Day 2 D1 Predictions

by etrain11

So we’re back! As promised, I will predict the state qualifiers from District One now that I have seen the results from the trials yesterday. Hope you enjoy. As usual, I’m cycling through the events in the order that they will be contested. For those of you who hate reading, I've summarized my picks for all events at the very bottom so you can scroll down and see everything without having to read all the nonsense I write.

3200m

This will be the only event where the field could have scratches (well, maybe … we’ll get to that later), so there will be some of my usual, patented speculation surrounding the event. For starters here are some names I expect to see crossed out: Webb (focusing on 4x8/16), Diestelow (focusing on the 16), Perlman (focusing on 16), Desko (focusing on the 4x8), Marquis (focusing on the 4x8), Cook (focusing on the 16). Other than that, I’m not sure there would be any scratches unless there some undisclosed injuries or something of that matter. By my count that slots the field at 37 people! That is going to be an awfully crowded heat and, although I can’t imagine them somehow opting for two heats, they have to at least consider it don’t they? We’ll see what other scratches surface, but for now expect one very crowded heat to start the day.

As far as I’m concerned there are 4 men I expect to toe the line (5 if Webb decides he hates himself enough to triple) that are well clear of the rest of the group and the times back this up. That would of course be Brophy, Marston, Comber, and Power. Also intriguing is that all of these individuals are supposed to come back in another event later in the meet to cap off a difficult double (the 16 for everyone but Brophy who gets the 4x8). Considering there are 5 auto spots to states guaranteed regardless of time, there is technically no incentive to keep this thing fast for those top 4 guys: they are the best in the field and they have to conserve their energy.

So think about the two things I’ve said so far: the field is going to be extremely crowded and there is technically no incentive for things to be fast. That could be a complete disaster.

With all that in mind, it probably will still be quick. These guys are high schoolers, they want to run fast, they just saw McGoey run 8:56 and they would like to leave districts with a gold medal. Plus keeping things slow leaves more variables in the race rather than just running 70s, stringing the field enough, staying out of trouble and still running relatively conservative for 9:00-9:05 types.

Because it’s only districts and not states I’m not sure if some people will be holding back a bit just trying to qualify (I feel Ross Wilson kind of did this last year) rather than authentically push for the win. I’ll assume that everyone does indeed go all out for my predictions because speculating who “needs” or “wants” this win the most is a mixture of silly and impossible.

My picks for the top 4 (with some guess for times, I think things are relatively slow/tactical so the times reflect that):

1. Brophy 9:09.55

2. Comber 9:10.78
3. Marston 9:11.36
4. Power 9:11.47

I think Brophy ends up breaking away in an awesome last lap where these top guys are all close to 60 seconds or faster. Admittedly, I feel that Brophy is most likely to conserve in this event because I think the relay is by far more important to him than the individual 1600s later in the day for the others. However, I feel he has the best wheels and undeniable strength so it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat him. The other 3 are kind of take your pick types.

But there will be other spots on the line at Coatesville and there are a slew of runners who want to get there. Tier 2 is likely made up of Joe Maguire, Alex Knapp, Henry Sappey, Connor McMenamin and Brian Arita with Jeff Kirshenbaum and Andrew Hanna on the bubble for that group. Hard to argue with the success DTW had yesterday in the 1600m trials and I think Sappey’s 9:30 wasn’t a great indicator of just how fast he could go. He was training for the shorter stuff for a decent stretch during indoors/early outdoors and the renewed focus on the 32 should pay dividends in this race. Plus he’s in a race with Knapp, a guy who I think is going to hit the SQS, and similar to the Comber –Brophy duals, Knapp v Sappey brings out the best in those two. My guesses would be:

5. Sappey 9:27.11

6. Knapp 9:27.95
7. Maguire 9:29.36

After those top 7 I could see things unfolding in a variety of ways. For starters, I’m not convinced 8 guys are hitting the SQS in this race. I know that sounds crazy considering it’s District One so if 10 guys  are hitting the standard it’s a disappointment, but running 9:30ish is tricky, especially in a crowded/tactical race. The good news is although it may be tactical for the guys out front, I can’t imagine any borderline state qualifier letting things get too slow. All of these dudes are going to be gunning it trying to extend their season. And there are a ton of borderline guys. I don’t have the space to realistically mention them all.

