XC Top 50 Rankings: #5-1

5. Spencer Smucker, Sr Henderson (1 AAA)

This should be an exciting senior season for Spencer Smucker. Out of everybody on this list, he’s the only guy with three XC state medals. And not only has Smucker medaled three times before his senior year, he’s been consistently improving each time. Nobody in the past 12 years or so has had 4 incrementally better finishes, all in the medals, during their 4 high school seasons. That being said, Smucker is still looking to crack the top 10 at states for the first time. All signs indicate that this could be the year.

Smucker is coming off his best and perhaps healthiest track season yet. He closed out his year by qualifying for the state finals in the 1600 (where he placed 11^th) and then running a brilliant 4:18 mile for the win at the PA Distance Festival. That built off an indoor season where Henderson ran 10:35 in the DMR to place 8^th in one of the deepest fields in state meet history.

Spencer was his usual solid self in XC this past season, but really turned things on down the stretch, helping Henderson once again qualify for states as a team with a 15:37 clocking at districts where he placed a career best 4^th place. Next year should also feature the most talented group of training partners Smucker has had since his freshman year as the WCH boys return 3 of their top 4 from a team that placed 8^th at states. So there’s a lot to like here for those in the Smucker fan club. Now the question becomes, can he put it all together and make a run at not just his first top 10 finish, but maybe even a state championship?

4. Tristan Forsythe, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

Since his sophomore season, Tristan Forsythe has been one of the best runners in the A classification. After being a part of a state championship team as a freshman, Forsythe earned his first individual state medal on the trails as a sophomore. Then he used a big kick to win the slower section of the mile indoors at states, grabbing his first track medal. Outdoors, he grabbed another medal. And by now you have probably caught onto the trend. Forsythe has grabbed an individual medal at each of the past six state championships. How many non-seniors have pulled that off?

Last year Forsythe was not just medaling in races, but competing for the victory. He was leading last year’s A state championship at two miles, but faded a bit down the stretch and was ultimately caught by Noah Curtin in a surprise upset. Indoors, Forsythe entered the state meet as a big underdog to Noah Affolder and facing stiff AAA competition, but he handled himself very well and took 3^rd overall, barely edged out by Liam Conway for the silver. Outdoors, even after battling injuries, Forsythe ran a 4:12 time in the mile to win his first individual gold. If it wasn’t for Conway’s big time kick to close out indoor states, Forsythe would be the #1 returner in his events for each of the upcoming seasons.

Despite Tristan’s success across the board, he will still need to prove he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the top AAA runners when it comes to XC. It’s always tough to compare guys when they don’t race head to head, but Forsythe’s time at Hershey this past fall would have been just 33^rd in merged results. In one of his few matchups against some of the big name D1 runners, Forsythe ran a very quick 15:40 at Paul Short to place 8^th, but was bested by Cupp and Conway by a couple seconds, two guys in the top 10 who are just behind him in the rankings.

That being said, Forsythe ran that race in enemy territory, going all the way to Lehigh to race on a fast course and pick up a big time. His races on Western Soil included a win at RWB, a silver at WPIALs and 7^th place finish at the Gallion meet in Ohio. Tristan also won the Foundation Invitational and finished 13^th in the NXN Regional. That was #2 for PA and ahead of top returners Ryan Campbell and Spencer Smucker.

I think Forsythe has the chance to be historic this year, maybe even winning a triple crown with the XC, indoor, outdoor golds. One key thing will be staying healthy as he has had some notable gaps in racing/training over the past couple years that could hamper his fitness.

3. Ryan Campbell, Sr Council Rock North (1 AAA)

Last year, CR North broke a long drought in the team state title column. With a dominant performance that included 4 top 26 finishers, North stormed away from a very strong Carlisle team en route to the title. Now Ryan Campbell will look to end another state title drought, this time for the individual state title. Although North has had plenty of good runners, including Footlocker Finalists like Chris Campbell and Ross Wilson, they have been denied the individual title since Danny Coval graduated.

