Warrior Classic Preview

In 2012 the post season 3200m at Henderson produced two team qualifiers and one individual qualifier for the NXN championships in Oregon. In 2013 the Henderson post season XC event produced one team qualifier, one individual NXN qualifier and one individual Footlocker qualifier. So what is in store for 2014?

 

Malvern Prep, the independent school league champions, and Conestoga, the district one champions and state runners up, highlight the team entries for the 2014 edition of the Warrior Classic. Some other notable squads included O’Hara (3rd at states), DT West (4th), West Chester Henderson (runners up at D1) and GFS (runners up at independents). Some of these teams come to the meet looking to increase their depth, while others will look to increase their front running in a battle of competing interests.

 

Conestoga and DT West have shown the most depth out of arguably any team in the state in recent weeks, highlighted by strong performances at Districts and States. Stoga’s pack outlasted a strong trifecta of medalists for O’Hara while DT West jumped teams like Henderson and Easton thanks to their impressive top five depth.

 

This is not meant to imply either team is without firepower. Andrew Marston and Henry Sappey have proven themselves with quality top 10 finishes at states, but in order to be true national contenders, both squads will need to shrink the gap from one to two and three.

 

For Conestoga, this is especially true. Stoga has landed 8 guys in the fast heat of tomorrow’s Warrior Classic, but managed to fit just one guy in the top 50 finishers of November 1st’s PIAA State Championships. That means state champs and fellow national contenders North Allegheny got 4 guys in before Stoga’s #2. In fact, Stoga was the only team out of the top 6 to not have at least two top 50 finishers. PJ Murray and Killian Nelson both had strong races at Lehigh and have shown in the past they may be more comfortable on the track than on the trails. This race could provide a strong opportunity for the duo to drop some big PRs and gain confidence. Cruickshank will look to continue running with Murray and Nelson: it was his step-up performance that landed Stoga on the medal stand in Hershey.

 

Meanwhile, Cooper, Iffert, and Boccella have all finished in a tight bunch the past two races. Inserting McCarthy into the mix means all four guys have their regionals spot on the line at the Warrior Classic, which could provide the motivation for a breakout race to shrink the gap between 4 and 5 that has opened up a bit in recent weeks.

 

Downingtown West was nearly left home from the state championships, but their excellent depth saved them. Then they turned things around beautifully en route to a 4th place finish at states. The secret was likely Ryan Barton who rebounded excellently from Districts and placed in the top 40 at the state championship, giving West the strong #2 they were hoping for. Barton will join Sappey in the fast heat at the Warrior classic, looking to make another strong statement. In the slower section, DT West will showcase their pack with Charlie Barton, Bullock, O’Neill, Ryherd and Blair all among the top seeds in the heat. This is a young group of talented runners, but they have had a long season. Also, DT West ran better on the hills of Hershey than the flats of Lehigh, so a track may not suit their particular skill set. Regardless, West has a chance to continue to gain experience and prove doubters wrong on the Henderson trackTuesday night. Ryherd had two huge races the last two meets, so I’ll be very interested to see how he runs this race. I will also be interested to see if Charlie Barton can recapture some of the magic he had at the Chesmont championships.

 

On the flip side, O’Hara, Henderson, Malvern Prep and GFS will all hope to continue to develop the back end of their  top 7 in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough that can transform their team’s regional hopes. O’Hara had three medalists, but couldn’t overcome the strong pack of Conestoga and ended up a hard fought third. Drew Pastore will be in the fast heat Tuesday while Donovan, Tiaborelli, Nolen and Pat James will fight for a top five spot, but also a spot on the starting line at regionals. Only 3 of those 4 will get to line up in a racing singlet at the end of the month.

 

Henderson has a lot of momentum behind the emergence of freshman sensation Spencer Smucker, who grabbed a medal in one of the fastest state championships in history earlier this month. With a returned to full strength Gordy Barchet, who has shown good speed on the track before, Henderson could make a statement with their top four. The last three varsity members have all consistently improved from week to week so it will be interesting to see how the extra weeks of training benefit them at this meet.

 

Malvern Prep has Jaxson Hoey on the sidelines, hoping he can be back for regionals, but if not they will need to find a strong #5 to go behind a solid top four group. Josh Hoey is fresh off his best race of his high school career at Independents and should be fun to watch in his first really fast 3200. GFS has proven they have one of the best top 3s in the state, but we will see if they can show enough depth to threaten the other top teams in the state.