I think Arita ends up coming up for 8^th. I think he had a strong XC season, a pretty good indoors, and has come on really well in the last couple weeks. Plus the sting of the 4x8 trials is still fresh in his mind (but hopefully not his legs).

8. Arita 9:30.68

Some other story lines to keep an eye on: Frosh Rusty Kujdych who won his heat at Henderson in 9:42 goes for a fast mark. Jack Iffert from Stoga looks to continue a fantastic weekend of PRs for Stoga so far, he’s seeded at 9:43. CB West’s future XC pack Smullen, McDonald and Iatarola take on the field. Can Andrew Hanna and Joe Maguire have a 2008 Furcht and Berman type day (look it up) and both run in the 9:20s (I feel this is incredibly possible)?

4x800m
The big story of day one was that of John Lewis from Cheltenham who committed to the 4x8 in a big way, splitting 1:49 (!!) to get his team the #1 seed in the finals. Already Lewis has run 1:49, 1:55 and whatever he split on the 4x4 that ran 3:17 (my guess is at least 48). Yikes, this dude is going to be busy. But keep in mind if Lewis split something around 1:49.79, for the team to run 7:52 the other legs have to average 2:01.0. Meanwhile, CB West has 5 guys with open PRs at 1:59.5 or faster. I’m not convinced that Cheltenham’s success is sustainable long term unless Lewis is willing to put a TON of energy into the relay, which suddenly leaves him vulnerable in the open 8. Let’s see if the Superman costume fits this weekend and next.

I’m not sure if Cheltenham long term is hoping to be something like 2010 CB South (Tom Mallon anchors the squad all the way through the pack and gets them to states, but then focuses all his energies into purely the open 8 once they get to states) or if this is a legit title push (considering the team title is on the line, it may be the second). The thing was that 2010 CB South team had guys who had run 1:57, 1:57 and 1:58 in the open 8 (or something around there) while Cheltenham does not have anybody who has clocked that fast in the open.

I’m extremely curious to see how they run in this final and how fast Lewis can/will split on the relay. But I don’t think Cheltenham has all that realistic of a shot at the win. In my eyes, this will be Pennsbury’s race to lose. I’m expecting Webb to pass on the 32 to stay fresh for the push for gold and yesterday the team got to relax their way to an 8:02. Sauer is the 2^nd best runner in the district and his squad has shown no signs they can’t get him the baton in the mix. My only possible concern is that it seems to me Sauer does better when he’s chasing than leading so maybe that makes him vulnerable on the anchor leg to a team like CB East, CB West, Pennridge or Penncrest (who are leading the way in my chase pack contenders).

Huge fan of this CB West team. I think they could definitely pull the upset, I’m a little unsure if they will use Fortna on the relay because of the open 16 which would be my only real concern, but I don’t think that’s happening. I think they give a hard push for the win, but ultimately can’t outduel Sauer on the anchor. CB East is definitely a contender. Realistically they have 3 guys who could potentially split 1:55 or faster. That’s something I’m not sure any other team in the state can boast. I don’t know the ability of their last leg (they’ve rotated through a couple guys) and I don’t know exactly what Brophy’s strength level is going to be after the 32 (I feel like he can pull off this double, but I’ve been spoiled by watching Sam Webb do it over the years). Pennridge has beaten CB West, a team I really respect, the last two times they raced. They are the defending district champs and they have their own tool box of 5 or so guys who can split sub 2. For them to take the next leap, I think Dan Williams has to have a big anchor leg, and that might just happen.

Last to mention in my top tier group is Penncrest. I think this team has the potential to be special: Emmanuel’s reported 1:51-52 type split yesterday is a good indicator of the guys potential. They scratched out of the open events for the relay and are clearly focused on a big result. That being said, yesterday in the prelims if Emmanuel split 1:51-1:52, there other legs were basically equivalent to Cheltenham’s other legs on average so my concerns would be the same. I’m not sure is sustainable long term. If they throw Teal back on the relay and Kamat takes the leap to 1:55ish then Penncrest becomes a title contender. If not, it seems reasonable to slot them in their customary 5-8ish range.

So to summarize:
1. Pennsbury 7:48.16
2. CB West 7:49.88
3. CB East 7:51.64
4. Penncrest 7:52.39
5. Cheltenham 7:52.52
6. Pennridge 7:52.99

After that, there are a slew of teams looking for the next spot. My clear cut 7^th team is Abington. I feel like this a good team that had a big day at Leagues that was long coming. I like the way they ran in the big moment at Penn Relays and my only concern would be that they are a bit young and inexperienced. That being said, I’d be surprised if they don’t advance.

