The Writers Round Table: State's Predictions

Sean Collins

3200:

I honestly have no idea how to pick this race. I’ve played it time and time again in my head and it has played out differently every time. We have 2 people who have broke 9, a multi-time state champ, a 3rd place runner at nationals, a perennial 2nd place guy, a sub-15 5k XC, and the district 1 champion. With this in mind, I don’t think any of these guys think they can beat everyone. I think everyone has it in their mind that they can get 3rd, but no one thinks that they can win. So, I don’t think anyone is going to drive the pace. Everyone is going to be too scared to lead because of who can latch on for an easier ride. I expect 4:38 through the mile.

 

8. Abert 9:14

7. Marston 9:13

6. Power 9:11

5. James 9:10

4. Brophy 9:07

3. Comber 9:07

2. McGoey 9:05

1. Brehm 9:04

 

(Can I just give them all 3200 titles???)

 

4x800:

With Friday looking to be windy, the possibility of a team blowing up and not making the final is high. My picks for the final are: CBW, Abington, Radnor, B Shanahan, Pennsbury, Penncrest, Pennridge, Altoona, Cedar Crest, Cardinal O’hara, North Alleghany, and Penn Wood. Going into the final, none of these teams will have multiple tired legs. NA is the most susceptible to doubling with Wharrey and McGoey in the 32, but I don’t have them medaling anyways. James may also try to double for COH, or they might try to run without him, although I think that him on the double is the best idea. It’s tough to pick against Pennsbury here with Webb and Sauer. Look for big things from a non-D1 team though, someone always steps up in the 4x8 to challenge the East.

 

Prediction:

8. Bishop Shanahan 7:53

7. Altoona 7:53

6. Penncrest 7:52

5. Cedar Crest 7:51

4. Abington 7:51

3. Radnor 7:50

2. Pennsbury 7:44

1. Central Bucks West 7:43

 

In the end, CBW gets to keep some legs fresh without running individual events where Sauer and Webb may be looking ahead slightly to their individual events and miss out on gold here. Had to pick CBW.

 

1600:

Final qualifiers: Jax Hoey, Brehm, Kolor, Kravitz, Webb, JVK, Weidner, Barton, Daly, Jo Hoey, Perlman, Sponaugle

The prelims shouldn’t be too hard for anyone and I see those running about 4:24. In the finals, I think Van Kooten, Kolor, and Jax. Hoey are going to try to run away from the field with a fast first 800 since last year’s went so slow; however, I don’t think that they will break the field and that the 800 will be 2:06. Then, the 3rd lap will slow to a 65 and the kickers will play it out over the last 400.

 

8. Barton 4:16

7. Daly 4;16

6. Kolor 4:14

5. Webb 4:13

4. Kravitz 4:12

3. Brehm 4:11

2. Van Kooten 4:10

1. Jax. Hoey 4:10

 

 

800:

Let’s face it. I’m from Carlisle. I love my (former) teammates and I want them to win. And if they win, Cheltenham has to not win. Now John Lewis is the best runner in the field, but I just can’t pick him to win. Sorry, man (but if you win, I hope it’s a state record.)

Qualifers: Sauer, brehm, Graca, Kelly, Lewis, Wisner, McClellan, Bove, Gatchell, Samuels, Eddinger, Seel

I think that someone big is going to drop from the heats, I just don’t know which one so I had to bring them all to the final. Brehm will be on some tired legs here, but he’ll be doing it for the team at this point which I think will carry him around the track. Lewis will also be fighting for a team trophy along with Sauer. 

