NXN NE Preview

So after a long time of waiting, I finally managed to find a start list for the NXN Northeast Regional meet. I have to say that PA really turned out in full force for both nationals meets this year. I’m really excited about that and I think that is an excellent sign for the future. Not only are we sending the highest percentage of stars that I can remember in quite some time, we are also sending a boat load of talented, under the radar contenders who should really enjoy competing at this level. Although it probably has nothing to do with me, I have definitely been pushing the regional meets this year so I am thrilled to see this many people scheduled to be involved.

 

But enough of that, let’s get to the race.

 

The top two teams get an Auto Bid to Nats and the top five individuals not on those teams will join them. There is a chance we get a third team to Nationals, but I would wager that if a PA squad advances, it will be because they finish in the top two. Since this meet was first created in 2007, we have had only 27 top 20 finishes (Footlocker we have had a decent chunk more), so if I say someone has top 20 potential, that’s a big deal. 

 

As far as I can tell, here are the teams involved from PA. I’ll talk briefly about each squad and also give you the club name they will be running under so that you can recognize them in the results. If I missed someone please let me know.

 

Black Friars XC (AKA Malvern Prep)

This team competed here a year ago and had a strong showing, placing 5th overall. However, they will be without Jaxson and Josh Hoey this year at Regionals which puts a real dent into their national potential. Billy McDevitt, Ryan Doane and Colin Wills, the remaining members of the top five, will all be competing and I believe they should have a strong showing. McDevitt is the big name, after a killer cross country season with a slew of top 5-10 type performances. If things break right he could really surprise and he is certainly in that top 20 conversation.

 

Cardinal O’Hara XC Club (AKA Cardinal O’Hara)

After a disappointing state meet where they ended up off the medal stand as a team, O’Hara takes the trip to regionals for the third straight year. They have had some of their best races at this meet in the past including a national qualifying performance in 2012 and an impressive 4th place finish at this meet a year ago. Kev James qualified as an individual a year ago and returns looking to repeat that achievement. O’Hara was just 10 points from third place a year ago behind a killer top three and four of their top five from states ran this meet a year ago. Ryan James struggled here a year ago as just a freshman, but this season he has been running on an entirely different level. His brother finished 16th as a sophomore and Ryan actually placed better than Kev did at states as a sophomore. Add in the fact that Rob Morro had a killer race last year at Regionals and has only improved since then and this top three could potentially be better than a year ago. The question will be the 4-5 position, where the team has had it’s ups and downs this year. If two of the group of four of Donovan, Pastore, Nolen and Patrick James can step up and have a good day, good things could happen. Again, this is a front heavy meet talent wise so having that impressive top three should make a big difference in the final standings.

 

Eagle Running (AKA Bishop Shanahan)

Bishop Shanahan had the bad luck of being in District 1 A this past year and having to battle two top notch programs in Pottsgrove and Holy Ghost Prep, ultimately leaving their team out of the state championships in Hershey. This is a young team on the rise who impressed at Chesmonts behind their leaders Breslin, Kolimago, Kelly and Fromhartz. Although they are not in the national conversation, this may be a good preview of a AA state title contender in 2015.

 

Germantown Friends (AKA Germantown Friends)

GFS had a strong showing at the Henderson tune up meet behind a near victory from sophomore Nick Dahl and a breakthrough race from Grayson Hepp. I also think Newman is going to impress in his return the trails, he is a strong XC guy and proved it at races like Independent States and Paul Short. That top three makes this team interesting, especially with Dahl in the national conversation as an individual. At 4-5, runners like Goldstein and Schwartz have shown some potential in the early season, but have been off my radar in recent weeks. The good news for GFS fans is that this team has produced here in the past. In 2009 they pulled off a surprise trip to Nationals and in 2012 they got an individual to Nats in Sami Aziz. In 2007 Max Kaulbach was second at this meet and his team was in the nationals hunt as well, but just missed out. Nick Dahl is arguably their biggest talent since Kaulbach and may be better than Aziz was two years ago (he ran faster at the Henderson 3200m, but Aziz was more of a true XC guy). He’s only a sophomore (highest sophomore finish is 7th in 2007 then 12th in 2013), but he has serious potential.

 

Irish Road Track Club (AKA Conestoga)

The state runner ups and District One Champions have somehow flown under the radar all season. This team rarely gets buzz and their front runner, Andrew Marston, has quietly had one of the best seasons in recent memory. He nearly set a course record at McQuaid and, ran faster than anyone has run at the Hershey meet besides the two guys that were ahead of him. He ran 15:18 in less than ideal conditions at Lehigh (only 18 better performances dating back to 2006) and has proven he is better on the hills than the flats. Marston is without a doubt a contender for a spot to Nationals. The problem is there are only five spots and lots of good PA individuals, not to mention to the New Jersey and New England schools so he will be in for a dog fight.