7. Abington 7:56.02

Which leaves a toss up for 8^th. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to expect 10 or more teams under the 8 minute barrier on Saturday which is crazy and borderline historic. The extra day of rest between trials and finals can’t hurt that either. The remaining teams are: Bishop Shanahan, CB South, Radnor, Penn Wood, DT East. Because this post is already incredibly long I’ll sum up my thoughts on all the teams in a quick sentence:

Shanahan- hit their potential in the trials, a result that was a long time coming, they are a competitors and winners every time they hit the track which is why I have been a fan and believer

CB South- well coached, great program and Jack Marquis deserves credit for a great season that 9:35 32 was sick, feel like I let his achievements go by without giving him enough shout-outs

Radnor- Andre Kelly and Connor Holm are studs, Kelly has been awesome in recent weeks, 9^th last year with the SQS so looking for revenge

Penn Wood- a 4x4 moving up to the 4x8 is always dangerous, love that they tried the longer distance and had success, did not see that coming at all

DT East- no Caldwell, no problem, developing into a solid program that had a big day yesterday, another Chesmont team that was lurking below the radar

My pick?

8. Shanahan 7:58.36

Radnor a close call for 9^th yet again.

1600m

Remember earlier in the post when I mentioned how the 32 would be the only event with scratches and then I made a parenthetical remark? Of course not, that was like 2 hours ago, this post is gigantic! But pretend you did and allow me to explain. I don’t know the exact rule on this, but I know at the 2007 state meet Andrew Lobb suffered some type of injury in the 4x8. He had qualified from the finals of the open 8, but he decided to scratch, leaving an open spot. Corey Wall ended up getting to run in the finals even though he hadn’t qualified because of the Lobb scratch.

Like I said, I don’t know the rule (remember last year, Russell scratched from the 16 and they did not fill the spot), but if someone scratches well enough in advance they may go back and add the fastest non-qualifier to the finals. The fastest non-qualifier yesterday was PJ Murray who happens to be teammates with one Andrew Marston of Conestoga. I know this sounds crazy, but what if, hypothetically, the 32 goes really fast and Marston runs super hard and knows he is spent for the 16. So he scratches, they get Murray in there and, bang, he’s competing for a spot at states against a slew of other tired 32/4x8 guys!

If I’m Coach Comstock I probably know the rule and know if this is possible or not (I may have just wasted two paragraphs discussing it). If it is, I’m definitely prepping Murray because let’s be real with Fortna, Comber, Power, Marston and Webb all slated to run prior to the 16 the odds of one of them scratching aren’t zero.

That being said, I’ll go ahead and assume the 12 guys currently slated to run in the final, do indeed run in the final. So how does the race unfold? For starters, I have to throw the doublers out of title contention. I’ve seen a ton of people pull it off (Russell won the 32-16 last year, Palmisano ran 4x8 and won the 16 in 2009, Weller was second in the 32 and won the 16 in 2007), but considering the depth of the 32 and the 4x8 as well as this 16, I don’t see anybody pulling clear for a crazy double.

That only leaves the following names: Jaxson Hoey, Diestelow, Barton, Eddinger, Perlman*, Cook, Josh Hoey. I think Josh, Cook, Perlman and Barton have all had great seasons thus far, but I can’t imagine them pulling off gold here given their resumes. Diestelow is an intriguing name for race day, but I don’t see him winning this one either. His PR came yesterday in the trials at 4:18 and I think it’s going to take 4:13 or faster to win (unless it gets tactical).

That leaves Jaxson Hoey vs. Dylan Eddinger in what is sure to be a thrilling battle for the title. Eddinger comes in as a former 800m specialist who found his 1600 potential in recent weeks including a 4:14 runner up finish to Paul Power. Hoey was a stand out a year ago and seems to be returning to form after an injury sidelined him for all of indoors and the meat of XC. I’d imagine most people see Jaxson as the clear favorite, but I’m not 100% sold. I think Eddinger is still learning just how good he can be at the 1600 and has split 1:53 a variety of times this year.

1. Jaxson Hoey 4:13.19

2. Dylan Eddinger 4:13.97

But I’m still picking Jaxson. I think this his race to lose, especially when you factor in that Eddinger has one extra race in his legs and one extra race to run later in the day.

