Here are PA's footlocker finalists since 2006, around the time they started taking 10 from each region other than 8.
Paul Springer, 2006
Mark Dennin, 2007
Chris Aldrich, 2007
Vince McNally, 2007
Ben Furcht, 2008
Brad Miles, 2009
Rad Gunzenhauser, 2009
Ryan Gil, 2009*
Chris Campbell, 2010
Zach Hebda, 2010
Dustin Wilson, 2011
Brendan Shearn, 2012
Max Norris, 2012
Austin Pondel, 2012
Brent Kennedy, 2012*
Ross Wilson, 2013
That's a total of 16 guys over the span of 8 years, or an average of 2 guys per year headed out to San Diego. The most we have ever sent is 4 in 2012, PA's best national year maybe ever. We have not had 0 qualifiers at any point during this span, but have had just a single qualifier 4 times, 50% of the years.
We had just one qualifier last year in 2013 and we have never had back to back single qualifier years. In fact, after each of the 3 previous single qualifier years during this span, we saw at least three footlocker finalists from PA the following year.
Council Rock North is the only team to have more than one qualifier over this span of time thanks to Campbell and Wilson. No two teammates from PA have qualified in the same year although we had some very close calls in 2008 with Furcht and Berman and again in 2010 with Hebda, Juris and Kush.
When the District One Champion has competed at Foot Locker, they have had good fortune. Springer, Aldrich, Furcht, Miles, and Campbell all made it after winning the title. Magaha did not compete at either regional meet and Russell qualified for nationals at the NXN meet back to back years. Meaning, when they have tried, District One Champions have qualified for a national meet 100% of the time.
The AAA state champion has failed to make nats in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2011. Out of the 6 times the state champion has traveled to Foot Locker they have placed in the top 10 just twice, so only 33% of the time compared to 100% for the D1 champ. Surprising stat.
Brendan Shearn in 2012 is the only AA footlocker finalist during this span and he did it during the year he didn't win a state title. Therefore, no AA state champ has made footlocker over this 8 year span. Dustin Wilson is the only Independent League runner to qualify for FL Nats.
Out of the qualifiers, Ross Wilson, Max Norris and Rad Gunzenhauser are the only footlocker finalists who were not state or district champions during that season. Vince McNally has the lowest state finish of any Footlocker Finalist, 18th, but he was 3rd and 5th the previous two years at states. Ben Furcht, 11th, is the only Footlocker finalist who had 0 career top 5 finishes at states (everyone else had at least one finish in the top 4, although Dustin Wilson and Brendan Shearn were independent and AA respectively).
The state title favorites since 2006 were probably:
2006- Springer (actual winner: Weller)
2007- McNally/Aldrich (Dennin)
2008- Furcht (Tarsnane)
2009- Miles (Miles)
2010- Hebda/Campbell (Gil)
2011- Magaha (Quinn)
2012- Kennedy/Savage/Russell (Russell)
2013- Russell (Russell)
2014- Abert (Brophy)
The pre states favorites, you will notice, have excellent resumes at Footlocker: 8 of the 16 Footlocker finalists were state title favorites before states. Dustin Wilson was a clear footlocker pick in 2011 and Brendan Shearn was my AA state title pick in 2012. Meaning we are probably looking at more in the relm of 10 guys with favorite status making it and no one who had favorite status for states and then competed at Footlocker missed out on nats. Again there seems to be evidence indicating that maybe Magaha should have run Regionals ...
(Interesting side note, look how many of those state title favorites actually won the title? Lots of upsets at states traditionally)
Ross Wilson in 2013 and Ryan Gil in 2009 are the only Footlocker Finalist who were on a top 5 team at states. Miles, Campbell and Kennedy were the only other runners to make footlocker that qualified for states with their team.
Easy to say in hindsight, but i think there were few big surprises for qualifiers at Footlocker. I think I'm most surprised by Max Norris and Brent Kennedy in 2012, Norris had a strong stretch run to the season after recovering from injury, Kennedy is one of just two juniors to qualify. Pondel seems like the outlier, but he had a fantastic and underrated XC campaign in 2012. If I remember correctly he was my sleeper pick to make it to San Diego and I was all in on his stock that season. So I don't think I can count him as a surprise.
Track wise, 6 of the 16 guys on the list won state titles either the indoors or outdoors directly after their footlocker qualifying. McNally won the state title the previous year in the 16 as did Shearn in the AA 32 and Gil, who qualified as a junior in 2009, didn't win his track state title until 20011. 14 of the 16 finalists chose to focus on the 32 outdoors with only Campbell and McNally as exceptions (1600m). Austin Pondel is the only Footlocker finalist who never received a medal on the track. He and Campbell are the only ones to never break 9:20 in the 32. 12 of the 16 finished their careers with PRs better than 9:10. 8 of the 16 finished with PRs better than 4:15. McNally probably has the best open PR at 800m with a 1:55.
With all this in mind, who ya got for Footlocker 2014?
wait so there is a guy whose last name is Kush? Screw Slam Dunkley, he is the winner of best name.
ReplyDeleteObviously this depends on whether or not they run, but I think Abert and Brophy will make it. It would be awesome to see Comber and Webb end their cross country careers with a bang too. I think those 4 will make it.
ReplyDeleteI think that Abert is pretty much a lock to make FL. Brophy also seems like a 6-10 spot guy and after that I don't see anyone really making the list. If anyone else snuck in, I'd say that it would be Webb, but it looks unlikely. Many might say Hockenberry, but I just don't seem him running into a nationals position.
ReplyDeleteAt NXN, I could easily see James, Molino, and Jaxson Hoey (if he runs). Marston could also slip up into Nationals positioning.
Abert makes it in as well as brophy if he runs
ReplyDeleteI put my money on Abert. He will have the most to prove coming out of States.
ReplyDelete