 

As for Conestoga as a team, they were an intriguing story at states. They beat out a team that had three state medalists despite putting just one guy in the top 50 at states (Marston). Keep in mind no team has placed in the top 2 with just one top 50 finisher in at least the last decade, and likely longer. Nelson and Murray were in position to be medal threats, but couldn’t quite hold on at states. I think those guys will have better days at Regionals and really impress. However, it looks like Nick Cruickshank (who’s impressive run at states is the main reason they were second) will be out of the line-up for the regional meet (maybe a wrestler or swimmer?) and that’s a big loss. The good news is Iffert, Boccabella and Cooper have competed hard with one another on a weekly basis and that intersquad competition should help them fill the gap left by Nick Cruick. This team was secretly the deepest in the state through seven guys this past season and Theo Roberts is a solid new addition to the varsity squad.

 

Trail Blazers (AKA New Hope Solisbury and Delaware County Christian?)

Not exactly sure on the story here, but I believe that this is a combination of two District One A schools. I’m assuming that because they are likely both private schools and in the same township/zone they can compete as one club squad, but I’d have to look closer at the rules. In any case, this squad is signed up and they feature Greg House, the District One A champ, and Neumann and the Cammarrata’s who were his teammates on the District One Championship squad. Throw in Alexander Harvey and Michael Logie from the runner ups in Delaware County Christian and you have yourself an interesting team.

 

Warrior Track Club (AKA West Chester Henderson)

Henderson is another team with a killer top three: Gordy Barchet, Will Swart and Alex Knapp. These three senior leaders almost helped their team repeat as district champions at Lehigh this year. However, a key piece to that near title defense was freshman Spencer Smucker who will not be running alongside his teammates at Wappinger Falls (he’s entered in the open race, but I’m assuming he has hung up his spikes to start wrestling and will be MIA). The good news is the team has experienced bad luck like this before at states and they will finished as a top 10 team. Individually, Alex Knapp is my king sleeper for this meet. I’ve seen him carry this team in the late season in the past, including a huge run here as a sophomore that helped get his team a wild card bid to Oregon. The individual race here is absolutely stacked, but Knapp has a real chance to have a big time race, chase the top 20 and maybe sneak out one more cross country race. Behind him, this will an interesting opportunity to see what pieces Henderson has to build with for their future. They loaded up the JV race in addition to this varsity race and it looks like Andrew Weller will be upgraded to Varsity in Smucker’s place.

 

Wexford Flats (AKA North Allegheny)

North Allegheny finally returns to the Regional meet for the first time since 2011. Their two appearances here, 2008 and 2011, were both successes. They finished as the top PA team and beat the reigning state champions (North Penn both times ironically). This time around, however, they are the state champions and they are not coming off a disappointing states performance, but an impressive and thrilling one. The Seniors, particularly McGoey and Seel, spent a long four years chasing that elusive state gold and after some ups and downs they finally got it this past year. Do they have the hunger and fire to get a nationals bid?

 

The good news is, this may be the best NA team we have seen, even better than the 2008 team that surprised their way into the field at Oregon and then finished an impressive 12th at the meet (the same finish Henderson had a year ago). They are also better built for success at championship meets than they were in 2008. In 2008 they had a killer pack, but were led by sophomore Ryan Gil, who was not a game changing front runner (yet). In 2013, they will have a very capable 4-5 (Dieble and Stupak placed better than Balaban and Appman did at states in 2008), but they also have a fantastic top three that finished 4th, 8th and 26th at states. It’s one of the best 1-2 punches in state history with two guys sub 15:55. North Allegheny also had the best team average on the current state course, a faster average than the Henderson and O’Hara teams that made it Nats. Miggliozzi and Robinson had a nice depth at the 6-7 spot to give this team protection against an off day. McGoey is another name that needs to be mentioned in the individual qualifying conversation after his killer state race where he edged out Colin Abert on his way to the line and took 4th.

 

I’m a huge fan of this North Allegheny team as constructed, I respect their program and their previous success and I think they have all the pieces to make it to Nationals. But anything can happen at regionals and it will take a great day from all of their guys to get there. They are PA’s best shot, but will they have the passion and hunger after the long month of training after the high of winning a state title? That will be the deciding factor.

