2017 State Predictions: AAA 800m

AAA 800m

The 800 was my personal favorite event as an athlete so I will always have a soft spot for it. But man the state 800 process has to be terrifying for a coach. Even if you are the best guy in the field, there’s no sure path to the final with two crowded heats of runners sprinting around the track. The conditions have been brutal enough to bounce favorites on a consistent basis. Just last year, our #1 seed heading into the meet didn’t survive the prelims, but that wasn’t the first time. In 2013, Jeff Wiseman was bounced after running 1:52 at his district meet. Long story short, there’s almost no guarantees here so you have to take nothing for granted.

However, Josh Hoey seems to really be clicking right now. His 1:51.60 at Districts is one of the fastest times we’ve ever seen at that meet and is really only behind the great John Lewis in off the top of my head performances. While Hoey probably isn’t running 1:49 this weekend, he also seems a safe bet for at least another 1:51, a realm that nobody else in the field has entered into just yet.

But it has been noted by the readers of this blog that Hoey’s best races have traditionally come when he is not the favorite so maybe the pressure of this moment will be a little overwhelming. If he does falter, he may get his biggest competition from district runner-up Hudson Delisle of Quakertown. Hudson enters as the #2 seed after his 1:52 PR at Coatesville and was the closest healthy runner to Josh during indoor states. Also in the mix is Nick Wagner of Penn Trafford. Despite having run 1:53 as a sophomore, I believe this is Wagner’s first appearance in the outdoor state final. He’s got all the tools to compete for the win, but he will have to navigate rounds for the first time. Wagner was an indoor medalist in the 800 this past winter for the second straight season and won the WPIAL championship in 1:53.

The top two returners from last year’s state championship are Nick Feffer of State College and Derin Klick of Lebanon. Feffer ran a 1:54.50 to win his district meet which I believe is his second best open performance ever, trailing only his state run a year ago. Feffer has definitely been a guy who picks it up as the pressure builds, but he also will be on double duty at states with the 4x8 (and maybe the 4x4) zapping some of the precious energy he will need to defeat Hoey. Klick has had a bit of an up and down year and was 3^rd at District 3’s championship, but he was just a few inches behind Lopez and Kole at that final straightaway. He has yet to surpass his 1:53 performance from a year ago, but he has been knocking on the door for a couple weeks now.

Remember last year’s #1 seed that I talked about at the beginning of the post? That’s Dave Whitfield of Bonner who is back in this year’s field with a lot less pressure on his shoulders. That could help create an opportunity for redemption for the senior who won his section of the 800 at indoor states this past winter. Stephen McClellan, from the same district, is back at states for the third straight year and looking to get back to his 1:53 form of a year ago.

As usual, the battle to make the finals will be crowded. There are a lot of guys in the 1:55-1:56 range either by season best or seed time. Basically everybody who isn’t Hoey, Delisle, Wagner, Isaiah Bailey of Penn Hills (in the 1:54s for a second straight year) or Derek Jones of Cathedral Prep sits in that range. So how the heck are we supposed to sort out these prelims? Well, here’s how I’m guessing at it.

Auto Qs

Nick Wagner, Nick Feffer, Hudson Delisle, Nathan Lopez

Josh Hoey, Derek Jones, Aidan Sauer, Isaiah Bailey

At Larges

Derin Klick, Dave Whitfield, Matt Busche, Yahya Soliman

Unsurprisingly, I went back and forth on this one a lot. There’s going to be at least one guy who wows me and steps up with a clutch performance. I think it’s more likely to come from heat two which seems to have a bit of an opening for those auto Qs. I think Heat 1 is a lot deeper honestly. Just about anybody in that heat could make it to the finals and I wouldn’t be stunned. If someone takes it out fast, they should get a decent amount of at larges, but usually things tend to even out between the two heats when all is said and done.

Forecasting ahead to the final, I think this will be Hoey’s race to win. I’m not sure what the strategy will be and if he will default to someone else to take up the pace (maybe Wagner?), but I would definitely want to avoid traffic and stay out of trouble. If things end up crowded or his run isn’t smooth (he has a long loping stride) that his rhythm could get disrupted and someone could surprise. I’d have to say Feffer probably has the best chance of beating him. I think Nick is going to put a ton into the 4x8 so that makes a gold medal a bit unlikely, but he is probably the next most talented guy in the group.

I like Derek Jones as a wild card. His 1:54.04 runaway victory at District 10’s was a wow moment. That’s well ahead of what Justin Miller did at the same meet last year and Miller went on to run 1:53 at states and grab some hardware. Maybe Jones is a better solo runner, but regardless, it’s hard to bet against this kid if he makes the final.

I’m also a big fan of Nathan Lopez of Eastern York. He almost grabbed gold in the District 3 800 and with a few more bodies to chase, he could end up pushing himself to a big PR. I think a 1:53 kinda mark is definitely in play for him. That’s probably enough for a top 4 finish. Perhaps even more.

Another potential sleeper is Pennsbury’s Aidan Sauer. I hate to do these kind of comparisons, but I feel I ought to mention it. A few years back, Alek Sauer of Pennsbury ran the same double as Aidan during his junior season. Alek split a 1:52 on the 4x8 and then doubled back with a 1:54 open 8 to grab a state medal. That doesn’t really mean anything for Aidan because he’s a completely different person, but I can’t help but think about the similarities. My guess is either Sauer or Eissler grabs a medal on the double from the 4x8. My bet is on Sauer, but either guy is capable.

8. Aidan Sauer, Pennsbury 1:54.50

7. Derin Klick, Lebanon 1:54.23

6. Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford 1:53.84

5. Derek Jones, Cathedral Prep 1:53.70

4. Nathan Lopez, Eastern York 1:53.45

3. Hudson Delisle, Quakertown 1:53.19

2. Nick Feffer, State College 1:53.08

1. Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 1:51.22