Penn Relay Predictions Recap

Here goes my pre-post ramble…For the next two weeks I’ll be dealing with finals so I apologize if my amount of posts goes down in that span. Luckily, the writers are at it full force and will continue to pump out excellent material. They will even be having a Payton Jordan preview coming up (if it’s not already out) so be on the lookout for that. I will also be trying to make one last article (before my finals) sometime on Sunday or Monday. It’ll be a bit more fun than just results and analysis like I typically do so keep clicking that NCAA tab until then.

So on that note, let’s take a trip back in time and review all the action that happened at Franklin Field last week.

3000St. Championship

Predicted:
  1. Joshua Roche (Indiana)- 8:56.11
  2. Isaac Spencer (Texas A&M)- 8:58.09
  3. Matthew Howard (Georgetown)- 8:58.32
  4. Max Darrah (Georgetown)- 8:59.97
  5. Duncan Tomlin (Yale)- 9:02.03

Outcome:
  1. Issac Spencer (Texas A&M)- 8:59.94
  2. Eric Rupe (Youngstown St.)- 9:03.20
  3. Mackay Wilson (Kentucky)- 9:03.70
  4. Duncan Tomlin (Yale)- 9:04.26
  5. Spencer Hrycay (Kentucky)- 9:04.83

Like I admitted in my predictions, I didn’t know much about this field. I knew Issac Spencer was good but looked too much into his past times for me not to give him the win. Duncan Tomlin was a good choice but was just a spot off with him. What really did me in was how much influence I gave to those with fast 1500’s. What I saw in a quick video from Flotrack, was Roche in the front pack at the bell. However, he seemed spent and he eventually fell off. Darrah and Howard didn’t translate their speed how I thought they would either. That really threw off my predictions. That said, great running by the Kentucky guys. Mackay Wilson would’ve been my 6th man if predicted that low. I also have to give Rupe props on his effort. He hung tough and got himself a solid time considering the poor conditions (cold and windy).

5000 Championship

Predicted:
  1. Craig Lutz (Texas)- 13:51.27
  2. Matt Fischer (Penn St.)- 13:55.22
  3. Jacob Thomson (NC State)- 13:57.68
  4. Kevin Dooney (Yale)- 14:00.02
  5. Thomas Madden (UVA)- 14:00.44

Outcome:
  1. Robert Sandlin (Kentcuky)-13:51.69
  2. Craig Lutz (Texas)- 13:57.67
  3. Glen Burkhardt (Penn St.)- 14:02.09
  4. Matt Fischer (Penn St.)- 14:02.60
  5. Mark Pinales (Texas)- 14:06.27

Good news- I got the winning time right (not counting the milliseconds). Bad news- 2 of my top 5 didn’t even cross the finish line. Jacob Thompson wasn’t anywhere on the results. That’s really disappointing because he could’ve made this race a lot more interesting. Thomas Madden was actually in the race but has a DNF mark. Not great news if you’re me. What was also disappointing was Dooney finishing in 6th place, which is such a tease. Another .2 seconds and he gets fifth. Then I have 3 in the top 5 rather than 2. But I digress…the real story was how Kentucky didn’t stop their great performances at the 3kSt. Sandlin went with Lutz and they pulled away from the field. Sandlin would eventually give a tremendous kick to beat out Lutz for the win. It’s a great race for Sandlin but slightly disappointing for Lutz. I’m not looking too much into this race but I would’ve liked to see Lutz get a win. Nice racing by Burkhardt and Fischer though. The two Unionville alum and 2-mile state champs stepped up quite nicely.

10,000 Championship

Predicted:
  1. Aaron Dinzeo (California Pa.)- 29:19.39
  2. Michael Biwott (American International)- 29:26.54
  3. August Pappas (Michigan)- 29:37.79
  4. Ty McCormack (Auburn)-29:43.00
  5. Brian King (Georgetown)- 29:48.21

Outcome:
  1. Ty McCormack (Auburn)- 29:21.39
  2. Hugh Armstrong (Providence)- 29:55.00
  3. Toby Loveridge (Cinncinnati)- 29:56.38
  4. Michael Biwott (American International)- 29:56.94
  5. Alex Izewski (Temple)- 29:58.15

So clearly this wasn’t McCormack’s first 10k like I suggested it was. He handled this race pretty easily and showed some outstanding strength for running in no mans land and in sub-par conditions. Biwott didn’t wow me. I thought he’d do better given his past credentials. I also need to address the blaring difference in my predictions which was 3 of my top 5 guys didn’t even race (including my predicted winner). It’s really tough to say who’s going to go through with what race. That task becomes even harder when the consideration of relays the next day comes into play. However, Dinzeo has a bit of an excuse. According to fellow writer Evan Hatton, Dinzeo was sighted in a boot so unfortunately he is dealing with injuries.

