Penn Relays Individual Preview

By Jarrett Felix

Does absence really make the heart grow fonder? Eh, maybe in certain circumstances, but in this case I'd imagine absence just made the heart wonder what etrain's opinions were about the Jim Kelly Invitational. Well, unfortunately, your hearts will likely continue to wonder as I'll be skipping weekend recaps this week and jumping right to the Penn Relays preview. Inevitably some recappy topics will crack the preview as many of these teams/individuals were busy in the days leading up to the release of Franklin Field's final featured foursomes. How bout that for some alliteration? How's your heart feel now?

All hearts aside, let's jump right into things here by discussing PA's entries in the Penn Relays Individual events. 

Mile

A year ago, sophomore Josh Hoey stunned the PR crowd, defeating a stacked field to win the individual mile title in 4:11. Considering that 1) Hoey wasn't even if the fastest Hoey on paper entering the race, 2) had a PR some 6 seconds slower than his final time, and 3) kid was still just a sophomore it was pretty wild to see Josh leave with the title in a classic 250 to go style kick.

This year Hoey comes in under much different circumstances. He's not sneaking up on anybody as the defending champion and #1 seed. He's already run 4:08 for the mile meaning, if he did drop a 6 second PR again he'd be the state record holder in the mile. Josh is also now a state champion, a 1:51 800 runner and a Boston Mile Champ over 4 flat man DJ Principe. 

Hoey's win a year ago as a 10th grader put him in rare company. If you remember back a kid by the name of Drew Hunter won the Penn 3k as a sophomore before going on to become mile and DMR champ in the next two years. If Hoey picks up a win, he becomes a rare two time underclassmen winner. In addition, the only two time individual Penn Relay champ I know from the PA circuit is the now often mentioned Paul Vandegrift, who won a pair of 1500 championships in his day. Hoey could match Vandegrift's mark with a year to spare with a gold.

There's technically a chance we see Hoey doubling on PR Friday. Bishop Shanahan is qualified for the 4x800 trials and, considering they ran 8 flat without him, they could definitely push 7:50 with him, which would likely mean a spot in the Championship of America. However, they ran 8 flat without him so they can be competitive, have a good experience, and still let Josh roll off fresh legs and get after his title defense. That feels much more likely to me.

PA's other top entrant is Tristan Forsythe of Winchester Thurston. The small school competitor is now officially on the large school radar after he medaled for the 5th consecutive season at indoor states. Forsythe matched his career best with a 3rd place mark indoors, running 4:16.53 behind super hero Noah Affolder and the meteor that was Liam Conway at PSU. That mark put Tristan in the driver's seat for the AA state title in the 1600, a gold that would be first individual medal in that all important color. A big step toward gaining momentum for that moment should be the Penn Relays mile. By now, Forsythe has compiled a good amount of experience on the big stage. He's run the Nike XC Regional meet (and done well), he's run the Millrose Mile (and PRed) and he's led or fought for the lead in multiple state championships. Dude can handle this stage and could maybe produce a new PR for himself around 4:15. 

Forsythe has raced sparingly in the past few months (I don't think I've seen any outdoor marks from him), but he seems to show up ready to roll for the big meets so I'm not too concerned about his health or fitness.

Just like Hoey, Forsythe is only a junior. Not bad to have two juniors vying for a top spot in one of the east coast's most prestigious meets. These two are special talents that I hope can produce some strong performances on race day.

3,000m

PA will be well represented in Philly's seven and a half lap affair on Friday night. Leading the way is Nate Henderson, the reigning indoor state champion at this same distance and PA's top finisher from this exact same race a year ago. As a junior, Henderson ran a strong race, outlasting multi time state champs Jake Brophy and Dominic Hockenbury en route to a very quick 8:24.08 and bronze medal.

Nate's got a realistic shot to win this thing. Although he hasn't popped off the 4:14/1:53 type marks he did this time last year, he's still run excellent times and, just importantly, has gained poise and confidence as a senior. He's been on stages this big before including Footlocker's championship in the fall. 

I think Henderson will be pretty focused on the long haul in 2017, hoping to defend his title outdoors, and that could take a little spark away from his performance relative to a year ago (when Penn was perhaps his best mark of the spring).

