AAA States Recap

The AAA race was set to be a battle between Colin Abert and the clock as he was ready to go on an assault on yet another record in his impressive career. The weather went from great, to ugly, to fantastic again in a brief span (despite the weather being horrible here in District One, PA for the Centennial championships) meaning the record chase was very, very real. North Allegheny was the favorite for the state title, but PCL squads O'Hara and LaSalle were seen by many as sleepers for a title run.

A mile into the race, things were looking wide open in the team race. Central Bucks West was leading the way at one mile with their young, inexperienced squad. Trevor Belding, the team's #6 at Districts, went through the mile quite quick and helped CB West get 5 in the top 30 through the mile. Behind West was Stoga, O'Hara, NA and then LaSalle. NA's 4-5 were somewhat buried in the field early which put them well back despite their solid top 3. The seniors of Twin Valley got out hard and their team was in 6th. CR North was surprisingly conservative through the mile, sitting in 15th place overall. Carlisle was even more so, only Zach Brehm was in the top 100 of team scoring (their 4-5 ended up getting out in the 200s, not sure where their box was or what exactly happened here).

Individually, Colin Abert got things going out hard from the start as he cruised through the mile in 4:42. But unlike Paul Short, he had company. Kevin James and Jake Brophy came right along with him. Comber, Marston, and Gebhart were in pursuit then a gap back to a group that included McGoey and Ryan James.

By two miles the quick start for CB West had subsided a bit and NA had regained the team lead. Conestoga had also passed West, giving them a 4 point edge for second. Downingtown West and Cumberland Valley did some solid second mile running and found themselves at 5th and 6th respectively. Conestoga was still sitting in second with state title hopes alive. Cruickshank was running big as one of the best 4th mans on the course. CB West still had 5 in the top 35 of team scoring and Brian Iatarola was leading the charge in a surprise role. However, the lack of a top 10 scorer was holding them back a bit. Henderson was looming in 9th, their top 3 running very well but Barchet had slipped out of the race meaning the pressure was on McSwain.

Individually, the race was fast because of this stretch. It is very difficult to get yourself under 2 miles in under 10 minutes, the hills are brutal and a fast first mile usually sucks the life out of the leaders. It was clear these guys were not going to mess around and Marston took over the lead at 2 miles with Brophy and James going with him. In total 9 guys were under 10 minutes! NA had two in that group with McGoey and Wharrey. Paul Power was one of the more patient of the bunch moving up after a 4:50 first mile. 6 guys were at 9:53 or better. Abert was mid pack, but he usually struggles on the second mile. After the top 9 there was a bit of a gap back to Ryan James who was in 10th. Jake Susualla and Zach Brehm were big movers on the 2nd mile and moved into 19th and 20th. NA had three guys in the medal positions at 2 miles.

On the stretch to the finish, the boys from NA held on to their lead and made a big statement with Stupak jumping up a bunch of spots the last mile to clinch things. It was a complete team effort as they almost fit their top 5 into the top 50 overall, a very impressive feat. NA averaged 16:21 on the course (2012 Henderson and O'Hara averaged 16:24 and 16:25). Stoga was 2nd thanks to a great #4 run from Cruickshank and a deep effort from their 5-7. All 7 of their guys were in the top 51 team scorers and Cooper, Iffert and Boccabella rotating spots the last mile or so helped get the competitive juices flowing. Not to mention the fact that every point was important and Stoga put 7 guys in front of O'Hara's 5. O'Hara ended up third despite 3 guys in the medals, the first time that I believe this has ever happened (unless you count North Hills in 2010 who had three medalists but didn't even qualify as a team). The spots between 40-70 in team scoring were very competitive this year, 6 seconds was worth roughly 15 team points in that zone (Stoga beat O'Hara by just 15 points).

DT West had a huge last mile and ended up finishing 4th overall. It was a fantastic run for what I called a young and inexperienced team. There is great potential for these guys in the future and they will return 6 of their top 7 and their top 4 guys for next year. 4 of their top 7 are also Sophomores. Sappey set the tone with a huge 16:07 run to finish in the medals and the rest followed. Ryan Barton really stepped up as a #2 which was a big missing link. Plus they had no clear weak link in the top 5.

