You can scratch so this more a qualifiers list than entry list.
AA D1 Performance List
AAA D1 Performance List
Some quick thoughts:
1) We've only got 20 guy entered in the 3200 before scratches. That's wild. Clearly the district one powers have wanted less guys in this event (it makes sense, can't have trials of the 3200), but they've dropped the times so much, we could have a very small field. Or at least a weird incentive structure.
The top few seeds are locks with Campbell, Kujdych, McMenamin, Lederer and Rollins all extremely likely to compete in the 3200. Scarpill is entered in three events so it's not obvious where he will go (I think he runs the 16 trials and then runs the 32 and 16 finals, if qualified). Haas is suddenly a very interesting pick as he is the #3 seed in the 1600 (we'll get to that). Conway will scratch unless disaster strikes him in two prelims. DT West has 4 guys on the list so one of them has to scratch (likely Barton). I think we could potentially get down to like 16 guys where the top 8 (assuming they run under 9:30 which I think is likely) make states. That would be 50% of the guys who start, can't get much better odds than that, right?
2) Josh Hoey will only run the 800, setting up a killer field. The field is loaded at the top and I'd bet most of these guys will show up and race it. The top 6 seeds seem pretty likely and I think I'd bet 7 goes in as well (Abrahams). There's almost 20 guys under the SQS before scratches and, although there could be some depending on 4x8 prelim results, I'd expect a pretty deep group in this final. I've been saying the 800 looks weaker from a state champ perspective, but after this performance list, I feel like this is the deepest event. Add in some high quality dudes from the other districts, and the prelims of this event are going to be unreal out at Shippensburg.
3) The 1600 is going to be odd. With Hoey pulling out, the event looks weird. Only two guys under 4:20 and one of them is coming off injury in Liam Galligan. Haas seemed like a 2 miler until he dropped an awesome race at leagues and now he's suddenly got great odds of being top 2 in the 16. Guys like Scarpill, Keller, Kujdych, Griffen, Eissler and more seemed like wiser choices for other events, but if you look at this field, maybe you give it a go and try to qualify for states in two events or have a little safety valve if possible.
A real wild card here would be Sam Early. Not sure what he's going to pick event wise and, considering CRN has 5 guys qualified in this event and can only run 3, his event could have domino effects for Ethan Koza and company. CRN is one of the tougher squads for me to guess at plan wise.
I'm thinking a sleeper emerges here and ends the weekend under 4:20 when I never would have guessed they would be. When was the last time districts only had 2 guys under 4:20 in the meet? What about the last time they only 4? Honest question, I have no idea (I'm guessing 2008 though if not more recently).
4) Yes this is going to be about the 4x8. Is Pennridge running this all out? They ran 7:54 at leagues, but Howell and Eissler would probably be better served focusing on individual events. But if htey don't, are they contenders? They are the 4 seed and we know this team comes on strong at the right moment.
The real drama will be sorting out the 12 final teams. Is Souderton going all out (McMenamin doesn't race the 32 until day 2)? Is William Tennent loading up (two state qualifier types in the 800)? What about Henderson or Lower Merion or even CB East maybe? And how good is Boyertown? I've got no feel for the back of this event, but admittedly the top 7 seem pretty likely to be the state qualifying crew (assuming that's what Pennridge wants to do).
I'm not at all surprised by Josh Hoey going 800 only. The Hoey's in the past have gone for one individual state title and then chip in for the 4x400. But I am surprised Jonah didn't go after the 1600 instead which at this point might be a better chance to make states. However, he's a freshman with a bright future at any distance so it doesn't really matter. Shanahan didn't even bother to qualify a 4x800, but the 4x800 is the premier event this year. I agree the 1600 looks weak on paper compared to prior years but there's a few sleepers in there. Hontz ran a great race last year at 4:19 and judging by his 800's he seems back to 100%. Galligan has a ton of potential so if he has enough training he's a big PR waiting to happen. Kujdych is listed for it and he reminds me of N. Henderson in that he's a 3200 guy with deceptive 1600 speed too, but his focus is surely 3200. There's a handful of 4:24ish types though, a couple will break through with a 4:18 or so, probably the CRN juniors.
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