Footlocker Preview Part 2

I’m quite excited to see the list of entrants we currently have signed up for the Footlocker Northeast Regional. I’m confident that we are sending at least 10 days guys to the meet with a legitimate chance to place in the top 20 and help PA compete for the regional title as a state and that makes me proud. I also think that between the preliminary entries for Footlocker and the projected entries for NXN (I haven’t seen an official list, but I’m sure it’s probably out there somewhere by now) we are sending almost everybody in my top 25-30 guys to one of the meets.

 

A few exceptions at this moment appear to be Sam Webb (a little surprised), Zach Brehm (not surprised, the kid is a track runner at heart), and Nate Henderson (only a sophomore). There are some other names I would have liked to have seen (Milligan, Simon Smith, Loevner, Allgayer, etc.) and they may end up in the NXN field, but some guys are just tired and need to hang it up. If you have info on these guys regional plans that I missed when scanning entries, let me know. I look forward to seeing them showcase their talents on the track.

 

One of the cool things that jumped out at me right away when looking at the Footlocker entrants as how many sets of teammates will be making the trip to Van Cortlandt. Hatboro Horsham and Hempfield are basically sending full squads to the meet which is great to see. In fact, Hempfield is sending so many of their key varsity guys from their district champs squad I’m a little surprised they didn’t pack up and head to NXN. However, Footlocker offers the opportunity for individual class races in addition to a champions race which may better suit some of their young guys which I’m assuming is why they ended up here.

 

District 11 is sending an army of guys including a bunch from Easton and Parkland. Cumberland Valley is bringing a big three with Wasko, Soliman and Higgins all on board for the long haul. Mechanicsburg is bring a slew of guys including a couple young guns worth paying attention to. Morgan Cupp, one of the top freshman in the state, and Alex Tomasko, an underrated sophomore who was one of the unfortunate just misses out of District 3, will both be participating at this meet. It’s unclear whether they will choose the championship race or the freshman and sophomore race respectively, but if they choose the class races they will be legitimate contenders for gold.

 

I’m a big fan of the Senior-Junior pairings that are scheduled to attend the meet. In some cases, the Senior has only a small shot at making nationals, but the Junior has big potential and so the Senior is willing to sacrifice and go the distance to help out. Big shout out to Drew Wilkinson, Connor Sands and Kyle Shinn. There is also the pair of Colin Abert and Kevin Lapsansky, with Abert trying to show his younger teammates the ropes a bit as he chases his Footlocker dream.

 

So now let’s get down to business. The top 7 PA guys are counted in the team scoring and, considering the year we have had, I’d love to see PA grab a regional championship. We are really deep this year and our top guns are quite good. As usual, I’ve done some number crunching that I think is worth sharing.

 

First off, Seniors dominate the Footlocker meets. PA’s top guy at Regionals has been a Senior each of the last eight years. Here is the break down by class of PA’s top 7 guys at the past 8 Footlocker Regional meets: 39 Seniors-15 Juniors-2 Sophomores. In other words, about a 70%-30% split between Upper Classmen and Underclassmen. If you look at the top 5 finishers from PA the numbers are even more Senior heavy: 31 seniors-9 Juniors-0 Sophomores. That’s basically 4 out of 5 on average.

 

That could prove to be a telling state considering the quality of PA underclassmen at this meet. Jake Brophy and Dominic Hockenbury are Juniors who each have a state championship and realistic Footlocker dreams. They are joined by Zach Seiger and Jack DiCintio as well as super soph Griffin Mackey, who nearly broke 16 at states, all of whom are poised to compete for a spot on PA’s varsity.

 

The top 7 PA guys have been mainly AAA runners with almost 75% of the group over the last eight seasons fitting this description. The rest is split fairly evenly between AA/A and Independent league guys. In recent years there has been a sizeable upswing in AA/A success that DiCintio, Sebastian Curtin, Mackey and others are hoping to continue.