Those were the clear cut top 4 teams and then 5-9 was separated by a total of 9 points. Easton ends up the victor with their strong front running as Abert and Lapsansky were fantastic low sticks. Grunwald had a big day to bounce back from districts and that got the job done. CB West faded a bit over the last mile. They are a young team as well and 6th is nothing to be ashamed of either. They are a very deep squad that will be interesting to watch dual with DT West going forward. Cumberland Valley got to 7th and the top D3 squad honors once again. They had a nice top 5, Wasko almost grabbed a medal.

WC Henderson ended up 8th with a fantastic run from Spencer Smucker! He medaled as just a freshman and was far and away the best frosh in the race. Freshman state medalists tend to have pretty impressive careers, this kid could be something special. Gordy had an off day, but Henderson managed to hold it together for a top 10 finish. I was impressed with Berkman today. He really held his own in a tough run. If Barchet finishes with Smucker and Swart that's something like a 76 point swing that gets them close Stoga for 2nd, probably about the same distance from them as they were at Districts. But that's just a part of states and an unfortunate part of lacking some of the depth of the other teams have. CRN comes within 2 points of vindicating Forrest completely, missing out on beating Henderson by a tiny bit.

Individually, the story will be about Jake Brophy. He ran a fantastic race in perfect conditions and threw down a highlight real last mile to crush the state record and run 15:24. The big moment for Brohpy this year was running that 15:08 at Leagues, that was the eye opener. Brophy's season reminds me a fair bit of Brad Miles title year. Miles was solid early, was good but not incredible at Briarwood and other early season meets then killed it at Leagues running low 15:20s (Brophy and Comber are probably the only times faster than that in the history of the leagues at Lehigh). Then the weather was rough at Districts, Miles cruised to another win in a slow time that was slower than leagues. Then he went to states, put on a kick the last stretch and won a state title in state record time. At the end of the month he continued his roll by winning the Regional championships and qualifying for Foot Locker.

Brophy's time shatters the record by 21 seconds. It was the perfect conditions for a title run and it was the biggest pack of guys running fast in state history. That opened the doors for someone to break out. Running a fast time is about opportunity meeting preparation. Ross Wilson ran 8:56 in the 3200m (an impressive PR) in part because he was a fantastic runner, but also in part because Russell and Deluca helped push the pace the whole way and keep it fast and even Colin Martin gave him a ton of push in the final laps. Luke Lefebure ran 1:51.0 in 2010 as a Junior (a time he didn't match until college) not just because he was super talented, but also because he was chasing guys like Tom Mallon around the track and Mallon was the best 800m man the state has ever seen (although Kyle Francis has now made it an argument). If you look at any world record performance, the guy in second place is usually pretty darn close to the old world record as well (this year 2nd and 3rd were both under the old mark).

Also keep in mind that Russell ran 15:45 in a Junior in slightly worse conditions (I was there in 2012 and it wasn't as perfect as it sounds like it was this year, although it was a very nice day.) Plus in 2012 things really slowed down from 1 to 2 miles. Russell went through in something like 10:07 as opposed to the 9:52 Brophy had this year. When Russell was a senior, if he wanted it I believe he could have set a lower mark, probably around 15:40 or faster. He went through two miles in 9:51 and had clearly broken away. He wasn't interesting in setting a record, he had just gone all out after sub 15, and he knew the goal was a big run at Nationals. He chilled his way to the win after a very hard effort in the hills.

But this isn't meant to take anything away from what Brophy did. Without a doubt his mark is the best this course has seen by far. He has now entered the rare club of District One and State Champ in the same season (the last three guys to do it have also won regionals). He beat Colin Abert, a feat not many thought was possible and beat Kevin James and Andrew Marston handily with a fantastic kick. He likely could have run under 9:10 in the 3200m last year, but instead was running 1:55 to help his 4x8. Think about it, 1:55 for a 3200m guy as just a sophomore is incredible. Combine that with the 15:08 and maybe we should have known this was in play.

Overall, fantastic run by Brophy. His name has to be included in the All-Time PA elite now. Especially if he can do big things at a regional or national meet this year. And he's only just a Junior.