 

Here are some story lines I’m interested in watching play out at this meet:

 

Sam Ritz, the independent league champion, goes back to the track where he set his blazing fast 4:11 mile PR almost two years ago. Ritz has quietly become a Footlocker Finalist contender in recent weeks after dominating some independent league races and running very fast against Marston in Manhattan. He hits the track Tuesday night, where he should feel very comfortable, and will have a chance to showcase himself against #2 and #3 at states in Kevin James and Andrew Marston. If Ritz runs smart and composed and doesn’t try to set out at 9 flat pace from the gun (he’s seeded at 9 flat), then we could see a big breakthrough for him at this distance.

 

This may be the closest we get to a battle of the top freshman in the state. Josh Hoey, independent league runner up and top 10 finisher at Briarwood and Abington, will do battle with Spencer Smucker, the freshman sensation from Henderson. Smucker showed he can excel on the hills and on the trails and has a ton of momentum on his side, however, Hoey also seems to be finding himself on the trails. He ran a much stronger race at Independents than he did at Paul Short, which means he is heading in the right direction. Also worth noting, Malvern Prep has another freshman in Ryan Doane who will look to mix it up after his 16:20s performance earlier this year at Paul Short.

 

There will also be a battle for the title of top sophomore at this meet. Ryan James and Nick Dahl are two of the best sophomores in the state right now and both guys will be competing at this invitational with a chance to prove themselves. Dahl’s main achievement came at Outdoor Nationals last year when he rocketed off a freshman national title with a 9:15 equivalent 3200m. GFS has shown they peak well in the late season with multiple national qualifying performances in recent years and Dahl is hoping to be the next one in that group. But Ryan James has been running very strong from week to week and, unnoticed by most, placed higher at states as a sophomore than his brother did. I believe Kev ran somewhere around 9:25 at this meet when he was a sophomore, so a similar result may be in store for Ryan. That kind of time would be tough to beat for most of the guys in this field.

 

Alex Knapp and Henry Sappey have gone back and forth the last three weeks, as have their teams. Neither guy really strikes me as a speed demon, but both have proven they are excellent runners. Knapp had a fantastic race at the regional course two years ago as a sophomore to provide the lift Henderson needed to qualify for nationals as a team. If he recaptures some of that magic in two weeks, he could be the big surprise story of nationals weekend. And since Sappey has essentially run stride for stride with Knapp the past month, that could be good news for him as well.

 

I’ll also be watching Grayson Hepp and Joe Newman of GFS who are, surprisingly to me at least, in different heats this weekend. Newman and Hailemichael Geiger from Parkland are two sleepers to run fast times out of the slower heat, especially if that race gets out hard. Hepp and Newman have been side by side all year, but admittedly, Hepp has proven himself on the track quite well in the past. Was that enough to warrant a big difference in seed times for the duo? We will see, but both guys have something to prove Tuesday.

 

Other names that will be interesting to watch are Jack Carmody and some of the Rustin teammates, Rob Morro, Billy McDevitt and Colin Wills. I have heard that Carmody has been playing soccer at the same time as running cross, which, if true, means there is a lot more potential here, especially in a flat race or on a track. Trevor VanAckeren, a runner from Liberty in 2007, ran 15:37 for 5k and 4:15 on the track, but struggled at states in cross because he played soccer at the same time. Carmody had medal potential this past fall, and we may see that potential show up in this meet. Billy McDevitt has had a fantastic season overall, but Sam Ritz had his number the past two weekends. I will be interest to see what McDevitt, a state qualifier last year indoors in the 3k, can do in this field. Rob Morro had one of his best races of the season at this meet last year, so he may be one of those runners that adjusts well to the cold and extra weeks of training. Colin Wills ran low 4:20s last year as you are probably tired of hearing me say, but that comfort level on the track could be a big help at this meet.

 

Final predictions:

 

I think this race should get cranking with James, Marston and Ritz all unafraid to keep things quick. Phil Celona, who if I’m not mistaken is an Archbishop Ryan graduate from 2008, should be an inexperienced head in the race who can either act as a rabbit or act as a strong force to keep things fast when things get tough mid race (not sure what his plan is here). James has had so many tough seconds in big races, including states this year and last year in the mile on this track to Reiny, so I hope he exercises those demons here. Ritz has more speed, but James has more strength so I think he will be able to outlast him. Marston is a wildcard. He clearly has improved his speed from last year, but he is dealing with a couple guys who may end up sub 4:10 milers before their career is done.

 

When the dust settles I have the following results (high school entries only):

1. K James

2. Marston

3. Ritz

4. McDevitt

5. Sappey

6. Dahl

7. R James

8. Jo Hoey

9. Knapp

10. Morro

11. Carmody

12. G Barchet