 

But really as much as many will be interested to see how the sleepers do and how PA stacks up against its rival states, the real intrigue lies in the race for the top 10 spots and a place on the starting line in California. I won’t pretend that I know as much about the running going on outside PA borders (but I know Brannigan, Ostberg and Rutto will be really tough to beat), so I prefer to look at the crop of PA talent and think: are these guys nationals material?

 

An interesting fact that I have noticed is that there is almost a direct relationship between underclassmen in PA’s top 7 at regionals and the number of National qualifiers the following season. In other words, because we had three underclassmen in last year’s regional varsity (Abert, Hockenbury, and Marston) we should expect three national qualifiers this year. Important to realize, however, is that only 36% of underclassmen who finished in PA’s top 7 make nationals the next year. Since Marston is at NXN, at least one guy will fit that description again this season and the numbers say either Hockenbury or Abert won’t make it FL Nationals either. Also, with Hockenbury and Brophy both setting their sights on Nationals, this could mark the first time PA has sent to Juniors to Footlocker Nats in the same season in at least 9 seasons (and possibly the first time ever, I’d have to check the Spooner-Miller-Gottesfield zone).

 

Between both FL and NXN, 53.6% of the top 4 runners at the AAA state championships have qualified for one of the national championships at the end of November over the last 8 seasons. In four of the last five years, PA has sent at least 3 of it’s top 4 to a National championship including 4 out of 4 in 2012. This year’s top 4 was Jake Brophy, Kevin James, Andrew Marston and Matt McGoey. History says pick your favorite three from that bunch and they scheduling a plane trip out West.

 

Forrest made an excellent post on some names to watch from around the region and padontplay is probably the place to go to get information on these names. He currently has 4 PA guys slotted for Nationals (Abert, Brophy, Ritz, Comber). When you factor in the natural potential to overvalue PA guys, I’m thinking that I put the over-under at 3 qualifiers.

 

The 2014 season has reminded me a decent amount of the 2007 season. Jake Brophy is kind of like the Mark Dennin type. Dennin won the state champion in dominating fashion, destroying runners over the final mile. He also came in as an underdog behind two other guys (Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally). Dennin’s margin of victory was a mammoth 23 seconds. Brophy’s time beat the old course record by 23 seconds and his 16 second margin of victory was the largest AAA margin since Dennin.

 

McNally was probably the pick by most to get the W. He had gone toe to toe with PA legend Craig Miller and dropped a blazing 15:02. Abert is somewhat like the McNally of this season. Both guys were top in their class from basically their freshman year on. Both guys were 13th as Juniors at Footlocker. Both guys had uncharacteristic days at the state championships as Seniors.

 

Then you have Chris Aldrich, most equivalent to this year’s Kevin James. I’ve been doing a lot of Kev James to Ryan Gil comparisons recently, but maybe I should have been equating him to Aldrich. Aldrich was 20th, 4th and 2nd at his final three state championships (James was 22nd, 4th and 2nd) and was on some very good Henderson teams. His Henderson DMR won a National title when he was a Junior, but ended up losing to Coatesville, a team that they couldn’t quite sneak past and grab the XC state title from in 2006. Henderson was a historic squad with 3 medalists, but got overshadowed by one of the state’s all time best teams. Sound familiar? Aldrich also never got that individual state title or XC team title despite a ton of impressive times from his sophomore year on. It works a little bit right?

 

Interesting side note: McNally went to Penn State (where Abert is likely to end up) and Aldrich went to UVA to wear dark blue and orange (the colors of Syracuse where KJ has committed). You can’t make this stuff up.

 

The last guy is Max Kaulbach. He was a super talented runner who was often overshadowed because he was in the independent league other than the PIAA AAA title conversation. That’s Griffin Molino, the two time AA state champ.

 

So where am I going with this? Well Dennin ended up coming to regionals and continuing his dominance, making it to Footlockers after finishing 2nd at Regionals behind course record holder Don Cabral. Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally also qualified for Nats at the Footlocker meet, finishing 5th and 7th. Max Kaulbach would have qualified for NXN as an individual (he finished 2nd at regionals), but non-team qualifiers didn’t exist yet in 2007. So in other words all four guys either made nationals or would have made nationals. This year I’m thinking Brophy, Abert, James and Molino also all make it to Nats.