Kevin James has another fantastic run, kills it, and still can't get the W. He has had some of the most impressive non gold medal winning performances we have seen. And that includes team performances on 4x8s, XC teams, Penn Relays etc. He will have a tough battle against Brophy and/or Brehm in the 3200m or 1600m this year and that doesn't even include the potential breakout of guys like Comber, Marston or Abert. Or some guy we don't even know is ready to break out yet. KJ will almost definitely go after an NXN bid again and I hope he makes it back to Nats.

Marston has really had a fantastic year. He ran into two all time greats this year and he beat one of PA's other all timers. He will likely also head to NXN and have a very shot at Nationals. Keep in mind, however, that there are only 5 individual spots on the line for those who don't qualify as a team (I don't know the region very well, but I imagine Stoga will have their hands full trying to get through as a team) so if we are talking Molino, James and Marston at least being there, it's going to be very tight for a spot.

McGoey had easily his best race of his career with a fantastic 4th place finish, Major props to Hunter Wharrey behind him. This NA team has to go to NXN regionals, it would be a shame for PA's clear best team to not make an appearance. Seel was 26th, one spot away from a medal.

Abert had a tough day. There was a lot of pressure on him and he didn't end up getting the win. He will be incredibly motivated for Footlocker Regionals and that's scary for everybody else. I think he could end up in the top 5 at regionals and making it to nats if things break right. I still believe he is PA's best hope for a national qualifier, even considering Brophy's huge day.

Brehm very quietly made up a lot of ground the last mile. I'm curious what happened to Carlisle at the start because their guys ended up buried and that ended up being too much to overcome. I don't know if Brehm will go to a regional meet, but he should consider it. I know he is more of a track guy, but if he isn't going to give indoor titles a serious run this year, it might be worth taking a shot, putting yourself out there and trying to grab a spot to Nats. It would be a cool experience.

Spencer Smucker joins Vince McNally and Craig Miller as freshman medalists in my recent memory. Those guys both went on to be quite good (Foot Locker Finalists, Craig Miller had 3 state titles and McNally finished with 4 medals and a PR of 15:02). Smucker is in that Henderson system and is better as a frosh than any of their recent guys were. That's pretty scary considering their recent guys.

Lots of really nice medalist stories here as well. Sean Weidner, who struggled at Hershey for most of his career, puts together a huge state race for a medal. Mike Kolor puts together a beautiful stretch run to grab a medal after a top 5 finish at districts. Drew Wilkinson gives Red Land two medals and shows his sleeper potential was very real. Elias Graca had a really nice meet after struggling after RWB. He finished just outside the medals and ran really well at states, especially for an 800m guy. Ben Wilson from Central Dauphin had a relatively under the radar season and then turned things around at the perfect time to grab 29th at states.

A couple final things I can't help but notice. I mentioned before the meet that there was potential for a district 11 AAA champ and potential for a District 12 team title and potential for no D1 teams to be in the top 2 at states. These are all very rare if not unheard of, but they were very possible this weekend. Instead, that doesn't happen. A district one guy wins the title (again) and North Allegheny is the only team that can beat the top D1 team at states (again). So maybe should just stop betting against history?

And lastly, the District 3 curse continues to take victims. It was a tough day for Gebhart and the Hempfield boys. No D3 guys better than 9th, no D3 teams better than 6th and the champs for districts really struggling at states consistently at the AAA level. District 3 did get an unprecedented 6 state medals (great year for D3 this year), but I still can't help but feel like they are getting jipped here.

Lastly, with states being done, I will be looking to do some state stories in addition to my planning of the meet of champions. I will not be reaching out to people for stories as I have in the past, but I encourage people to reach out to me if they are a medalist at any division or a member of a top 10 team at the state meet.

I'd love to interview the state champs on a podcast to hear about how they ended their season on a successful note for both teams and individuals. I also will be writing some state stories about whatever topics interest me if all goes well.

And one more thing, don't forget about the Henderson 2 mile coming up! A great opportunity to run a meet in between regionals and states and see if doing regionals is for you without committing an entire month to it. At some point this week I will be making a post about teams and guys that I believe should definitely consider going to regionals, however I think anyone who is a fan of the sport and a top tier guy in the state should give regionals a shot. Especially if you are a young guy on the rise.