If he does falter, a familiar foe with be following formidably in his footsteps. Zach Lefever of Ephrata has spent a good amount of time in Henderson's direct shadow over the past few seasons. That's not a bad place to be as Lefever has racked up a hodgepodge of district and state medals in that time, including a 4th place finish in XC and a 3rd place performance at indoor states. 

Although Lefever isn't a Penn Relays vet, I like the kids clutch factor. He grabbed an outdoor state medal in hot conditions last spring and was the top D3 runner in the process. He reminds me a bit of how Henderson looked heading into Penn Relays a year ago. A strong runner, on a gradual ascent who ran a strong 3k PR at indoor states. Lefever hasn't necessarily showcased the raw foot speed that a time in the 8:20s would seemingly need, but he has done a nice job on the blossoming Ephrata 4x8 in spots. I wouldn't rule him out as a sleeper for a top 3 spot in this race.

Arguably the best of our 3k crop so far this spring has been Connor McMenamin of Souderton. The senior was right next to Lefever at the past two state championships and has continued to improve through outdoors. He ran a 1:56 on the double in a dual meet, won some hotly contested 1600s (including a 4:19 victory over Liam Galligan and Owen Ritz) and showed impressive speed. He has a state medal in the mile from the 2016 indoor season, something none of his PA compatriots in this field can boast. Plus, McMenamin has run a killer 3200 within the past 6 months, as he ran under 9:20 at the WC Henderson 3200 in November as a tune up for the Regional Championships (where he was top 20). Connor has all the tools for a breakthrough on race day.

If you are looking for a motivated runner, hard not to take a good look at Ben Bumgarner. An unfortunate fall at the indoor state championships has likely been weighing on Ben's mind for the past months as he has plotted a chance for revenge. Well the AA XC state champ will have his best shot against 4 of the top 5 finishers in the event from indoors at Penn Relays. Bumgarner wants to prove he belongs in with this top tier and, considering he was sub 9:20 for 3200 during the indoor season, he has the skills to do it. His best mark from the 2017 indoor season, converted down to 3k, puts him right there in the ballpark with anyone else in PA this indoor season (with the exception of the alien Noah Affolder who's 2 mile time entered as a 3k might have still been good enough to get him in this field). Bumgarner has flashed considerable mile ability before as well (could have qualified for states a year ago both indoors and out). Plus, he wants to make a statement for the AA boys in PA as the small schoolers have been overshadowed by the big boys before on this stage.

Lastly, we have Seth Slavin of Pleasant Valley. The senior has medaled at indoor states each of the past two seasons and has been the star of District 11 since the Easton boys stepped aside. He's lowered his best in the 1600 in addition to assaulting his 3k and 2 mile bests on the indoor oval. Perhaps surprisingly, Slavin is the first District 11 runner to qualify for the PR 3k in a long time, even though guys like Colin Abert and Kevin Lapsansky have been state medalists in the 3200 (and Abert ran 8:56 ...). I think Slavin has, in the past, sat back early and picked off runners late. That strategy could be particularly effective in a field that is jolted up with energy under the big stadium lights of Franklin Field. 

Predictions

Alright, I guess I'll give you guys a little prediction action since I haven't posted in a while. Here's my guesses:

Hoey wins the mile for a second straight year. Something in the 4:10 range seems appropriate. I anticipate a fast early pace but you never know. Gotta watch for Brandon McGorty on a kick or PA resident, MD high schooler Dalton Hengst.

I think McMenamin ends up the top PA guy in the 3k in a tight group around 3-5 overall. I feel like this race is ripe for a surprise PA victory (Penn Relays 3k has historically been kind to us hometown kids), but I'm not ready to pull the trigger with anybody. If we do get a double victory in both individual events, I gotta imagine that is pretty unprecedented (considering Hoey was our first mile champ since Spooner won when half of you were in diapers). 

And we have interesting sleeper title threats in the 4x8 plus arguably the favorite in the DMR. Could we get a sweep? PA wins everything? Guys, I think it's technically possible. Like in the same way it's technically possible that Pitch Perfect is the best film this century. Some people think it's true, but those people might be a little delusional.

Yep, it's good to be back.