Distance Medley Relay Championship

Predicted:
  1. Oregon- 9:30.88
  2. Georgetown- 9:31.42
  3. Villanova- 9:34.61
  4. Duke- 9:36.75
  5. Stanford -9:37.25

Outcome:
  1. Oregon- 9:33.86
  2. Villanova- 9:34.36
  3. Stanford- 9:37.11
  4. Indiana- 9:37.71
  5. Columbia- 9:38.23

Unsurprisingly, it came down to Cheserek kicking it in at the end. Oregon got a predictable win even if it was somewhat close. As I mentioned earlier in the 10k review, it’s difficult to know who is running what. Cheserek was not supposed to be in that line up. I really thought Geoghegan would be in there, but Oregon gave a little surprise and put the King to work. It was a goood thing they did it too. Nova decided to put their ace, Jordy Williamsz in and I’m not sure anyone except Cheserek could have matched Jordy’s kick (in this race at least). Stanford takes third place. Nothing surprising there. These three teams are the track powerhouses and I don’t see that diminishing any time soon. Indiana takes a very solid fourth place finish. The Hoosiers 800 star, Tre’tez Kinnaird, had an outstanding lead off leg and was able to keep them in it. In fifth place Columbia continues to impress me. I should’ve gone with my gut and put them in the top 5 somewhere this week but unfortunately I did not and I regret it. The Lions had a great 2:56.57 split from Brendon Fish as well as a 1:48.26 split from Connor Clafin.

4xMile Championship

Predicted:
  1. Villanova- 15:55.79
  2. Oregon- 15:57.68
  3. Stanford- 16:06.73
  4. Georgetown- 16:08.98
  5. Penn State- 16:10.40

Outcome:
  1. Villanova- 16:18.07
  2. Oregon- 16:18.93
  3. Stanford- 16:20.44
  4. Georgetown- 16:22.50
  5. Wisconsin- 16:24.01

Life is good when you’re the king. Would I know? Not really, but I imagine it can’t be too bad. I was convinced that no one was beating Cheserek in a kickers race. I watched the race unfold and I was dumbfounded at the fact that the field was just going to give him the gold. Surely everyone knew that there was no way they could hang with the best finisher in the NCAA. At the same time, the best finisher in the NCAA is also the best distance runner in the NCAA and a faster pace would just drop the rest of the pack. It would leave only Jordy Williamsyz a fighting chance (IMO). As suspected, no one wanted to be the sacrificial lamb in this race and what was a laughable jog turned into a shocking display of the underdog earning the spotlight.

Jordy outkicked the man who can’t be outkicked. He beat the king. It’s not too often we see that happen. I’m sure Cheserek thought he had it locked down. He figured he was an automatic in this race and I don’t blame him. You outkick a guy the day before with relative ease and there’s no reason to think you can’t do it again. However, this time was different and Jordy got his revenge. With 100 to go, you could tell it was over and Ches knew it too.

The race didn’t play out in the way I suspected it to. History indicates that it’s almost always going to be a tactical battle. I should’ve known better and next time I wont be as naïve. That said, I have to give myself a little pat on the back here. I called 4 of the top 5 teams in order. Not bad, although I felt that it was a pretty predictable order with Nova and Oregon being the only iffy ones. Fifth place was wide open in my mind and with Penn St not running it I felt that Columbia and Oklahoma were the next ones to get the spot. However, it was Wisconsin that showed they had some speed and they grabbed fifth with the quickest split of 4:02.30 from Joe Hardy.

4x800 Championship

Predicted:
  1. Texas A&M-7:17.85
  2. Georgetown- 7:19.06
  3. Georgia Tech- 7:19.94
  4. Villanova- 7:22.53
  5. Indiana- 7:24.32

Outcome:
  1. Georgia Tech- 7:18.84
  2. Georgetown- 7:18.86
  3. Villanova- 7:19.35
  4. Texas A&M- 7:20.60
  5. Stanford- 7:21.17

I was not able to catch this race but all the teams that I thought would be contenders were. A little disappointed by Texas A&M. They had the pieces to win this but couldn’t close. Efrain Hernandez didn’t run quite what I thought he could. However, the other Hernandez’s went 1:49 (Is it safe to assume they are brothers? Hernandez is a pretty common name but 3 of them on the same squad? I don’t know just pointing it out). Georgia Tech however showed up big time and surprised me a lot especially with Brandon Lasater’s 1:47.06 split! Excellent running from him to seal the deal in this race. GT joins Columbia as teams I should’ve trusted my gut on. Stanford and Nova didn’t surprise me. They’re established powerhouse teams and they showed it last weekend. Georgetown comes in at second just as I predicted thanks to a 1:47.37 split from Joseph White.

Quick S/O to Ned Willig! He dropped a 1:48.82 for Brown putting him as the fifth fastest split in the entire race. He was also the fastest PA alum which included names like Nate McClafferty, Luke Lefebure, Tom Coyle, Drew Magaha, Jeff Wiseman, and Tom Timmins.


Don’t forget to comment and provide feedback.

Yours truly,

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