 

8. Kelly 1:55

7. Brehm 1:54

6. Eddinger 1:54

5. McClellan 1:54

4. Wisner 1:52

3. Sauer 1:52

2. Lewis 1;50

1. Graca 1:49

Caleb Gatchell

4x800 Prelims: -Heat 1: CBW, Abington, Radnor, Bishop Shanahan
​   -Heat 2: Pennridge, Penncrest, Pennsbury, Cedar Crest
​   -Time Q’s: Altoona, Twin Valley, Carlisle, Norwin

I think the top three teams in each heat are pretty much locks. I can’t imagine any scenario in which the three Penn’s fail to make finals, and I think CBW, Abington, and Radnor are all a notch above everyone else in their heat. With Bishop Shanahan, I think you can’t go wrong with a D1 pick. Also, I really like that those teams have been through the whole prelims then finals set up. I think it gives them valuable experience for States. I think Cedar Crest is a team on the verge of a break out. They have a ton of talent, and they’re all fresh for this 4x8. I think that freshness and focus leads to a great weekend for them. Call me crazy, but I think Carlisle will run Wisner in their 4x8. I think they are going all in for the team title, and I’m sure they think that 4x8 can score with Wisner on it. I see 7:53-54 being able to score, and I think they’re capable of that with Wisner anchoring them. Twin Valley is a team a lot like Cedar Crest in that their sole focus is this 4x8, and I think that helps them as well. Altoona and Norwin both had solid showings at districts, so watch for them to grab the last few spots into finals. 

Finals: 1: Pennsbury 2: Pennridge 3: Abington 4: Penncrest 5: Cedar Crest

Pennsbury is the class of this field, and I think they’ll show that. One slight surprise I see is Abington sneaking into third. I think they’ve run really well over the past couple weeks, and it will show. I think Cedar Crest is coming in motivated and ready to roll. A few guys had disappointing individual weekends at District 3, and I think they want to redeem themselves. 

1600 Prelims: -Heat 1: Mike Kolor, Jaxson Hoey, Zach Brehm, Matt Kravitz
​​-Heat 2: JVK, Sam Webb, Jonathon Perlman, Sean Weidner
​​-Time Q’s: Josh Hoey, Ryan Barton, Eric Kennedy, Dylan Gearinger
I don’t see any real surprises coming out of prelims here. I’m a little cautious with Josh Hoey and Barton since their young and have a busy weekend, but I think they’ll be alright in prelims. I think heat 2 is a little up in the air, but Perlman and Weidner will be fresh, so I have to go with them.  Eric Kennedy and Dylan Gearinger are a little bit of a stretch potentially, but I think they’ve showed a lot of talent this year, and they’ll sneak into finals. 

Finals: 1:Mike Kolor 2: Jeff Van Kooten 3: Jaxson Hoey 4: Sam Webb 5: Zach Brehm

Kolor showed some great speed this past weekend with his 800 off the double, and I think that pays off big time this weekend. Jeff Van Kooten has been really good, but I don’t think he quite has the wheels to hang with Kolor in the last 300. I do see him taking 2nd though, as a reward for taking the pace from 800-1300. I think Jaxson Hoey will be running on tired legs, and that will take a bit of sting out of his closing 400, so he’ll settle for 3rd. Same deal with Webb, but I think he’s a touch behind Hoey. I do see Zach Brehm being able to snag 5th, even coming of the 3200. He has shown great ability to double back, and while I can’t see him getting into the top 3, I think 5th is pretty reasonable. 

800 Prelims: Heat 1: Alek Sauer, Zach Brehm, Elias Graca, Ethan Gatchell
​          Heat 2: Dylan Eddinger, John Lewis, Matt Wisner, Stephen McClellan
​          Time Q’s: Khai Samuels, Andre Kelly, Sean McGinnis, Ahmir Gordon

I think Heat 1 will be a little quicker, which will lead to a bunch of little “q’s” coming out of that heat. Other than that, no real surprises. McClellan is on a roll right now, so I like his upside a lot, and I think Khai Samuels starts a big final weekend of his career. 

