2017 State Predictions: AAA 1600m

AAA 1600m

I’m not trying to brag, but I’ve made a lot of predictions over the years. Sometimes, I really have a good feel for the race and I’m confident in what I post up about it (see: 2015 AAA 3200). Other times I have no clue and the race plays out way differently from what I’m expecting (see: 2016 AAA 800). Considering that my 2017 indoor state predictions got crushed and last year’s outdoor predictions weren’t much better, it would be nice to have a string of events this spring that I’m confident in. Unfortunately, this year’s AAA 1600 is looking a lot like that 800 from a year ago that got us talking before, during and after the race’s final steps. And if you’re hoping for a confident sounding set of eight runners in order than you aren’t in the right place. But, hey, I’ll try anyway.

There are some favorites in this race. For starters, there is Sam Affolder of Carlisle. With the 4x8 off the agenda, it is just the 32-16 double for Sam. Considering he’s been doubling and tripling all year, he should be ready to handle something like this. And considering he’s run 4:08 for 1600 before, he should be fast enough to win this thing. But Sam is still just a sophomore and, assuming he is going all out in both races, he will be trying to accomplish something that, based on my records, has never been done before in boy’s AAA: the 3200, 1600 double gold.

Talented sophomore with a fast older brother who has the fastest time in the field and needs the points for a team title. Sounds kinda familiar right? We saw this with Josh Hoey a year ago and, although Affolder is faster than Josh was at this time last year, he will also have an extra race under his legs to deal with. A potentially very fast, very tiring extra race.

There’s a long line of guys that want this thing if the opportunity arises. Leading the way is the #1 seed entering the meet in Matt Scarpill. Scarpill was an indoor medalist in the 3k and, although he’s had very strong campaigns in the fall and winter, has never before appeared at Shippensburg’s track. Now Scarpill is in a surprising position as co-favorite for the state title in the event. He’s developed a really impressive kick and, in what very well could be a tactical affair, Scarpill feels like the man to beat. That’s a meteoric rise for this senior, but potentially too fast of a rise for him to handle if the pressure gets too burdensome.

That opens the door for a couple other contenders. Liam Conway of Owen J Roberts was second during indoor track and has since run 1:53 and 4:13 (in the same meet no less). He dropped the 800 to put all his eggs in this one basket. It almost resulted in a district title, as Conway a close second to Scarpill at D1 this past weekend, but Liam is hoping it can end with his first state title.

Evan Addison of LaSalle finished right alongside Conway during indoors states and was able to roll through his qualifier in a 4:17 ahead of a strong runner in Sean Brown. Addison may have the 4x8 to deal with which could tire him out for this race, but it’s also very possible (I think likely even) that Addison follows the others lead and focuses purely on this event. Realistically, he should be in the conversation to win it, giving LaSalle their first individual state champ since Tom Coyle won the title as a junior back in 2012. I’ve mentioned the Coyle-Addison comparison too much this year, but it should at least indicate that he’s got a chance to do something special if it clicks on race day.

The guy who hasn’t been getting much talk is Jesse Cruise. All the Cedar Crest senior has done this season is post respectable times. He has run 4:17, 4:16 and 4:16 type performances, holding his own with great runners like Nate Henderson and Sam Affolder. He’s also clocked a 50 point open 400 and has made the state final before in this very event. No one seems to picking him for the title, but why doesn’t he have just as good a chance as anyone else in this group?

The WPIAL is usually good for a medal contender or two, but this year only one of their qualifiers enters the meet with a SQS. It was a wild district championship that featured New Castle junior Le’Shawn Huff pulling off a terrific upset in a massive PR of 4:24.18. Someone would have to confirm, but Huff may have even been doubling as I believe New Castle was in the top 8 or so 4x8 teams on race day. That was a huge win for Huff and the momentum is definitely in his corner, but can he drop another 4-7 seconds to be a legit medal contender? Maybe. This is a wide open race and, I’ve we’ve seen from Huff before, sometimes that means an unknown will walk away with the gold. Regardless, it’s a great story and hopefully a sign of things to come for Huff both this year and next.

