NXN NE and other letters

Any information about participants in either regional meet is greatly appreciated by myself and likely other readers of this blog!

So I have decided I'm going to refuse to talk about indoor in any posts until after the cross country season is officially closed for PA (so hopefully not until after Foot Locker Nationals). 

So in the mean time, I will be trying to continue the XC Regional buzz during this down period in mid November.

The NXN meet has transformed over the past few years into a bona fide Footlocker Contender, now not just attracting top teams but also top individuals. In 2007 there were no non-team individual spots even available in qualifying, this was the last year the meet was called NTN.

I have gone on record already as saying I prefer NXN to Footlocker, especially if this next course keeps it's more interesting qualities but eliminates some of it's potential for absurd overly muddy conditions. I like some mud and some cross type conditions, but those 2012 results are verging on ridiculous. 

But really, all we should be concerned with right now is the regional qualifying meet at Bowdoin Park in Wappinger Falls. The problem with projecting this meet is the extra variables. At Footlocker it's a simple matter of be in the top 10, nothing else matters. However, for NXN it's not so black and white. Wade Endress got 9th in 2009 and didn't qualify, but Sami Aziz got 9th in 2012 and did. 

It is my understanding that the top 2 teams from each region automatically qualify for the national championships. However, there are also at large selections that I committee makes where additional teams from a region can be chosen. Once those teams have been decided, the top 5 individuals not on those teams qualify for nationals as well. It's the same concept as district qualifying here in PA.

Comparing results each year is also a tricky process. In 2007, because there were no individual spots available, lots of borderline cases had to choose Footlocker or risk completely missing out on a national meet. But in 2013 Griffin Molino, a member of a South Williamsport team that didn't even have 5 guys competing at their district meet, ran at NXN NE and qualified for nationals. 

So naturally, Brad Miles 7th place performance in 2007 is probably not equivalent to Kevin James's 7th place in 2013. But Max Kaulbach from GFS, who was 2nd at the first regional qualifying meet in 2007, had a fantastic performance that would likely still have qualified him for nationals in a more competitive meet. So how do we weight his performance?

As you probably know by now, I hate to use time as a means of comparison, but for the sake of reference 25th place in 2007 (PA's Zach Hoagland from North Penn) ran 17:02 while 26th place in 2013 (Henderson's Alex Knapp) ran 16:22.3.

With this in mind, let's take a look at the individual qualifiers for Nationals each year from the NX NE Regional.

2008 Brad Miles, North Penn

2009 None (Wade Endress tops at 9th)

2010 Wade Endress, Altoona

2011 None (Logan Steiner tops at 17th)

2012 Sami Aziz, GFS

2013 Griffin Molino, South Williamsport and Kevin James, O'Hara

Individually, there are only 5 spots and lots of states fighting for them. You take out a few states like NY (they have their own qualifier same day) and Virginia, but you still have New Jersey and New England producing fantastic competition. To send two individuals is very difficult.

This year, PA is potentially sending a lot of guys hunting for one of those 5 spots. Griffin Molino has said already he will be back to defend his spot from a year ago, fresh off his 2nd straight state title and near course record. Kevin James will also likely be back with O'Hara for the third straight year. I'm not currently seeing OH as a national qualifying threat (not unless the 4-5 really step it up) which may mean James is going to be in position to gobble another individual spot.

In a similar spot is Andrew Marston from Conestoga, who likely will be competing with his team. Although, I like this Stoga squad a lot, I'm not a believer that they will qualify for a nationals spot, especially if Murray and Cruickshank are out of the line up as they were at Henderson. So that puts Marston into the fray of individuals.

GFS has been to this meet 6 out of the 7 years it has existed, and I don't expect that to change. That means super soph Nick Dahl is another individual to watch. He looked good at Henderson, but this will be a different animal for him. He's a longshot, but GFS has a proven track record at this meet. If you count Kaulbach, they've had 2 individuals and 1 team at national qualifying level. 

Alex Knapp has run this course fantastically over the past two years and is a true wild card in this field. I don't expect him to crack the top 5, but he's a dangerous name. Henry Sappey could do damage as could Billy McDevitt if Malvern Prep (and DTW) decides to go. Lastly, Aaron Gebhart, who was 16th last year, is the biggest sleeper of the bunch. If he chooses to return to this meet, motivated from a disappointing state meet, he could really surprise. 