Finals: 1: John Lewis 2: Elias Graca 3: Alex Sauer 4: Ethan Gatchell 5: Stephen McClellan

The top 3 here are just on a different level than everyone else right now. I think Sauer’s tired legs will do him in though, and he’ll have to settle for 3rd. Up front, I think Lewis and Graca are going to give us a race for the ages. Graca showed he knows how to peak indoors, I think he’ll do it again this weekend. Don’t be surprised to see him sitting right on Lewis’s shoulder even with a fast early pace, and I think Lewis is really going to have to work in the last 100 to repeat from indoors. That being said, I think he will, and I think they will both break the old State record. I really like Ethan in 4th. I think his whole season has been set up for this point, and once he gets through prelims he’s going to be ready to roll. He’s done a lot of leading this year, and I think having the opportunity to get pulled along in a fast race will be great for him. Finally, in a bit of an upset, I think Stephen McClellan continues his roll, and snags 5th, right in front of Samuels, while tired legs cause Brehm and Wisner to falter in the last 200. 

3200: 1: Kevin James 2: Matt McGoey 3: Jake Brophy 4: Paul Power 5: Casey Comber

Kevin James is just a gutsy runner, and I think that finally pays off. He hasn’t run as fast as McGoey or Brophy, but I would argue that helps him as his legs may be just a touch fresher. I also really like his closing speed. I think McGoey does a lot of work up front after the first mile, but just doesn’t have the speed to hold off James. Behind him Brophy also kicks hard, but comes up just short in 3rd. I see the top 3 only being separated by 1-2 seconds. It’s going to be a great finish. I really like Paul Power in 4th. He isn’t afraid, and is due for a great championship race. And finally, a name we all seem to have forgotten, Casey Comber. He hasn’t been talked about enough, but with a 4:14 1600 to go along with his 3200, I think he’ll turn some heads, finishing off a top 5 all under 8:55. 

 Paul Hayes

Quick disclaimer: this is my first time ever sitting down and trying to put predictions down on paper, so this should be interesting, but Jarrett thinks I’m good at this just from some random thoughts that I’ve put into the group chat.

3200: 

5. K James 8:59.99

4. Abert 8:58.91

3. Comber 8:55.35

2. McGoey 8:54.52

1. Brophy 8:53.64

Rationale: Surprise, surprise, Brophy is going to outkick everyone. He has no 4x8 duty, and if he hits his peak like he did during XC, the field (which is roughly the same as XC states) has no chance. McGoey could potentially upset him if he doesn’t have 4x8 duty and the pace is extremely slow, but as my times show, the pace is going to be fairly quick. Beyond the 1-2 picks, predicting this race gets messy. Power and Abert are certainly going to keep the pace honest, especially with James and others there to push when necessary. Comber has suffered Brophy’s kick again and again (and again and again and again and again), so he’s going to try to make a charge later in the race but before the bell lap. Unfortunately I don’t think he can do quite enough to completely drop Brophy and McGoey, but he certainly be the surprise pick to put the field away if he moves at the right time. Behind those top 3, there’s at least 5 other people that could all easily be top 5, so I picked names and times out of a hat for that.

Side note, I bet 5 of these imaginary points that we use to decide the winner on Diestelow being top 8. 

4x800: 

5. Pennridge 7:47.78

4. Cedar Crest 7:47.27

3. Penncrest 7:45.78

2. Pennsbury 7:42.21

1. CB West 7:42.14

Rationale: To be very honest, I don’t know very much about the 4x8, so this is mostly guess-work here. Pennsbury is currently the state leader and looking to defend their title, but they’re also relying heavily on Sauer and Webb, who will have prelims in their legs that could be the difference maker vs a fresher CB West squad that has displayed incredible depth and will have Rock Fortna anchoring. If they’re allowed (I don’t really know the rules for the state meet), I think CB West could take a riskand leave Rock off the prelim team, so that he’s at 100% on Saturday. If CB West puts a lead on Pennsbury’s typically weaker 3rd leg, they could give Rock enough room to be able to (just barely) hold off Alek Sauer, who will have two prelims in his legs. 

