My Band: D12 Preview

By etrain11

I'm back from my trip! And yes, it's late and yes, no one will probably read this before the actual action gets underway tomorrow, but whatever. I have to get in a little something after my long lay off or I start to get the shakes. So let's do this District 12 Preview real quick.

Performance List

On the AA side, this should be a coming out party for Masterman. The D12 XC champions are set up to send through a variety of runners to states as Previdi in the 32, Lutzner in the 16 and 8 and the squad's 4x8 are all basically locks to get to states (I believe I read somewhere that D12 AA sends 3 automatically in each event? meaning that in the 32 and 4x8 if you finish the race you go to states). The real question will be how is Lutzner going to transition to states. If Masterman goes all out in the 4x8 that leaves him vulnerable in the individual events. If he stays fresh for the individuals a low 4:20s/1:55 guy is extremely dangerous in the hunt for one of the top medal spots. Also worth noting is Neuman Goretti who I think is a sleeper to make noise in the 4x8 and has some strong runners in Gordon and Francis worth watching. 

On the AAA side, things are a bit more complicated. The top 2 teams in each event go automatically and the others need to hit the SQS to qualify. Last year conditions were far from ideal so many of those time qualifying spots were left unfulfilled. This year, we will see if that trend holds. I'm not positive on the order of events at this meet, but the big news is that the stud O'Hara trio from XC of James, James and Morro has scratched from individual events besides the 32 (RJ is technically in the open 8, but the 32 seems the focus), setting them up for a run to try and get all 3 to Ship by eclipsing the 9:31 mark (which I believe would be a fairly sizeable PR for Ryan, but certainly something I believe he is capable of). This also, depending on schedule, leaves the door open for the indoor DMR state champs to pursue a 4x8 squad at states. Realistically, considering the fact that the 32 is before the 4x8 at states, if O'Hara makes it to states, it's not unreasonable to think they might try and run their "A" team in the prelims to see if they can make finals. It's equally likely they hold KJ out of the line up and let him rest up for a run at state gold against Brophy and co., but it's worth keeping an eye on. Brophy and Webb will likely be running the 4x8-32 double themselves.

Also interesting to me is the fact that while searching online it appears that different events are held at different locations at Districts? According to one link pole vault, discus and javelin are held at LaSalle, the 100-200, 100/110 hurdles, 3200m and the HJ, LJ, TJ are at Germantown HS and the rest of the track events and the shot put are set to happen at Northeast. I'm far from familiar with the area or the set up, but it appears that all the events are happening at the same time and I have no idea how close each location is to the others? I'm not sure what this means for those doubling with the 32 or the sprints, so some insight here from others would be helpful. Certainly an interesting set up.

Assuming that no one's doubling is affected by the multi-location set up here are some more thoughts on the AAA competition. I'm very excited for the 4x8 because, at least on paper, this is going to be an epic showdown. LaSalle's 4x8 has scratched from the individuals, meaning they are 100% all in on the relay.That puts a bit of healthy pressure on the squad to run fast and make sure their time as well as their place is secure to guarantee a spot to Ship. As mentioned, I expect O'Hara to throw out a strong team to try and qualify for states. Whether or not they run their "A" team in Ship is far from certainly, but a squad of Morro, KJ, Jones and Nolen seems capable of running well under 8 minutes. 

There is also St. Joe's Prep, who delivered at states, nationals and Penn Relays as a top tier DMR squad behind anchor john Daly. Don't let the lowercase j fool you, Daly is a beast and if he teams up with McClellan (1:57 this year), Fisher (1:59 last year, but I haven't seen much from him this year so he might be injured) and one other piece (maybe one of their 400 legs from their 3:19 4x4?) this team should be back under 8 like they were a year ago at states. But it's unclear if that's the priority. Considering they have such a strong 4x4 and Daly and McClellan are both serious contenders for states individually if Fisher is injured or missing from the line up, they may just choose to scratch the relay entirely and move on. 

And finally, we have Bonner who came on strong late in the season this past winter to hit the SQS and is now looming as a potential sleeper to put together a similar push here at D12s. They come in with an 8:02 seed time and appear to be a fairly well balanced team, let by up and coming Sean Sullivan (currently sitting as the #1 seed in the open 8 after a few scratches). In theory, this team could run 7:59 and still end up 4th (in which case they punch a ticket to states on time) so nothing is guaranteed, especially if conditions are poor or the race gets tactical. That being said, I think this Bonner squad has a great chance of punching a ticket to Ship and it will be interesting to see how LaSalle, likely the favorite coming in, handles the competition for gold from these squads.

In the individual events, it at least appears that Daly should have limited problems navigating the 1600m field as he is the top seed by about 10 seconds and his relay personal best is roughly 15 seconds ahead of the pack. With two runners from the district assured a spot on the line in Ship, that's good news for Daly. Behind him, some young up and comers will fight hard for the other state qualifying spot as seeds 2-4 are freshman and sophomores including LaSalle's Evan Addison and Sean Brown from Roman Catholic, who's brother made the state finals in this event last year (at least I'm assuming they are related, same school with same last name doesn't necessarily mean they are related just against Brendan and Andrew Stone). My pick here is Chris Hendry of Frankford who is fresh off an excellent 3200m race and is a Senior focused on taking one last shot at states.

In the 800m Sullivan and McClellan seem like the logical choices for the two state spots and I would be fairly surprised if they don't earn the trip. However, if they have to run hard on the 4x8 and are doubling back anything can happen. Especially when you consider that Phil Colbert from George Washington is lurking in the field.

As mentioned, the 32 appears like it will set up as a time trial of sorts to try and ensure that all 3 O'Hara boys are on the line at states. That's good news for the other runners in the field hoping to chase a fast time and maybe sneak into states as well. One of those runners is Ryan Rastatter of Bonner who anchored the team's aforementioned DMR indoors. Some others include LaSalle's army of Sean Princavalle, Stephen Paul and Ryan Mitchell as well as Joe Pisacano from St. Joe's Prep. I'm not sure anyone from this group will crack 9:30, as it's a difficult mark to eclipse, but the race should set up very well for a real run at it. I'm hoping to see some guys drop excellent PRs and earn a spot on the line next weekend.

Good luck to all! D1 preview coming tomorrow, Evan should have his WPIAL preview up soon and Caleb and Sean will be bring you D3 coverage! Yay, running.