2017 State Predictions: AA 1600m

AA 1600m

While there are perhaps more compelling top line matchups, I don’t think any event interests me as much as the 1600s for both AA and AAA. In the small school classification, we got about as good as a match up as you could hope for. State leader and 4:14 miler Zach Skolnekovich is going to try the 32-16 double on race day. If he is able to win both, it would mark the first time anyway has completed this particular double gold since 1998 when Tom Parlapiano pulled it off with times of 9:28 and 4:20. Something tells me Skolnekovich will need to be quite a bit quicker to leave with a pair of golds this year.

Standing predominantly in the Quaker Valley senior’s way are a trio of other stars: Joe Cullen, Tristan Forsythe and Tyler Lesser. The best of this bunch in 2017 has been Forsythe. He grabbed a top finish at the indoor state championships and has competed at the Millrose Games and Penn Relays in his junior season. He already has compiled five individual state medals, including a medal in the 1600 last spring and he enters as the fastest seed in this race at 4:16.

Joe Cullen and Tyler Lesser come from a more speed oriented background than Forsythe, although both were very successful in their own right at longer distances. Cullen won the 3200, 1600, 800 and 4x4 at his district championship in D3 and the Wyomissing junior has run 1:55 for 800 and 4:18 for 1600. Like Skolnekovich, he is expected to be on the double for this event, having likely contested the 4x8 for his team. Lesser won the 400, 800, 1600 and 3200 titles at his district meet in a quadruple that would make even Ryan Thrush gasp. He was a state medalist a year ago in the 800, running 1:55, but this season has expanded his state agenda to include the 1600 as well. Lesser ran 4:20.24 to win his district meet over Hunter Crawley of South Williamsport, the top returner from this event a season ago. Lesser, like Cullen and Forsythe, is also a junior.

But there are more standing in the way of a title (it’s a lot of dudes in a narrow hallway). Noah Curtin of Mercyhurst Prep is a prime time performer ready to shine again on the state stage. He was the individual champion in A this past fall when he shocked the cross country world with a clutch victory over Forsythe (among others). He’s fresh off a big 4:21 personal best in the 1600 to defeat one of the deeper crews in AA out at D10. As mentioned, Hunter Crawley is the top returner from a year ago and is doing arguably the best running he’s ever done. He has a 1:57 split this year and dropped a 4:23 behind Lesser at districts.

This won’t be an easy preliminary round by any means, but here is who I have surviving:

Auto Quals

Tyler Lesser, Zach Skolnekovich, Joe Cullen, Phoenix Myers

Tristan Forsythe, Hunter Crawley, Noah Curtin, Morgan Morrison

At Large

Garrett Baublitz, Zach Mead, Logan Lukonic, Jarrett Boyd

This was a very tough choice as the District 10 and District 4 guys were sitting there with impressive personal bests to consider, but ultimately I decided on these 12. I think that the doubling won’t have a big effect on Cullen or Myers as I don’t expect their 4x8 prelims to be too taxing. The 1600 finals is another story.

One of the big wildcards here is freshman Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. The kid has had a terrific season, picking up some big wins and running with a lot of consistency. But this is a whole new stage for him and sometimes it swallows up even the most talented of youngsters. Similar story for District 4’s sophomore Ethan Knoebel of Southern Columbia who ran a blazing 4:25 at his district meet. Toughest omission for me in this round was definitely Connor Walsh. He is a fantastic cross guy, but I’m nervous about him in a more speed based mile so I opted for Boyd instead. Zimmerman of Mercyhurst Prep is also an interesting name as he was the first guy out of finals last year. Could provide some extra motivation.

Looking ahead to the finals, I think this race could be epic. With three of the top seeds (Skolnekovich, Myers and Cullen) predicted to be involved in gold medal battles earlier in the day, picking any of those guys for a podium finish is a risky proposition. As mentioned, the 3200-1600 double has been near impossible for the state’s elite and I haven’t seen a lot of guys pull it off (Sam Williams jumps to mind, I think he did the 32-4x8-16 triple which is absolute madness). Cullen I think is the only guy who I could realistically see competing for a title on the double. This would be especially true if Wyomissing falls behind Seneca early and Cullen won’t have a chance to chase them down on the anchor. I think they should be a clear #2 in that case so he could coast a bit.

Realistically, you can go around searching for the upset all you want, but it’s clear that Forsythe has put together the best top to bottom resume of the group. He’s also going to be one of the freshest in the field with some of the best experience. I don’t think you can go wrong picking him for the win.

8. Garrett Baublitz, Juniata 4:26.33

7. Zach Mead, Montrose 4:25.68

6. Zach Skolnekovich, Quaker Valley 4:23.66

5. Noah Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep 4:21.75

4. Hunter Crawley, South Williamsport 4:20.52

3. Joe Cullen, Wyomissing 4:18.55

2. Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston 4:17.13

1. Tyler Lesser, Milton Area 4:16.92

But you guys could probably tell I was itching for an upset by now, so I searched around and I found my guy. Tyler Lesser is my pick for the win in this one. I think he hasn’t truly been pushed to his limits in the 1600, but once he finds them against Forsythe in this race he will throw down a kick that brings him home to victory.

Noah Curtin could be my undoing in this race. I underestimated him before XC states and apparently never learned my lesson. He’s lurking in this field to do exactly what he did in the fall. It feels too storybook to actually happen though.

Lastly, I have no idea what to do with Skolnekovich. Mostly because I have no idea what his mindset will be going into this race. If he wins the 3200, he could either be feeling really confident or tired and satisfied with his one big time. On the flip side, if he loses the 32, he could either be really motivated or just burnt out and ready to give up. So I slotted him in the middle here. I’m guessing it’s something along the lines of what Griffin Molino did in 2015, but aired on the side of caution.