 

Whippets Footracing (AKA Downingtown West)

The young guns from DT West will look to prove themselves one more time at the regional meet after a thrilling run at Hershey, where they finished 4th. Besides Districts, this team has been very impressive and on the hillier, true XC courses, they have delivered. Henry Sappey has been a monster this year and is another top notch individual for PA in this absolutely loaded field. Although Sappey has been the big name, I believe the key to a successful race for the Whippets will be Ryan Barton. When he is mixing it up with the top of the field like he did at Chesmonts and States, this team has had success. His 36th place finish set the tone for the pack behind him and the boys delivered. He sets the tone again and his fellow sophomores will look to continue their success after a very long season. Farrell will be in the lineup instead of Blair, but it is an otherwise unchanged varsity from states.

 

Wolves Running Company (AKA St. Joseph’s)

The A District 6 Team will look to make an impact on this meet behind state medalist Brian Hackman and top individual Eli Urban. This is a small team trying to mix it up on the big stage, so they are a real wild card. Hackman has had a phenomenal season thus far and I’ll be interested to see how he runs in this loaded field.

 

In the open race we will see a lot of JV squads for the top teams but we also will see Club 24 Cross Country (AKA Puxsatawney) led by Bo Dinger and Eric Ingros and the Road Runners (looks like Owen J Roberts?) led by freshman sensation Liam Conway.

 

Teams that appear to be not be signed up that I will miss seeing:

York Suburban- There were rumblings after Carlisle that this was the best team in the state, but I guess we will never know exactly how they stack up with the top 4 AAA squads

Grove City- Very good team this year that had very bad luck at states, if things broke differently they could have ended the year as state champs. Thought they would enjoy a shot at redemption at this meet.

Winchester Thurston- The A champs had a fantastic stretch run to the season. I was quite curious how they would handle the bigger schools, but unfortunately, they are MIA.

LaSalle- This team beat O’Hara and Conestoga in the weeks leading up to the state meet. Maybe they lacked the front runner needed to be successful, but I think they were a better team than the one we saw at states. This would have been a nice chance to prove it.

CB West- Young team that ran fearless at states and nearly found themselves in the top 2-3 teams. They could be state title contenders next year and maybe even regional contenders so I would have liked to see them get extra experience.

 

I understand why these guys chose not to train the extra month and get a jump on the next cycle of the year, just sharing with you some thoughts.

 

Individually, we will see a few unattached runners competing for a top spot and maybe a trip to nationals. Here are some PA names:

 

Ethan Linderman, Will Hilegas, Liam Raehsler (also signed up for FL so we will see what he chooses), Garrett Butters, Aaron Gebhart, Hunter Crawley, Sam Webb

 

Again sorry if I missed someone, comment it below!

 

I will say this I checked the list not once, but twice and I didn’t find Griffin Molino on there with his teammate and new A medalist Hunter Crawley. May have just missed him, but he may have also pulled out of the meet. Hopefully he is healthy and will be ok for track if an injury has come up.

 

I’m pleasantly surprised to see Sam Webb make the switch from Footlocker over to NXN this year and I’m glad he will be extending his season. I think Footlocker would have probably been an easier road after seeing how loaded this group is, but Sam Webb is a really talented runner who came a few strides away from ending up 4th at states rather than 7th. The cut off guy for Nationals will probably be somewhere around Marston/McGoey/Dahl if I had to take a random guess and on the right day Webb can run with those guys and maybe beat them. He’s in the nationals conversation without a doubt.

 

Ethan Linderman and Aaron Gebhart will both look to bounce back from somewhat disappointing state races after fantastic district ones. Gebhart was the D3 champ and got out hard at states before fading on the hills. He had a fantastic race at this meet last year (16th overall) and is likely very motivated after Hershey. There is very serious sleeper potential here for a nationals bid, he’s sort of 2009 Jacob Kildoo like (Kildoo was 12th at FL Regionals that year after finishing in the 40s at states).

 

Unlike Gebhart, who I expected to see on the start lists, I’m pleasantly surprised to see Linderman on board. He had a fantastic season and was a big part of why Canon Mac was one of the biggest surprises of district week. He struggled a bit at states, finishing just outside the medals, but has the talent and motivation to really impress in what will likely be his final XC race of his high school career.

 

In all likelihood this will be the last weekend of racing for a ton of PA’s best runners and a variety of hard working seniors. Congratulations to the class of 2015 on a great year and let’s bring home a few more pieces of hardware before it’s all said and done.

 

To everyone competing at NXN NE and FL NE, I wish you good luck and remember … therealtrain.

I meant PA Don’t Play!

 

My bad.