2017 States Preview: AA 3200

by etrain11

AA 3200m

After three years of championships, Lake Lehman’s Dominic Hockenbury has finally graduated and a new champion will be crowned in the boys AA two mile. The man who seemed destined to fill Hock’s shoes this year was Zach Skolnekovich of Quaker Valley. Zach was 2^nd to Hockenbury in both cross country and track states a year ago. He ran under 16 minutes at Hershey and under 9:20 multiple times on the track. I even gave him a shortened version of his last name (Skol) like Hock had before him.

However, things have not held exactly to form. After winning a district championship in XC, Zach was bested by his in house rival Ben Bumgarner of Waynesburg Central for the state title on the grueling Parkview course. Skolnekovich would get his revenge at the Footlocker Regional Championships, but he was left waiting for his next chance at a first state gold. While Skolnekovich sat out indoors, Bumgarner continued to improve his resume, adding a 9:16.14 at 3200. This was faster than Zach has run before or since. It also qualified Ben for the Penn Relays, where he clocked an 8:33 which converts to about 9:11 for 3200 according to milesplit conversions.

But Zach was ready for his next chance to shine. The Quaker Valley senior defeated both Bumgarner and indoor state mile medalist Tristan Forsythe at the Baldwin Invite with a 4:14.00 for the full mile. His menacing kick and great strength were on full display. In a rematch over the shorter distance at WPIALs, Bumgarner prevailed in 4:17 to Skolnekovich’s 4:20 (as both runners finished behind Forsythe). On tired legs, the pair cruised to a 1-2 finish in the 3200 well off their season bests in 9:32 for Skol and 9:50 for Ben.

Now comes their final state meet, an epic rematch between two great rivals. Although only Bumgarner scratched out of the 1600 to put all his focus into the longer event, the first final that each harrier contests will be the 3200 early on Saturday morning. You can expect a full fireworks display on race day.

I should probably mention that there are other people in this race. However, just three others who are entered in this event hit the SQS at districts. The District champ in 3, 4, and 10 all scratched opening the door for some lesser known names to shine in their place. The headliners from this category are Jacob Schulte and Andrew Stanley out of District 6. The pair took 35^th and 36^th at the A XC state championships and Schulte was an indoor state qualifier at the mile. Both of these guys also qualified for states in the 1600 and will run the trials in that event on Friday. They enter as seed #3 & #4 in this race and lead the list of surprise medal contenders.

There are also a ton of guys with excellent XC credentials who could be sitting on a big track PR. Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin was the District 3 champion during cross and pushed hard against Joe Cullen at districts en route to the #2 of 9:40. Ben Littman of Winchester Thurston was the WPIAL A champ in the fall and was a state medalist over 3200 in this event last year. Casey Ellis of NEB, Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock and Wayne Reilly of Minersville were all XC district champs as well. Serfass was particularly impressive on the trials. Lastly, Zachary Wortman of Elk County Catholic deserves a shout out. The District 9 champ in the 3200 was 7^th at states during XC, moving up from 43^rd at the mile. That kind of strategy could pay big dividends if too many runners get caught up in the state hype and chase the sub 9:20 guys at the top of the field.

Looking further down the sleeper list, a pair of freshman will put their skills to the test on the big stage. Andrew Healey, the District 2 champ, and Ben Hoffman, Wortman’s teammate, were both top 40 finishers in XC and now head into the state meet looking to prove something. Hoffman had his best race of the fall at states, proving he’s got a clutch gene, while Healey comes from the same district that produced both state champions in the 3200 a year ago. I wouldn’t read too far into that, but it’s at least worth a mention in paragraph 7 of a preview. Finally, have to give a shout out to Griffin Mackey of Sewickley Academy. The 2015 XC State Champ has missed a lot of time at various points this year, but has battled through it all to provide strong performances. He helped his Sewickley Academy team qualify for states in the 4x8 and also placed 4^th at districts in the 3200 behind 3 of last year’s state medalists in the event (Mackey was a medalist in his own right).

That’s what I will say about this event. The WPIAL was very successful at states a year ago and, although the times weren’t blazing fast at districts, the names are super accomplished and the general resumes are impressive. I’m not sure they will produce 5 medalists like they have in the past (they had 6 medalists last year), but I think they get at least three guys on the podium again, probably with some top spots. Outside of that, I’m mostly going with some names I’ve come to trust in XC for the medal spots. Not many guys have wowed me this spring outside that top two so I’m looking forward to some pleasant surprises in the #derailthetrain category.

The big wildcard for the middle medal spots to me is Brenden Miller. This kid is a huge talent who, as a junior, is learning a lot with every race. He came out of nowhere (in my opinion anyway) to win the district championship in XC, but struggled at the state race to find his footing. I’m curious if he is ready for the biggest stage yet or if he needs a little bit more time to find himself. Brendan is a junior this season. I should note that Miller was 14^th in this race a year ago and will have some extra experience in his back pocket. He was one spot ahead of Wortman and two spots ahead of Serfass, two of his primary competitors on paper for a top spot.

I’m a big Andrew Healey guy. I think this freshman can handle this stage and will continue the strong representation of District 2 in the longer distances. Fun fact: Healey was in 13^th place at XC states at 2 miles before falling back to 33^rd in the final standings after running out of gas on the last mile. This freshman has a lot of guts and, even if he didn’t hold on, that shows me he believes in his fitness and won’t be afraid to go for it.

Now for the big question, who is going to win between Skolnekovich and Bumgarner? For whatever reason, this match up reminds me a bit of the Brendan Shearn-Rico Galassi battles from the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Shearn used to run the 1600 and the 3200 double while Rico used to only run the 32. In their first match up, Shearn got the best of Galassi, taking the win despite the extra race. The second year the two faced off, Galassi came in with a little extra vengeance and managed to defeat Shearn in a windy race.

I’m going with Skolnekovich here for the victory. I’m trusting his closing speed and his grit for revenge as he continues to hunt that ever elusive state gold. Bumgarner should give him everything he can handle, but I think Skolnekovich will take it down with a kick to remember. Regardless of who wins between these two and the rest of the field, I’m excited to see it play out.

8. Andrew Healy, Holy Cross 9:43.07

7. Jacob Shulte, Bishop McCourt 9:42.20

6. Ben Littman, WT 9:40.65

5. Brendan Miller, Upper Dauphin 9:39.98

4. Quinn Serfass, Loyalsock 9:33.70

3. Zachary Wortman, Elk CC 9:31.15

2. Ben Bumgarner, Waynesburg Central 9:19.04

1. Zach Skolnekovich, QV 9:17.55