 

There is a chance for a letdown from Brophy, just because he had such a fantastic finish to his season it’s hard to stay hungry. I’m not he had any intention of doing Footlocker until Leagues/Districts time, but I may be wrong. He also is just a Junior in his first regional meet. However, I’m not making the same mistake twice. Brophy is super talented and was on an entirely other level from the rest of PA’s elite by season’s end. I’m leaning towards top 3 in the region for him with a chance at the W. I know Ostberg is really, really good (and he broke 12 at Manhattan, where this meet is contested), but I’m on the Jake Brophy bandwagon. I’m thinking he finishes 2nd behind a near record breaking performance by Cabral… I mean Ostberg.

 

(Am I getting carried away with the metaphor? Nah, I don’t think so)

 

I think Abert has the next best odds of qualifying. In fact, I’d probably be more surprised if Abert missed than if Brophy missed. Brophy’s potential is way higher, but Abert has the experience, redemption and talent combination to make this happen. I’d bet Footlocker has been a big goal for him all year long, and that can pay dividends.

 

After these two, I think we will sneak in one more PA guy at around 10th. Realistically I think only Ritz, Comber and Hockenbury have a shot. I really love some of the sleepers out there (Curtin, Green, DiCintio, Power, list goes on ….  Most of these guys are featured in my post below this) but if I’m being realistic I’ll be stunned if any of those guys make it.

 

Ritz and Comber were the two that Forrest picked to get in. Those are the smart, logical picks. Comber has been consistently solid all year. He was 6th at states, gave Brophy a real run at leagues (faster time than Campbell, Magaha, Tarsnane, Ross Wilson) and his consistent success makes you think he could just get in this race, stick his nose in it and steal a spot to Cali. However, I’m picking against him. I love what he has done this year (almost snagged him in Fantasy which would have made me team even better), but I don’t think he will get there. Around 12th seems reasonable.

 

Ritz has a ton of talent. He ran that 9:10 on the track, he beat Marston at Manhattan (you know, the course where this race is) and dominated the independent league. He has the track speed to close in a kickers fight for the final spot to Nationals. He has improved his consistency a lot this season to go along with his talent and he has been steadily improving all year long. But somehow I find myself picking against him too. I will say this, he has a sizable advantage on most PIAA guys because he did not have to peak in early November and now try and re-peak at the end of November. If we send 4, I think he’s a likely 4th, but he’s not my pick for third.

 

I see Dom Hockenbury pulling through for this one. Yes, I just said Juniors have struggled here, but the times are changing and sometimes you need to throw numbers out the window (goodness gracious, never thought I’d type that sentence). Face it, Juniors have won three out of the last four AAA state championships. Juniors have set the course record twice now at Hershey. Juniors have won 3 AA/A state championships in the past 4 years. A Henderson team of nearly all Juniors beat a team that finished 5th at Nationals at states. Juniors can do it people! Let the youth movement begin!

 

I’m a huge Hock fan. Besides a loss to Abert in peak Abert mode way back in the blazing heat of September, Hockenbury has calmly destroyed everyone he raced. No offense to everyone else, but the kid has been untested all year. We have no clue what his true potential is. Some may say this will come back to haunt him: he has not been challenged enough this year to face the struggle that is Footlocker Regionals. Heck, some years I’m the guy saying that. It’s an interesting point, but I’m not buying it here.

 

Dom’s goal all season has been this meet. Yeah, he wanted to win states, but that wasn’t too much of an issue. Every time I see him interviewed, he’s excited about Regionals, he loves the Van Cortlandt course, he knows he runs it well and he is focused on training for that meet above all else. That focus makes me a believer. Pencil it in: etrain is picking Dom Hockenbury and his gloves to qualify for nationals. S