This ended up being a lot longer than I thought it was gonna be, wow. I’m slightly optimistic with my predictions in a few spots as well, but I wanna see people run fast. I split these into heats based off of how they have been split up in the past, so depending on what they decide to do tomorrow this could be slightly different.
800 qualifying times:
Graca, Elias Fox Chapel Area 1:53.78
Kolor, Mike Seneca Valley 1:54.57
Quealy, Trey Norwin 1:55.91
Wagner, Nick Penn Trafford 1:56.51
Bailey, Isaiah Penn Hills 1:56.90
Terrell, Duwon Penn Hills 1:57.34
Bove, Michael Fox Chapel Area 1:58.00
Seel, Scott North Allegheny 1:59.06
Murray, Marshall Penn Hills 1:59.64
Laughery, Tyler Norwin 2:00.05
Carlsson, Preston Knoch 2:00.73
Schaelchlin, Caleb North Allegheny 2:01.19
Voto, Anthony New Castle 2:01.22
Wertz, Matthew Upper Saint 2:01.26
Mastovich, Tim Franklin Regional 2:01.46
Strosko, Michael Canon-McMillan 2:01.62
Critchlow, Brandon Butler 2:01.80
Scholl, Skyler Ringgold 2:01.89
Sandala, Devan South Fayette 2:02.68
Pugliano, Luca Peters Township 2:03.37
Kohler, Bill Canon-McMillan 2:05.23
Colson, Micah Chartiers Valley 2:06.20
Dougher, Andrew Bethel Park 2:06.41
Banton, Chase Upper Saint 2:07.02
Like every other distance race at WPIALs this year, there are 1 or 2 clear favorites. This should end up being an awesome showdown between Graca and Kolor. Kolor is going to have a hard 1600 in his legs going into this, but he is a fighter and will not go down without giving Graca a hard time first. Nick Wagner made giant strides during indoor, and I think he beats out rival Trey Quealy as just a sophomore. The Penn Hills trio of Duwon Terrell, Isaiah Bailey and Marshall Murray all snuck into the fast heat and could all make the trip to Shippensburg if they work together. Its awesome to see Terrell find success moving down in distance, he was always a 3200 guy the few times I ran against him. Michael Strosko. The Canon-Mac senior has not had the greatest outdoor season, but I think that the Strosko that dropped a 1:57 indoor by himself is still there somewhere. He is in the slow heat, but his best races have always come by himself, so I think being alone will help him out a bit so he’s my final state qualifier.
Top 8 predictions:
1600 qualifying times:
Van Kooten, Jeff Pittsburgh Central Catholic 4:28.27
Kolor, Mike Seneca Valley 4:28.49
Stupak, Jacob North Allegheny 4:28.80
Krist, Jason Hampton 4:29.48
Rader, Josh Butler 4:29.88
Quiggle, Tanner Seneca Valley 4:30.20
Batykefer, Rusty Pine-Richland 4:30.58
Wolk, Nick Peters Township 4:30.93
Weese, Jonathan Canon-McMillan 4:32.82
McNally, Killian North Hills 4:33.69
Kennedy, Eric Kiski Area 4:33.72
Harris, Ian Mount Lebanon 4:35.09
White, Zack West Allegheny 4:35.35
Colson, Micah Chartiers Valley 4:35.56
King, Frankie Greensburg Salem 4:36.69
Kalapos, Joshua Mount Lebanon 4:36.99
Lenze, Samuel Indiana Area 4:37.24
Trottier, Brett Franklin Regional 4:37.48
Zimba, Ryan Bethel Park 4:39.98
Sneath, Bennett Upper Saint Clair 4:40.05
O'Neil, Matt Norwin 4:40.89
Papas, August Hempfield Area 4:41.34
Stack, Jordan Hempfield Area 4:45.43
Mraz, Dj Belle Vernon 4:46.73
I’m so happy that tomorrow is my day off of work this week so I can see WPIALs live. The 1600 is just like the 800 in that there are two guys who will be battling out front and then it is really anyone’s race for 3-8. This will be Mike Kolor’s first race of the day, so I expect him to take this with a pretty quick time. I definitely think he has something sub 4:15 in his legs. If Central runs their stacked 4x8, however, Jeff Van Kooten will be running on tired legs. This wouldn’t worry me with most guys, but there is just something about VK that has me nervous about the double. Jacob Stupak and Nick Wolk have both stepped up huge this year, running 4:21.2c and 4:23.0c at the Baldwin Invite, respectively. I’ve run against Nick several times, and he has some serious guts when it comes to racing. Being the underdog fan that I am, I think Wolk comes out on top between the two of them. Now for 5-8, I have no clue. This race is so wide open its ridiculous.