After the top 2 the doublers are back in play for me. But who can swing this double effectively? And how will the doubling runners stack up against the fresh ones? It’s quite tricky to figure out. I will see that I think doubling at states is much more difficult than it is at districts so I could see a few guys pulling out awesome doubles, especially if the 32 lags a bit and goes slow. My picks here are basically pure speculation on doubling ability and gut feelings rather than actual logic or analysis, so I’ll just give you my top 8:

3. Webb 4:15.39

4. Power 4:16.89
5. Diestelow 4:17.25
6. Comber 4:18.14
7. Barton 4:19.62
8. Josh Hoey 4:19.95

800m

John Lewis’s 5^th race of the meet should be an interesting one. The good news is, unlike states where Graca will be eagerly awaiting with fresh legs, his main competition all will be attempting a similar, if not identical, series of races. Sauer, Kelly, Williams and Boucher will all be coming back from the 4x8 while Eddinger will be coming off the 1600. That leaves the freshest seeds as Sean McGinnis, Kamil Jihad, Killian Nelson, Jimmy Cooper, Ahmir Gordon and Brett Wolfinger (seeds 5,7, 10, 11 and 12 from the prelims).

It’s hard to pick against Lewis here, mainly because I don’t see someone who is going to beat him. If Sauer manages to get a cakewalk on the anchor leg (very unlikely) and can conserve for this final while Lewis rolls to a 1:48 type split on the 4x8, maybe we see the upset. But I just can’t bring myself to pick against Lewis. But I repeat myself from earlier, this will be a vulnerable stretch for Lewis, possibility the most vulnerable he will ever be this season. If you want to beat him, now might be your only chance.

1. Lewis 1:51.96
2. Sauer 1:52.55

After that? Um … things are probably going to be as tightly contested as they were in Heat 1 of the prelims when the top 5 finishers ran within 0.14 seconds of each other! And they were running 1:55! I don’t see many guys who I project to be faster than 1:54-1:55 in this final so if anyone breaks through for a 1:53 I’d expect them to come away with bronze. But that may be a misguided estimate. Here’s my best guess as to how things unfold.

3. Eddinger 1:54.91

4. Nelson 1:55.52
5. Jihad 1:55.59
6. Boucher 1:56.18
7. McGinnis 1:56.62
8. Williams 1:56.85

I may be acting a bit conservatively on times considering that there is now a day of rest between trials and finals, but I think the hard racing on day 1 and the hard racing earlier in the day for a lot of these runners will end up in their legs when they try to find that gear. Especially if Lewis decides this race is going out in 54 seconds.

So that's a wrap! Let me know what you think!

Summarized picks ...

1. Brophy 9:09.55

2. Comber 9:10.78
3. Marston 9:11.36
4. Power 9:11.47
5. Sappey 9:27.11
6. Knapp 9:27.95
7. Maguire 9:29.36
8. Arita 9:30.68

1. Pennsbury 7:48.16

2. CB West 7:49.88
3. CB East 7:51.64
4. Penncrest 7:52.39
5. Cheltenham 7:52.52
6. Pennridge 7:52.99
7. Abington 7:56.02
8. Shanahan 7:58.36

1. Jaxson Hoey 4:13.19

2. Dylan Eddinger 4:13.97
3. Webb 4:15.39
4. Power 4:16.89
5. Diestelow 4:17.25
6. Comber 4:18.14
7. Barton 4:19.62
8. Josh Hoey 4:19.95

1. Lewis 1:51.96

2. Sauer 1:52.55
3. Eddinger 1:54.91
4. Nelson 1:55.52
5. Jihad 1:55.59
6. Boucher 1:56.18
7. McGinnis 1:56.62
8. Williams 1:56.85

PS Just a little public service announcement. For those of you who don’t know I keep a list of every individual I’ve found who has broken the 4:17, 1:55 and 9:20 barriers and that is what I use to keep my All Time list up to date and what I will be using for a special project this summer. I include splits in the document (not as part of the numbered list but rather as a point of reference) and all splits I include must be to at least the tenths place (e.g. 1:54.5 or 1:52.8). So if anybody has splits to the tenths place for Districts (Emmanuel and Lewis in particularly sound like they ran PRs in the trials) or from Power at leagues or Luckanitz in that dual meet (I heard both split 1:54 and those should go on the list, but I need the tenths) or anywhere else that would be of service to the list in the past or in the coming weeks I would really appreciate it. Thanks everybody.