AA Performance List
AAA Performance List
Those links above link to the PIAA website for Performance list information. I (FYI this is etrain speaking) will do in depth previews for each of the 4 distance events for both AA and AAA and hopefully answer all the questions you have (and most of the questions you don't) on states. Those should be coming out tonight/Monday/Tuesday depending on time. We also are going to be doing some type of group prediction contest as writers and another contest as fans/readers so be on the look out for those (hopefully all that will be coming to you by Wednesday).
Podcasts and onsite coverage are still up in the air. I'd say there is about a 40% chance I am in attendance at Shippensburg this weekend as of this moment. It's a bit of a hassle to get up there, but if I end up in PA for the long weekend anyway .... I guess we will see.
In the meantime, feel free to continue spreading the buzz here on the site, review the performance lists, and get excited for what is sure to be a historic day.
-train
It's quite possible that to win state gold will take a sub-1:50, sub-4:10, sub-9:00 and sub-7:40.
ReplyDelete800 and 3200, yes. 1600, maybe. 4 x 8, no. Could be an epic 3200 if guys like Abert, Marston, McGoey, Comber and James try to win it by keeping the race honest and try to take the sting out of Brophy and Brehm's legs. If they get out in 4:32 and someone steps up with 3 laps to go, you could have 4-6 guys under 9:00. A guys like Power could also make this race. To beat Brophy, you have to get it out solid and then be willing to run 66, 65, 62 over your last 1200. Say, the 5th lap lags a little and they go through 2k in 5:41-5:43. 10 guys will still be in it. Then it's just a matter of who wants to win a State Championship and who is happy with a medal. If they sit around until the last 400, Brophy and/or Brehm kill them over the last 150.
ReplyDeleteIn the 800, Lewis looks unstoppable. The only question is if he can break the meet and State records.
1600 looks like a 4 man race with Brehm, Van Kooten, Hoey and Kolor. If Brehm triples, he should be toast by then, especially if they run in the 3200. That leaves 3 guys(plus Daly). I'd be worried about Jaxson Hoey's kick if I was in that field. If it goes out slow, he's proven he can run 57-58 seconds and 27-28 for the last 200. The DTW boys were really helped by all of the D1 scratches. They could have 3 guys medal(all underclassmen).
Don't sleep on CBW in the 4 x 8. With Rock not making it in the 1600, they're completely fresh. I'm still picking Pennsbury, but they could be dangerous.
D1 adding a days rest screwed over a bunch of guys since so many doubled to 3200/1600 to cover themselves and then they scratched out. Three wasted spots.
DeleteThat rest day wasn't in the original schedule. It came about when the meet organizers figured out there was a big conflict with the state Keystone Exams. The AD's forgot to check the academic calendar before setting up the meet schedule. BTW- for the 1600 guys an extra day may be no blessing at all. (Legs feel worse two days after a race than the first.)
DeleteIs this a no scratch meet? Will Brehm definitely run the 32? That should be interesting, and he might actually win if it's tactical. There are a bunch of guys in that race who deserve an individual title - James, Comber, Abert, Marston, even Power - and I'd love to see KJ take it. He probably has better speed than Brophy (beat him at indoor states, faster known 800 split), but things could get complicated if he runs the 4x8.
ReplyDeleteI think Hoey is the smart pick in the 16. He hasn't lost a 1600 this year. I could definitely see this being sub-4:10. Van Kooten seems a bit inconsistent to me based on his XC/indoor, but I'll still take him for top 4. I think Webb has proven himself to be capable on the double, so he runs 4:11 or so for 3rd. Surprise(ish) picks: Kravitz 4:14 and Espinal 4:15
John Lewis will break Magaha's record
How sick would it be if D1 took the top 8 in the 4x8? Probably won't happen, but it could have if DTW or Stoga had run it at Districts
Meet is definitely a no scratch meet. Only way brehm is getting out of it is he has a DNF or false starts on purpose or something like that. Another interesting note is Carlise does have a 4x8, so I wonder if he'll be on that?
ReplyDeleteI’m guessing Brehm will go all out in each event so long as his team is still in contention. It looks like Carlisle has a legitimate shot at beating Cheltenham for the team win, especially with Lewis in only two events now. The Carlisle 4x100 and jumpers would need to come up big, points out of Wisner in the 800 would help and it would take a Herculean effort by Brehm, but it’s possible. That’s the only reason I could see for him being entered to triple in the 800/1600/3200, especially in a year like this one with so much talent in those events.
Delete- RJJL
If he is tripling to max points it might have been safer to just double and finish higher in two events by going after 1600/800.
DeleteI would agree 16-8 seems like the safer bet for maximizing points in my eyes as well. That being said, there's a chance for Brehm to win the 32-16-8 over the course of his career which I'm not sure as ever been done and that could make the Carlisle coach opt for this arrangement instead.
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