So the
performance lists are out which means it’s time for me to start working on my
official state championship previews and predictions. But before we jump into
those, I figured I’d share my thoughts on some events I won’t be explicitly
touching on in my previews and some overarching concepts. Hopefully it whets
your appetite for what is to come the rest of the week.
The
first thing that has me excited is the AAA team title. Last year the title was
perhaps the biggest source of conversation for the outdoor season and the most
talked about “event” of the year. That usually is not the case and typically I
don’t even know who wins the thing. But now, I’m kinda into it and this year
could be a lot of fun because it seems like a lot of different teams can win.
Based
on the District One results, Pennridge, Bishop Shanahan, Coatesville and
Souderton all had horses and finished side by side in the final team standings.
Of that group, I’d probably say that Shanahan’s talents translate best because
they have the most super stars, but any of these teams could catch fire and
make a charge. You also have D7’s North Allegheny who could get 30 points from
on guy (Ayden Owens), but maybe not much more than that, and defending champ
State College.
But the
team that drives the most interest is Carlisle. The Herd was 2nd in
XC and 2nd in indoor track. They really want a win. However, they
have their back against the wall post districts and the squad had a big
decision to make. Although they won their district meet with 72 points to
Milton Hershey’s 45, Carlisle knew they would have a tough decision to make on
the distance side of things. They had some medal threats in a variety of
events, but doubling in relays would make guys tired and possibly cost them big
points down the line.
They
were, ironically, left with a somewhat similar decision to make as both DT West
and State College were last year. State College ended up running the 4x8 and
doubling guys back in the 16 (Milligan) and the 800 (Degleris and Feffer). All
three runners ended up scoring, with Milligan winning the 16 in an upset. They
also took gold in the 4x8 and a critical silver in the 4x4. DT West, on the
other hand, wasn’t built as well for the 4x8. They maybe could have won it, but
instead opted to focus on individuals. Henry Sappey and Josh Hoey did the 16
with teammate Ryan Barton while Jaxson Hoey tried his hand in the 800. If not
for a couple of miraculous finishes from Milligan and Wilson’s Joe Espinal,
that line up would have been enough to give West the title, but, as we by now
know too well, SC edged them out.
So
Carlisle had to decide if they felt strong about their 4x8 chances or if they
should focus on individuals. Because of the relative strength of their 4x8
competition, it appears Carlisle has instead decided to go after individuals.
Their big three runners will each have a chance to shine. Sam Affolder is in
the 32 and the 16, Isaac Kole is in the 16 and Jack Wisner is in the 8. I think
I like the decision, even if it means we are robbed of a Carlisle vs. CB West
match up (sorry Pennridge and State College) in the 4x8.
I’ll
talk more about each guys chances in the distance events when we get around to
it, but it will be fun to see if they can score the points needed to hang with
Shanahan in the final standings. I’m predicting Shanahan holds on and defends
their indoor title, but I think predicted DT West last year too.
On the
AA side, it’s not clear to me who exactly the favorite is (I’m just not
familiar enough with the sprints and jumps). Seneca looks like they have an
interesting line up to trot out there and Wyomissing looked terrific at their
district meet (scored 111 points). Hickory has some sprinters and throwers that
could put them over the edge. I think this one seems fairly wide open as well
(I think Hickory will win with Wyomissing perhaps making it interesting), which
should make for an exciting day of points watching.
In
other news, although we knew it might be coming, Brookville’s Ryan Thrush has
officially scratched the 800 and will focus on solely the 400. His team is also
the 10th seed in the 4x4, which makes them potential medal
contenders if he can lift them with a big leg. Although Thrush is the defending
champion at 400, he’s going to have his hands full with Kennedy Catholic’s
Channing Phillips. This kid is an absolute monster who just ran 21.3 to go with
48.6 at districts. It’s going to be a great match up of speed versus strength
in the quarter. The rounds may help Thrush as well. I’m leaning towards
Phillips as my pick here, but rooting for Thrush. Hopefully he takes another
shot at the 800 before he hangs up his high school spikes. If not, watch for
him to do big things in that event at the collegiate level. I think that’s
where his future is.
The AAA
400 should be really exciting as well. Miles Green has run 47 seconds in the
quarter, but he was beat out last week by Ade Jones-Roundtree. Isaac Elliot
from Ambridge is no joke of a 400 runner either and should be right there in
the mix. Then you have the D1 guys who had to run trials and finals last week
and likely lost a step because of it. Both Rashon Cooke and Mike Welde outdid
their current seed times in the prelims, so don’t underestimate either guy on
race day. I believe the 400 will be Welde’s only event. Lastly, Austin Padmore,
who has run some crazy fast anchor splits for MH’s 4x8, appears to be running this
with fresher legs after his 4x8 team scratched out of the prelims. In terms of
sleepers, don’t forget about Molek Walker of Grove City. He’s seeded at just
50.13, but has run in the 48s this year and gone up against both Channing
Phillips and Isaac Elliot this year and held his own.
The AAA
4x4 has 8 teams within a second of one another at the top of the seeding. 8
teams! That should create some madness in the heats. With 27 teams qualified, I
believe they will have 4 different qualifying heats. That means there will
likely be just one auto qualifier per heat and absolute madness trying to be
that one team. Of course that assumes they actually get to run the prelims this
time around …
I think DTW would have won last year had they gone for it in the 4x800. State College went all in for the team championship. SC top guys tripled in 4x800, either 800 or 1600 and 4x400.
ReplyDeleteThis year is really weird, it might only take low 30's in total points to win it all.
They'll only have 2 heats in the 4x8, with 12 to finals. They don't run lanes for the 800, waterfall start with allies. There were 15-16 per heat in the 8's last year, and I think 12 in the final may be too many as well, lot of bodies/traffic.
ReplyDeleteThey stuff way too many guys into the 4x8 and 800 trials. Bound to be a fall or dropped baton or something. But to clarify, my comment in the post regarding the 4 heats was about the 4x400 which will likely have a 4 heat prelim with an 8 team final. Haven't seen the heat sheets yet, but don't think you can fit it any other way.
DeleteStill have to say Carlisle is the favorite when you look at their potential to score big points in the 16, 32, TJ, and HJ.
ReplyDeleteSam has proven his strength in doubling and tripling all season so for him to win the 32 and then come back in win the 16 is well within reason. The 32 has the look of an all-time classic race with some of the guys entered in AAA. Henderson vs. Affolder is worth the price of admission (I'd pay even more if the Affolder was Noah).