Motter has been fantastic this year and has the ability to pop off a huge time. I think he likely will handle lead off duties and the guy is very strong in that role. Meanwhile, sophomore David Endres has been rapidly ascending. He put together a fantastic 1:57.97 open PR, but also has dropped some sub 2 relay carries that inspire confidence. Although Endres is just a sophomore, I’ve really got confidence in his ability to shine on this stage.

The x-factor here will be leg #4. CB East can perhaps advance with a leg in the 2 flat to 2:02 kinda range, but, assuming weather is reasonable, I don’t think you can survive with much slower than that. Let’s see what (and who) CB East has ready to step into that role.

Prediction: I think these guys will be out as well. Of course, I picked against them in the past and they proved me wrong. A huge day from Motter would go a long way.

Large Schools, Section 2

CB West – 7;51.22

CB West has made the COA finals two seasons in a row. If they get a 3^rd, that will put them up there with PA’s all-time great programs. Jake Claricurzio has been on the teams that advanced each of the past two seasons. Since then, Jake has become a 1:53 guy, first in a split at outdoor states, and now with an open time to win the Knights Invitaitonal. He alone could carry CB West to a time in the low 7:50s assuming an average day from his teammates.

And Claricurzio doesn’t exactly have average teammates. Brian Baker ran a 1:56.04 at the Knights Invitational as well, after already splitting 1:57 at indoor states. Teagan Fortna, who didn’t even run on the team’s 3^rd place indoor squad, ran 1:57.78 at the Knights Invite and then, finally, sophomore Luke Fehrman ran 1:59.19. Fehrman ran 1:57 at indoor states as well.

So by personal best that’s a 1:53, 1:56.0, 1:57 and 1:57 from this crew. Puts you in the 7:45ish range on a perfect day. Can any other team in the state boast something comparable to that?

Prediction: This is my team to watch for this race. I think they will be our top squad on Day 1 and Day 2. Unfortunately, that probably means I just jinxed them.

North Penn – 7:59.49

It’s kind of like clockwork now for the North Penn boys. This 4x8 dynasty churned out a sub 8 time at the Jim Kelly Invite and punched their ticket to states. They’ve also already clocked 3:22 in the 4x4 for good measure. Dan Santiago, who had a fantastic race at Penn Relays last year, has already clocked an open time of 1:56 and could be the next big thing for a program that has developed more 1:54 guys than I have blog posts (well … blog posts this month perhaps).

Prediction: I like the team. I respect the program. But I don’t think these guys will get in. I’m much more interested to see how their pieces are developing for a long term look at what they could do come outdoor states. That’s where I think they will be most dangerous.

Abington – 8:00.72

So I’m split on this one. One the one hand, Abington has put together an excellent season so far individually. Josh Coleman, Orion Frazier and Cameron Mitchell are all easily under 2 minutes by season best, including a 1:57.76 from Coleman. Cam Mitchell has run some monster legs in some very important meets, including two trips already to the Penn Relays. Aaron Sooknanan has run 49.71 for 400 meters and has won a ton of golds in that event. I’m pretty sure he dabbles in the 800 as well (Abington tends to develop their 400 guys to do both and Sooknanan fits that bill).

But we are still waiting for our first sub 8 relay from the Galloping Ghosts in 2017. They have run 8:01 outdoors (in a winning effort I believe) and 8 flat indoors. They will, in all likelihood, need to crush the 8 minute barrier to have any sort of shot at the COA. Can they cut that much time off their season best? On paper, certainly. But races aren’t run on paper.

Prediction: Plot twist, I think Abington gets in! This is completely a hunch, but I’m playing it. Look, Abington has been a bit up and down dating back to last season when they heroically pulled out a silver at outdoor states thanks in large part to a 1:51 anchor leg from Broadus (who has since graduated). This is a really solid program, they have some Penn Relays experience and they have a ton of talent just waiting for the opportunity to shine. It’s far from a guarantee, but I think the ghosts gallop to Saturday as one of the last teams in the final.

CR South – 8:05.12

The boys from CR South barely squeaked their way into the Penn Relays this season, running a season best of 8:05.12 for one of the final large school spots available. But don’t get it twisted, the CRS boys can move. They have a ton of 400 meter speed at their disposal (3:22 indoor 4x4) and they’ve got a top tier runner in Evan Kutney (1:57.22 indoor nationals split). The question becomes, can they get 1 or 2 other guys under 8 minutes? If so, they become an interesting sleeper pick.

Prediction: These guys are a real long shot for the finals so my gut says they won’t advance past Day 1. That being said, this is a great team who can’t be underestimated. I’m hoping they put up a good fight and out run their seed.