1600:  

5. John Daly 4:15.84

4. Zach Brehm** 4:14.63

3. Mike Kolor 4:12.47

2. Jeff Van Kooten 4:10.85

1. Jaxson Hoey 4:10.09

Rationale:

I might be a bit biased here*, but I have to pick Jaxson for the win here. He raced extremely smart at districts, and if he is just as smart, he’s extremely tough to handle in the last 250m. Van Kooten will be sure to be right behind, and the will probably lead the group of himself, Jaxson, and Kolor that try to break away with 600-700m to go. It will certainly be close between Jaxson and JVK coming down the last 100m, but I have to pick Jaxson to edge him out in a close race.

*I grew up going to church with Jaxson and his family. I caught up with them and they couldn’t be happier with the change to DWest. (Also, trying to cover Jaxson during a church football game last year when he was in 1:54/4:15/9:05 shape is at least #5 on my list of ideas that sounded good in my head but were totally stupid.)

** If Brehm decides to pull out of the 32, he is going to win the 1600. His combination of strength, speed, and experience will be unbeatable if he doesn’t have the state’s fastest 3200m race in his legs.

800m: 

5. Matt Wisner 1:52.85

4. Dylan Eddinger 1:52.23

3. Alek Sauer 1:51.89

2. Elias Graca 1:50.15

1. John Lewis 1:48.34

Rationale: Wait, people think John Lewis is going to win the 800 and break the state record? Shocker. But it’s impossible to pick against him. Having been a swimmer trained in the sprints and later moving into the middle distance events, I think I have a slightly better understanding of how Lewis runs this race and what he goes through. His racing strategy is very good, using his easy speed to get out and clear of the crowd, running smooth through the 2nd 200, really pushing the 3rd 200, and then giving everything left at the end. At districts, Lewis might have gone out a bit too fast, and might not have had quite the motivation/adrenaline in him to nab the state record at the end. But I think that with a week of resting down, the atmosphere at states, and the motivation after a .02 second disappointment indoors, there’s no way he doesn’t destroy the record. Behind that, Elias Graca is going to probably scare the 1:50 barrier, and Sauer will likely handle the double well enough to snag a medal.

2015 PIAA States Predictions

Garrett Zatlin

AAA predictions:

Why: Don’t hate me for placing Brehm at fifth, but if the guy is going to triple, I can’t see him doing much better than middle of that top pack. Sauer will be on the double with his 4x800 squad and that’s basically the main reason I’m putting Eddinger in that third spot. Eddinger has grown on me and he has quietly competed hard the past couple of seasons. As for Lewis, he is the easy favorite to win. If he runs the same way he did at districts, Graca won’t be able to hold on for the entire thing. 

800

8. Ethan Gatchell-1:55.79

7. Andre Kelly- 1:55.03

6. Matt Wisner-1:54.44

5. Zach Brehm-1:53.90

4. Alek Sauer-1:53.00

3. Dylan Eddinger- 1:52.87

2. Elias Graca-1:50.12

1. John Lewis- 1:49.36

Why: Even though I’m from the eastern side of the PA, the Pittsburgh area is my favorite and that bias probably shows here with Van Kooten being the winner. Even with my bias, the guy has been one of the best milers from last year to now and a 4:10 last week gives me little reason to doubt JVK as the winner. Hoey has been a winner this season but has yet to break 4:14. A four second difference is pretty huge so I’m giving JVK the nod. Kolor has some solid leg speed but Webb is excellent on the double and has shown to be a great miler during the winter. Brehm will have already had a very fast 3200 in him so he falls to fifth.