In total, this field will feature 8 sophomores, a pretty decent amount. Sam Affolder will grab the most headlines, but I wouldn’t sleep on Wallenpaupack’s Tyler Wirth. It was a big week for District 2 AAA as they had perhaps the most exciting district meet ever and Wirth was right in the middle of it. He split a 1:53 800 on the 4x8 and doubled back to nearly pull out the victory in the 16, running 4:22.69. Wirth has run 4:19 this year on this very track and seems poised to contend for a medal if he can survive the rounds. Jonah Powell of Grove City won his district going away in a time of 4:23 and comes from a long line of Grove City stars. He too could be a factor for one of the final qualifying spots.

While we are on the subject, might as well share with you who I think is advancing to the final:

Auto Qs

Sam Affolder, Jesse Cruise, Bryan Keller, Sean Brown

Liam Conway, Evan Addison, Matt Scarpill, Isaac Kole

At Large qs

Tyler Wirth, Sam Snodgrass, Liam Galligan, Sam Early

Definitely some tough exclusions here. The last spots are very up for grabs in my opinion as a lot of guys are sitting in the 4:20-4:24 range with kicks and big dreams. I picked a few runners with some proven finishes and fresh legs and then also jumped on the bandwagon of some younger up and comers who I think have nice upside. Would be curious to see who everybody else sees advancing.

As we move to the final, I tend to have more questions than answers. How does Affolder handle the double? How tactical is the race? How healthy is Liam Galligan? These are big questions in my eyes. Remember, Galligan was one of the biggest pleasant surprises in 2016, running 4:15 and leading half the race against a slew of all-time greats. He didn’t wow me at districts, but that was a much more tactical affair from the sounds of it. Maybe he goes for it at states and is rewarded.

For whatever reason, I continue to discount Cruise and think this race will likely come down to Affolder, Addison, Conway and Scarpill. If it’s tactical, it’s hard to argue with the closing speed that Scarpill has showcased to this point. It’s also hard to expect anyone to be able to break the kid’s spirit considering the 3200s he has thrown down and his indoor 3k medal. I can’t bring myself to jump on the Affolder bandwagon as I think he is going to be just a touch too tired. So, therefore, here’s how I have the medals shaping up:

8. Sam Early 4:19.69

7. Bryan Keller 4:17.81

6. Jesse Cruise 4:16.95

5. Sam Affolder 4:16.24

4. Evan Addison 4:15.08

3. Liam Conway 4:14.37

2. Matt Scarpill 4:14.20

1. Isaac Kole 4:13.96

Ah yes, the classic etrian switch-ero. Is that how you spell that? No idea. But anyway, I should probably start talking about Isaac Kole seeing as I just picked him to win the 1600 at states despite not mentioning him at all in any of my above analysis. So what gives?

I don’t know how to explain it, but I’m playing a hunch here. Kole has pulled out some down to the wire wins recently, pulling out a crazy 1600 victory over Nick Feffer at Shippensburg’s Invite and also throwing down a killer kick to win the 800 at Districts by a nose. All this time, Kole has been doubling and tripling and still knocking down nice times. This time, he’s going to be fresh without the 4x8 or even the 800 prelims and I think it might pay off. He’s going to have to drop a big PR, but I think this is the kind of race where you can sneak by and pull that off.

I was pretty surprised to see Kole scratch the 800 as I thought he had a good chance to get a medal there (even if he did the 1600-800 double). But then I realized that, because Jack Wisner was agonizingly close to the qualifying standard of 1:57.32 (he ran 1:57.33), the only way Jack would get to race the open 8 was if Isaac scratched out. So I don’t know for sure the thinking, but it appears, Isaac opted to focus on the 16, which may end up his weaker event, to give his teammate a chance to race individually at states. Again, might just be a coincidence, but it seems like good karma is flowing his way regardless of intention.

Look, it’s a bold pick and maybe it backfires, but sometimes you just have to roll the dice, make a surprise prediction and hope that it gets the people talking. Seems like the best way to write a track blog to me.