How much can we read into a 3200m track race during cross country season? Not that much honestly, but I will say that momentum is real and there are signs and hints of potential future predictions.
First off you have to give credit where credit is due. Sam Ritz and Nick Dahl both ran all time bests for 3200m in probably the fastest 32s in November in state history. Seriously, these marks are faster than Aziz and Russell two years ago and they beat a 9:03/4:12 guy in the process. Dahl is just a sophomore and clearly balls harder on tracks than the trails. He could be an absolute animal this indoors, maybe a sleeper for an indoor 3k title? You never know, GFS can coach em up.
But Ritz makes a big statement. He's at least in the conversation for top 3 XC guys in the state and has flown completely under the radar this year. However, I'm not going completely gaga over this. Keep in mind that he is a track stud with fantastic speed who received perfect pacing for him to have success. Secondly, take note of the guys who had big days:
Ritz, Dahl, McDevitt, Hepp (huge day, really impressed by him). Those are all guys who didn't race piaa states. They are rested, hungry to prove themselves and are still waiting for their peak. These schools can peak at nationals time, the PIAA schools can't or they risk getting the label of choker at states and miss out on a state title that they may never get a shot at again. Completely agree with Coach Kelly's comments that I basically just stole for this point.
Worth noting, O'Hara looked pretty solid. Morro had a nice day and again looks like a guy who is mentally tough enough to go the extra few weeks just like he did this meet last year. Pastore had a nice day. The James boys didn't wow me, but clearly they are good. They are a long shot for nationals, but if NA doesn't run/isn't on their game at regionals (very possible) I don't see how o'hara isn't PAs top team. I'm sorry to jinx you guys. It's my job.
Admittedly, Stoga was missing Cruickshank and Murray today which makes a difference, but I am worried about these guys going forward. It's good they did this race because it's a good chance for these guys to realize they got on the medal stand at states, but I kinda feel like luck was on their side. I'm not sure they should have beat O'Hara but that D1 magic for them to the stand. Things will still be hard the rest of the way. They can't relax and they need to get that crew closer to Marston. Good news: now that I'm starting to jump off their bandwagon, they will probably run great. I jinx everyone, this is a gift.
Josh Hoey runs 9:33 as a freshman and somehow I'm disappointed? This guy is really, really good. He had an off day at Paul Short, but throw out that meet and he had a killer season. He was probably a top 25-30 guy in the state this year as a frosh. Smucker is really good, but Hoey is probably better. These are two fantastic freshman. Really good. Fingers crossed that they keep moving forward. Dahl, Hoey, Hoey, Smucker and Brophy in recent years. These kids are just studs and I'm praying for their health.
DTWest was a bit underwhelming but based on their run at Lehigh, that's not surprising. They also missed out on the fast heat which could be good could be bad ... Hard to say not having been there. These guys excel on hills and authentic XC conditions, so we will see how regionals goes. And these guys are young! They have already exceeded my expectations, let's see if they can continue.
Keep in mind Knapp is a serious sleeper. If the guy runs at NXN you could probably get good odds on him for a nationals bid longshot bet. He has never been particularly speedy on the track but finishes within 5 ticks of Marston and James in the 32? That's good. And Knapp straight killed Wappinger two years ago.
Plus he was one of my fantasy team guys this year and I'm loyal to the boys who come through for me and make me look smarter than I am.
You can really tell which guys are track guys and which guys are XC guys. Look at the difference between Hepp and Newman. Those guys have run identical times in XC but Hepp ran blazing fast in the 32 this meet. Lyle Wistar type growth from Hepp? Scary good 1-2 punch for a DMR? I'm all in on GFS this indoors? Gotta calm down here ...
The same goes for Wills and Doane. Those guys were close all year on the trails, but they switch to the track and Wills drops a big time and runs in the 9:30s. Some guys just love the track (like me) and after months of Hills and grass and mud it's an otherworldly experience to get back on a track. I used to thrive in those races and these guys are cut from my personality mold.
But thankfully for them and their team they are a lot faster than I was!
Good job by all participants! Awesome to see so many PA individuals and teams trying to continue their season. I love it.
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