1600

8. Ryan Barton-4:19.54

7. John Daly-4:19.13

6. Matt Kravitz-4:18.32

5. Zach Brehm-4:17.69

4. Mike Kolor-4:15.19

3. Sam Webb-4:14.26

2. Jaxson Hoey-4:13.58

1. Jeff Van Kooten-4:12.73

Why: Before you harass me just hear me out. Power has the district one title he is looking to expand on. Comber continues to pursue that he has the ability to beat Brophy. James is pursuing that elusive individual gold. Brehm is looking to be the first runner to win the 800, 1600, and 3200. McGoey and Brophy will look to reinforce that their sub-9’s weren’t flukes with a state gold. All of these are exciting stories that gives a thrill to the idea of one of them winning…and then there is Andrew Marston. The one without a rival to pursue. The one without a reputation to uphold. The one without something to prove. Maybe it’s for that reason that Marston gets the title and shocks the PA track community.   

3200

8. Todd Gunzenhauser-9:10.66

7. Paul Power-9:07.49

6. Kevin James-9:04.08

5. Casey Comber9:03.42

4. Zach Brehm-9:03.24

3. Matt McGoey-9:00.31

2. Jake Brophy-8:58.20

1. Andrew Marston-8:57.40

Why: Pennsbury is too good. They have pursued this relay before so they have the experience. Throw in their two aces, Sauer and Webb and there’s not much reason for them to lose. Penncrest is also known to have historically great 4x8’s and that comes in to play this upcoming Saturday. I also like Radnor mainly because of Andre Kelly’s progression throughout this season. They’ll grab 4th behind a CB West team with great depth. 

4x800

8. LaSalle-7:52.14

7. Abington-7:50.99

6. Pennridge-7:50.95

5. Cedar Crest -7:50.61

4. Radnor-7:49.36

3. CB West-7:47.50

2. Penncrest-7:45.16

1. Pennsbury-7:44.00

AA predictions: I simply don’t know enough to go in depth about these races. I tried my best so pity me here.

800

8. Garrett Sutton

7. Matt Baringer

6. David Fletcher

5. Aaron Morris

4. Amir Gordon

3. Andrew Koryak

2. Julian Degroot-Lutzner

1. Dominic Peretta

1600

8. Leslie Cooper

7. Colten Trimble

6. Nick Sweet

5. Simon Smith

4. Griffin Molino

3. Kyle Shinn

2. Sebastian Curtin

1. Dominic Peretta

3200

8. Brent Leber

7. Sean Hilverding

6. Will Loevner

5. Jack DiCintio

4. Will Kachman

3. Griffin Mackey

2. Griffin Molino

1. Dominic Hockenbury

4x800

8. Masterman

7. Harbor Creek

6. North East

5. South Side

4. Wyomissing

3. Seneca

2. Mnt. Carmel 

1. Mercyhurst Prep

AAA Predictions - Evan Hatton

I’m notoriously optimistic when it comes to these, so the times are definitely quick in here.

800

Heat 1 Autos: Elias Graca, Alek Sauer, Zach Brehm, Ethan Gatchell

Heat 2 Autos: John Lewis, Dylan Eddinger, Stephen McClellan, Matt Wisner

Time Qual: Michael Bove, Khai Samuels, Sean McGinnis, Ahmir Gordon

Finals:

1. John Lewis, Cheltenham - 1:48.57
2. Elias Graca, Fox Chapel - 1:49.41
3. Dylan Eddinger, Boyertown - 1:51.53
4. Alek Sauer, Pennsbury - 1:51.74
5. Matt Wisner, Carlisle - 1:52.97
6. Stephen McClellan, St. Josephs - 1:53.23
7. Ethan Gatchell, Red Lion - 1:54.05
8. Michael Bove, Fox Chapel - 1:54.12