Like most CRN athletes, Campbell’s training lined up perfectly for a state championship peak. Ryan was actually just the 3^rd best runner on his own team after the first invite of the season at PTXC where he ran just 17:05. But he quickly found his rhythm, taking over the top spot on the team at Briarwood (taking 7^th) and then posting 4 straight sub 16s before his 16:01 for 7^th at states. That race marked his first victory over Rusty Kujdych of the season.

On the track, Campbell continued to turn heads. He ran 9:31 indoors for the 2 mile and then 9:14 outdoors to grab another state medal. Although he never dropped a mind-blowing mile time, Campbell did lead his CRN DMR to a very fast 10:15 DMR time. He’s been in some high pressure situations and handled himself extremely well. Ryan will have a big advantage in the training partner department as he’s got two top 50 guys in his hometown. Nobody else in my top 10 even has a second guy that has made my list.

I’ve got Campbell positioned third out of my “big three” and I’m expecting him to hold that spot in the early weeks. Typically, the boys from CRN get off to a very slow early season start before turning it on and becoming world beaters in the post season. Once we get to October, it will be time to start taking a close look at whether Campbell is ready to be a state champion.

2. Noah Beveridge, Sr Butler (7 AAA)

Noah Beveridge has taken us on quite the rollercoaster over the past few seasons. He started the 2016 XC season with a 7^th place finish at the McDowell Invitational and then a 6^th place finish at the RWB Invite. He ended the season with a 5^th place finish at the state championships. How about that for a jump? By all accounts, Mark Provenzo seemed like the best guy in the WPIAL and Provenzo defeated Beveridge at WPIALs by 17 seconds. But Beveridge turned on the clutch gene at Hershey and stormed to a 15:59 and top returners honors.

When Beveridge first hit the indoor track, he looked great. He clocked an 8:56 in the 3k in January and seemed like a state title contender. But things cooled for him and he ended up a non factor in the state final. Coming into outdoors, it was unclear what Noah would have in the tank. But once again, the Butler Junior peaked at the perfect time. He dropped 4:19 and 1:57 open marks while drastically lowering his 3200 personal best. His 9:20.85 PR gave him his first WPIAL title. Then at states, he somehow found the gears again for a massive PR. Noah dropped all the way down to 9:07 for the 3200 taking 5^th in the state meet.

So we know that Beveridge is a clutch runner which makes him very dangerous at states. Even if he has an up and down regular season, it’s going to be hard to count him out in crunch time. Plus Noah has a squad on the rise with Butler, joined by fellow top 50 state finisher Brett Brady. You can’t undersell the value of having teammates alongside you.

Last stat – here’s how the top juniors at AAA states have finished as seniors over the past 11 seasons: 1^st, 1^st, 6^th, 1^st, 13^th, 13^th, 1^st, 5^th, 1^st, 2^nd. That’s an average of 4^th place, about 2.5 spots better than the #2 junior, and a median of 2^nd place. I don’t know if this means anything, but I already did the math so I figured I would just share.

1. Rusty Kujdych, Sr Neshaminy (1 AAA)

This was a tricky one to pick as all of these top guys are super talented, but ultimately I’m giving Kujdych the nod. Although Rusty finished 3^rd out of the big three at states this past fall, his marks outside of states were very impressive. After he started the season with a 3^rd place finish at Briarwood, Rusty ripped off a win at CR North, a 15:25 at Paul Short and a 15:19 at William Tennent. In two straight match-ups on the Lehigh course against rival Ryan Campbell, Rusty was able to defeat him with marks of 15:35 and 15:20. At states, Rusty ran a bit more aggressive early and faded somewhat down the stretch, but I like his aggressive attitude and trust that next year, when he’s not chasing someone like Noah Affolder, things could look a bit different.

On the track, Rusty was equally impressive. He pulled down another district title, this time in the 3200, and grabbed two more state medals by placing 2^nd indoors at 3k and 3^rd outdoors at 3200. He will be the top returner in both events. His 9:04 mark for 3200 meters puts him in the top 40 or so ever for PA HS.

I think this Neshaminy senior has all the pieces to bring home his first state title this fall. That being said, this is far from a lock and I think things could really rotate around a lot in the coming months. Let the debate begin.