Performance Lists Are Here!


So the performance lists are out which means it’s time for me to start working on my official state championship previews and predictions. But before we jump into those, I figured I’d share my thoughts on some events I won’t be explicitly touching on in my previews and some overarching concepts. Hopefully it whets your appetite for what is to come the rest of the week.

The first thing that has me excited is the AAA team title. Last year the title was perhaps the biggest source of conversation for the outdoor season and the most talked about “event” of the year. That usually is not the case and typically I don’t even know who wins the thing. But now, I’m kinda into it and this year could be a lot of fun because it seems like a lot of different teams can win.

Based on the District One results, Pennridge, Bishop Shanahan, Coatesville and Souderton all had horses and finished side by side in the final team standings. Of that group, I’d probably say that Shanahan’s talents translate best because they have the most super stars, but any of these teams could catch fire and make a charge. You also have D7’s North Allegheny who could get 30 points from on guy (Ayden Owens), but maybe not much more than that, and defending champ State College.

But the team that drives the most interest is Carlisle. The Herd was 2nd in XC and 2nd in indoor track. They really want a win. However, they have their back against the wall post districts and the squad had a big decision to make. Although they won their district meet with 72 points to Milton Hershey’s 45, Carlisle knew they would have a tough decision to make on the distance side of things. They had some medal threats in a variety of events, but doubling in relays would make guys tired and possibly cost them big points down the line.

They were, ironically, left with a somewhat similar decision to make as both DT West and State College were last year. State College ended up running the 4x8 and doubling guys back in the 16 (Milligan) and the 800 (Degleris and Feffer). All three runners ended up scoring, with Milligan winning the 16 in an upset. They also took gold in the 4x8 and a critical silver in the 4x4. DT West, on the other hand, wasn’t built as well for the 4x8. They maybe could have won it, but instead opted to focus on individuals. Henry Sappey and Josh Hoey did the 16 with teammate Ryan Barton while Jaxson Hoey tried his hand in the 800. If not for a couple of miraculous finishes from Milligan and Wilson’s Joe Espinal, that line up would have been enough to give West the title, but, as we by now know too well, SC edged them out.

So Carlisle had to decide if they felt strong about their 4x8 chances or if they should focus on individuals. Because of the relative strength of their 4x8 competition, it appears Carlisle has instead decided to go after individuals. Their big three runners will each have a chance to shine. Sam Affolder is in the 32 and the 16, Isaac Kole is in the 16 and Jack Wisner is in the 8. I think I like the decision, even if it means we are robbed of a Carlisle vs. CB West match up (sorry Pennridge and State College) in the 4x8.

I’ll talk more about each guys chances in the distance events when we get around to it, but it will be fun to see if they can score the points needed to hang with Shanahan in the final standings. I’m predicting Shanahan holds on and defends their indoor title, but I think predicted DT West last year too.

On the AA side, it’s not clear to me who exactly the favorite is (I’m just not familiar enough with the sprints and jumps). Seneca looks like they have an interesting line up to trot out there and Wyomissing looked terrific at their district meet (scored 111 points). Hickory has some sprinters and throwers that could put them over the edge. I think this one seems fairly wide open as well (I think Hickory will win with Wyomissing perhaps making it interesting), which should make for an exciting day of points watching.

In other news, although we knew it might be coming, Brookville’s Ryan Thrush has officially scratched the 800 and will focus on solely the 400. His team is also the 10th seed in the 4x4, which makes them potential medal contenders if he can lift them with a big leg. Although Thrush is the defending champion at 400, he’s going to have his hands full with Kennedy Catholic’s Channing Phillips. This kid is an absolute monster who just ran 21.3 to go with 48.6 at districts. It’s going to be a great match up of speed versus strength in the quarter. The rounds may help Thrush as well. I’m leaning towards Phillips as my pick here, but rooting for Thrush. Hopefully he takes another shot at the 800 before he hangs up his high school spikes. If not, watch for him to do big things in that event at the collegiate level. I think that’s where his future is.

The AAA 400 should be really exciting as well. Miles Green has run 47 seconds in the quarter, but he was beat out last week by Ade Jones-Roundtree. Isaac Elliot from Ambridge is no joke of a 400 runner either and should be right there in the mix. Then you have the D1 guys who had to run trials and finals last week and likely lost a step because of it. Both Rashon Cooke and Mike Welde outdid their current seed times in the prelims, so don’t underestimate either guy on race day. I believe the 400 will be Welde’s only event. Lastly, Austin Padmore, who has run some crazy fast anchor splits for MH’s 4x8, appears to be running this with fresher legs after his 4x8 team scratched out of the prelims. In terms of sleepers, don’t forget about Molek Walker of Grove City. He’s seeded at just 50.13, but has run in the 48s this year and gone up against both Channing Phillips and Isaac Elliot this year and held his own.


The AAA 4x4 has 8 teams within a second of one another at the top of the seeding. 8 teams! That should create some madness in the heats. With 27 teams qualified, I believe they will have 4 different qualifying heats. That means there will likely be just one auto qualifier per heat and absolute madness trying to be that one team. Of course that assumes they actually get to run the prelims this time around …

4 comments:

  1. I think DTW would have won last year had they gone for it in the 4x800. State College went all in for the team championship. SC top guys tripled in 4x800, either 800 or 1600 and 4x400.

    This year is really weird, it might only take low 30's in total points to win it all.

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  2. They'll only have 2 heats in the 4x8, with 12 to finals. They don't run lanes for the 800, waterfall start with allies. There were 15-16 per heat in the 8's last year, and I think 12 in the final may be too many as well, lot of bodies/traffic.

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    Replies
    1. They stuff way too many guys into the 4x8 and 800 trials. Bound to be a fall or dropped baton or something. But to clarify, my comment in the post regarding the 4 heats was about the 4x400 which will likely have a 4 heat prelim with an 8 team final. Haven't seen the heat sheets yet, but don't think you can fit it any other way.

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  3. Still have to say Carlisle is the favorite when you look at their potential to score big points in the 16, 32, TJ, and HJ.

    Sam has proven his strength in doubling and tripling all season so for him to win the 32 and then come back in win the 16 is well within reason. The 32 has the look of an all-time classic race with some of the guys entered in AAA. Henderson vs. Affolder is worth the price of admission (I'd pay even more if the Affolder was Noah).

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