Team wise, the region has done a strong job at nationals in the past, meaning there is only potential for a few at larges to come from the northeast. Those have been critical for PA in qualifying not only teams, but individuals. Here is a list of some PA squads who have gotten to nationals:

2007- None (NP 4th and GFS 5th)

2008- NA 3rd, advances as at large (NP 6th)

2009- GFS 2nd (WCH 8th)

2010- None (Altoona 7th, WCH 14th)

2011- None (NA 6th, NP 21st)

2012- O'Hara 2nd, WCH 3rd, both advance 

2013- WCH 2nd (OH 4th)

So in total we have sent 5 teams in 7 years. Not too shabby. State champs have struggled a big at this meet. Only WCH the past two years has won states and qualified for nationals, and in 2012 they were not the top PA team, despite their qualifying spot.

Not many teams have consistently sent squads to this meet (which I have already said should change). One of the squads that has is GFS who pulled one of the biggest upsets in regional history when they qualified for nationals in 2009. Altoona send squads back to back years, allowing Wade the chance to make nats the second time around. Henderson has sent a team 4 of the last 5 years and after relatively disappointing go rounds the first two times, they have qualified for nationals the past two.

The most teams from PA to attend this meet in the same year was 6 back in 2009. 4 of the top 5 AAA teams appeared (minus NA) and so too did GFS and West Chester East. 

North Allgeheny, this year's state champs, has the best chance of any PA team I've seen of making it to nats. The problem is, it doesn't look like they are making the trip (Forrest has already gone on record saying O'Hara looks like the top dog, so I'm assuming he expects/knows NA will be home). I haven't ruled out their appearance yet (although someone can feel free to give me some info). 

I know they have not come either of the past two years despite having very strong teams nor did they come in 2010, the last time they were state champs. They may just want to retire as gold medalists. However, they did go to regionals in 2011, which I find somewhat odd, considering that team was probably one of their least likely to qualify in the past near decade. 

So what made the 2011 team worth to go? Well they were somewhat young, had a lot of strong forward momentum and they had a senior with a chance at nats (although a fairly outside one).

This team has a ton of momentum, and two very good seniors, one who should at least consider footlocker if he won't run at NXN with his teammates (Matt McGoey).

But the 2008 team, which had a few key seniors, was coming off a really heartbreaking loss at states and you could argue the 2011 NA team had similar feelings (although really the heartbreaking loss title belonged to O'Hara that year). That 2008 team was out to redeem themselves at regionals (and they did) while the 2011 team was likely out to do something similar (and they kinda did, top PA team and crushed the state champs in NP who were suffering from: we feel obligated to be here syndrome).

Meanwhile this 2014 NA team is like the 2010 NA team. After two tough years of misses, they came back and won gold with a squad of mainly seniors including one shining star. So even though NA is our best hope for a nats bid, it appears probable they will hang up their spikes.

GFS has shown potential for a great top 3, but is too unproven at 4-5 to be a legitimate contender. O'Hara and Conestoga have already been covered, both having opposite issues at 2-3 vs 4-5-6-7. We also may see DT West and WCH (although apparently no Smucker), Malvern Prep (although apparently no Hoeys) and maybe even York Suburban (Wilt came last year when he was still a Biglersville runner). I'd love to see York Suburan here just to see what they can do one more time and remind everyone how strong of a AA squad they are.

Really I also wish Grove City, Sewickely and Winchester Thurston would consider hopping in here, but this seems unlikely. We may see Mackey and Loevner though at one of the two meets. Same could be said for Benka and Budnik from GC who both had heartbreaking falls at states during their title pursuit.

Overall, it should be a really fun meet and regardless of the outcome, the extra month of training to put your reputations on the line and chase a dream and a greater goal speaks volumes about the character of the runners involved.

It's not an easy journey. It's cold and the weather, for lack of a better word, blows (I know my puns are fantastic). But ultimately, the ones who have the heart to persevere are champions.

Good luck PA.