Top 8 predictions:
3200 qualifying times:
Heinauer, Jacob North Hills 9:49.99
Wharrey, Hunter North Allegh 9:50.21
Mcgoey, Matt North Allegh 9:50.22
Gunzenhauser, Todd Mount Lebanon 9:50.48
Burchlaw, Mike North Hills 9:51.06
Linderman, Ethan Canon-McMillan 9:51.22
Conboy, Casey Baldwin 9:52.98
Susalla, Jake Plum 9:54.67
Burkhart, Shane Bethel Park 9:57.49
Halasowski, Jacob Fox Chapel Area 9:59.35
Young, Daniel Pittsburgh Central Catholic 10:00.09
Baun, Ian Mount Lebanon 10:06.05
Beveridge, Noah Butler 10:06.39
Doyle, Dennis Baldwin 10:09.29
Blechman, Sam North Allegheny 10:14.83
Artinger, Jon West Allegheny 10:15.47
Pfeil, Aaron South Fayette 10:17.69
Wagner, Michael Penn Hills 10:23.75
Provenzo, Mark Franklin Regional 10:24.07
Lenze, Samuel Indiana Area 10:29.43
Klatt, Paul Uniontown Area 10:32.01
Stack, Jordan Hempfield Area 10:32.05
Lee, Nick Norwin 10:32.38
Bishop, Cole Penn Hills 10:39.26
The qualifying 3200s for WPIALs are great indicators of who these races are going to come down to. Usually, the top 4-5 in each region will finish together, just running easy to get in. Heinauer, Wharrey, McGoey and Burchlaw all ran 9:49-9:51 in the North, Gunz, Linderman and Conboy ran 9:50-9:52 in the South and Susalla soloed a 9:54 in the Central. This race is most likely going to be between those eight. That being said, it’s a race for second. Even though he’ll have a 4x8 earlier in the day, I see no reason that Matt McGoey doesn’t win this race. Gunzhas been killing it this season, broke out this season with a 9:38 solo against Susalla, and then dropped down to 9:16 the next weekend. Wharrey has had some solid times this outdoor season, but I’m yet to be blown away by anything he’s done. Heinauer has continually impressed me this season, running 4:23 and 9:17 over the course of the season. Ethan Linderman’skick is deadly. If he is within striking distance with 4-600 to go, he could take the silver. Casey Conboy, just a sophomore, hopes to add his name to the likes of DeGregorio and Kuchta in continuing Baldwin’s history of showing up big time at the WPIAL 3200.
Top 8
4x800
North Allegheny 8:02.61
Penn Hills 8:06.47
Pittsburgh Central Catholic 8:08.13
Butler 8:10.52
Hempfield Area (7) 8:11.24
Knoch 8:13.57
Norwin 8:15.32
Baldwin 8:18.64
Canon-McMillan 8:19.50
Franklin Regional 8:22.23
Ringgold 8:24.14
Mars Area 8:28.90
Hopewell 8:29.17
Chartiers Valley 8:29.21
Moon Area 8:30.28
Kiski Area 8:30.80
Seneca Valley 8:32.34
Connellsville Area 8:34.66
Plum 8:36.64
Peters Township 8:36.88
Upper Saint Clair 8:40.61
Bethel Park 8:41.85
Mount Lebanon 8:48.90
Trinity (7) 8:54.42
In my Baldwin Invite post, I brought up the possibility of North Allegheny trying to snatch the 4x800 from Penn Hills, like the did with Kiski a few years back. Called. It. If my sources are solid, McGoey split a 1:56 on their relay at WPIAL Team Championships a few weeks back. That’s huge. I’m not sure where they’ll have him on the relay, but if he is on the anchor, there are not many teams in here with guys who could run with him. Penn Hills and their crew will not be going down without a fight though. Their top 3 have PRs under 2:00, two of them at 1:56. They need their #4 to step up big though if they want this win, he holds an open PR of only 2:09. Butler is a team that I wouldn’t count out of the race for gold. They’ve got three guys more than capable of hitting 1:58, including freshman standout Noah Beveridge. Canon Mac is another team I’m confident in. Caden Meier has 50.x 400 speed, Linderman and Weese are both unbelievably strong, and Strosko on the anchor has the guts to reel in anybody he may need to.
Top 8 predictions:
Why are their qualifying times so slow at this point in the year? There's a lot of talent there but those times don't reflect the potential.
ReplyDeleteThose times aren't the fastest they have run this year. You can only qualify for WPIALs at a WPIAL qualifying meet. The races are notoriously tactical, for example half of the fast heat of the 1600 all ran the qualifying race together and were all right at 4:28-4:30.
DeleteThey qualify this meet at three different regional-type meets held last week. There are three regions -- North, South, Central. Top 8 in each event in each region qualify. In the distance events (especially 3200), guys just run for place and get the time.
ReplyDeleteWPIAL qualifiers were on a very hot day (mid-high 80's). The top runners in the 1600m and 3200m usually only run for place, and with the heat went even slower. At the qualifier I attended, the kids were even chatting back and forth during the race.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff Evan! I'll chime in with a few thoughts because I can't resist. I think NA is going to swing the upset in the 4x8. I'm not exactly sure how because on paper Penn Hills has been way better (and I've mentioned that I am a huge fan of this team a variety of times on the blog) but I think NA gets the W. I wouldn't be surprised if McGoey runs at least 1:54
ReplyDeleteNot win is my sleeper pick for states in the 4x8, although I also like your take on Butler and Canon Mac.
The 16 is going to be interesting. I'm not sure how hard JVK is going to run on that 4x8, but Kolor has been hot on his heels all year. I like the pick there and agree. Krist and Kennedh would be my sleepers but my picks are quite similar to yours.
800m is a similar story. Graca's fresh legs help him get to the line first, but I think Kolor makes it work. This could be a big statement moment for Elias who could really use a 1:52-1:51 type statement race going into states where I'm sure the goal is probably sub 1:50 (and more importantly state gold).
McGoey certainly should win the 32, but the battle behind him for state qual spots is going to be really fun. The AA side is going to be really interesting as well with so much talent there (Winchester Thurston probably could have sent a full 5 guys to districts if there wasn't a limit on entries). Big fan of the Shane Burkhart pick, he was clutch in XC.
Great job! Pumped to see how the predictions line up with the actual results.