2017 State Predictions: AA 800m

AA 800m

A year ago, we witnessed the fastest AA 800 in state meet history as Domenic Perretta stormed through the second lap en route to a 1:50.10 clocking. But just one spot behind him was super soph Kamil Jihad of Neumann Goretti who ran 1:52.23. In the spring of 2017, Brookville’s Ryan Thrush turned the AA 800 up yet another notch as he clocked a 1:50.89 at the Butler Invitational. The time seemed to set the stage for a new meet record this May when Thrush and Jihad met up with one another. However, Thrush scratched out of the 800 in order to properly defend his 400 state title from a year ago. That leaves just Jihad to carry on the record pursuit.

Or does it? Jihad may be the top returner from 2016 and he also holds a 1:53 season best (the fastest of those competing at states in AA), but he ran just 2:00.43 at his district meet, slotting him at #13 on the performance list. I’d personally just chalk that up to the difficult 400-800 double he attempted at districts, but still others may see it as a small crack in the amour.

The top performers from districts were Donovan Myers of Seneca, who led all runners with a 1:57.15 and Tyler Lesser of Miton Area, who clocked a 1:58.05. Assuming everything holds to form, both of these runners would be on their second race of the day when they face Jihad in the final, but both guys have the speed to challenge him anyway. Donovan has run 1:54 on the double already this year and Lesser ran 1:55.11 at this meet last year (#2 returner behind Jihad).

If neither of those athletes can defeat Jihad, it will have to be a relative unknown. The rest of the field is hovering around 1:58-1:59 or even 2 flat and would need a breakthrough just to cross into the medals. Last year it took a, admittedly unprecedented, 1:55, to get on the medal stand.

Let’s flip quickly through the heats.

Auto Qs

Tyler Lesser, Mike Walwro, Brandon Anglemyer, Zac Tingley

Kamil Jihad, Donovan Myers, Robert Reichenbaugh, Matt Geisler

At Large qs

Sam Cunkleman, Matt Kinback, Josue Marcelin, Michael Peters

There’s a few guys in this group doubling off the 4x8 that will hopefully have enough left ot make the finals, most notably the #3 overall seed Mike Walwro of Central Cambria. Walwro, Giesler, Reichenbaugh and Cunkleman all competed in last year’s preliminaries and none made finals. Those will be the most notable redemption opportunities on race day. Chase Varner of Southern Fulton in little known District 5 is another interesting finalist candidate. He was 14^th a year ago in the prelims.

Overall, I think this should be a fun final. It’s going to be interesting to see if Lesser or Myers can find an extra gear after their first races. I personally think Donovan is more likely to have some reserve in the tank although (spoiler alert) I’ve got both of these dudes winning a state gold earlier in the day. The 16-8 double is a bit more doable (just ask Domenic Perretta who did it each of the past 3 years) than the 32-16, but it’s still going to be no cake walk for Lesser.

If either of those two guys are off their game (or both) there’s some prime real estate available atop the state landscape in AA. We are ushering in a new era of stand outs and I’m excited to see who from this crew can step up and fil the big shoes left by the class ahead of them.

8. Zac Tingley 1:57.50

7. Matt Geisler, Trinity 1:57.44

6. Brandon Anglemyer, South Side 1:57.39

5. Robert Reichenbaugh, Freeport 1:57.37

4. Matt Kinback, Lackawanna Trail 1:56.84

3. Tyler Lesser, Milton 1:55.79

2. Donovan Myers, Seneca 1:53.99

1. Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti 1:53.32

Not really much clue what to do with this one once we get passed Lesser. Big potential for a sleeper to emerge, drop a 1:55 and become a household name.