This is a race for second honestly.  Lewis has proven he can run hard all the time and still be strong when it matters (1:49 split...in a prelim).  He is the most consistent 800 runner I have ever seen and I think the state and meet records will belong to him after this weekend.  Elias Graca comes up in second, chasing Lewis much like he did in indoor.  Dylan Eddinger has been coming on strong the past few weeks, dropping some crazy 1600s as well.  He dropped his 800 down to 1:53.5 at D1 last weekend, but I think there’s a ton of potential left.  Alek Sauer will have a hard 800 in him from earlier in the day, but I think he still hits an open PR at 1:51.7.  Wisner had an excellent indoor season, but took a bit of a backseat to Brehm during the outdoor season.  I think Wisner finally has his day and snags himself a top 5 finish.  Stephen McClellan took the D12 800 title in dominating fashion, running away with the race over the last 400.  I think the sophomore has himself a great day and throws his name in the debate for next great PA 800 runner.  Gatchell has made the 800 his main event this spring and has dropped several 1:55 times.  He took 3rd at D3 behind the Carlisle duo of Brehm and Wisner and a big time is in play this weekend.  Michael Bove is my dark horse, gamble pick to medal this weekend.  Bove wasn’t even remotely on my radar going into the WPIAL championship, but he dropped a huge 1:55 to take third behind Graca and Kolor.  He’s my call to snag the final medal spot and continue his hot streak.  Sorry Brehm, I just think it’s going to be too much at this point.

1600

Heat 1 Autos: Jaxson Hoey, Mike Kolor, Zach Brehm, Matt Kravitz

Heat 2 Autos: JVK, Sam Webb, Ryan Barton, Sean Weidner

Time Qual: Joe Espinal, John Daly, Nick Wolk, Will Sponaugle

Finals:

1. Jeff Van Kooten, Pittsburgh CC - 4:09.87
2. Mike Kolor, Seneca Valley - 4:10.19
3. Jaxson Hoey, Downingtown West - 4:11.53
4. Sam Webb, Pennsbury - 4:13.01
5. John Daly, St. Josephs - 4:15.61
6. Zach Brehm, Carlisle - 4:17.12
7. Matt Kravitz, North Pocono - 4:17.24
8. Sean Weidner, Lower Dauphin - 4:17.31

The 16 is going to be an unbelievable race.  I think it is going to come down to another D7 dual with JVK coming out on top once again.  Jaxson Hoey looked really good in his race at D1 and he could definitely steal the show if he is in position.  I have Sam Webb in 4th off of the 4x8 double and I am confident that he can do it.  He’s such a strong runner and has proven so over his incredible career and I think a 1:54/4:13 double is very possible.  John Daly taking fifth and finally living up to his relay credentials.  I think Zach Brehm is in a little too deep at this meet.  If all goes according to plan for him, this will be his 4th hard race of the weekend.  4:17 is by no means nothing to scoff at, but this year you need to be on top of your game and I just can’t bring myself to put him any higher.  Matt Kravitz has a huge day and hits 4:17 as well, alongside Sean Weidner.  

3200

Finals:

1. Matt McGoey, North Allegheny - 8:51.34
2. Jake Brophy, Central Bucks East - 8:51.37
3. Paul Power, Spring Ford - 8:56.20
4. Kevin James, Cardinal O’Hara - 8:58.46
5. Casey Comber, Hatboro Horsham - 8:59.92
6. Zach Brehm, Carlisle - 9:03.14
7. Andrew Marston, Conestoga - 9:04.76
8. Ethan Linderman, Canon-McMillan  - 9:09.24

This is such a hard race to predict.  There are at least 7 guys with the ability to run under 9:00 in this race, that’s unheard of.  This is coming down to the last 400 meters without a doubt, McGoey and Brophy battling the entire way home.  Ultimately, I am throwing my “I Ran At Mt. Lebanon and I Hate North Allegheny” bias out the window, and giving the win to McGoey.  I was amazed by his 3200 at D7 and I think he’s going to prove too much for the rest of these guys.  Brophy is going to give him a race though.  As you can see, I have them separated by .03, is the 3200 going to be the most exciting race of the day?  I think Power and James hang with these guys until the final 400 or so, but just can’t match their speed over the last lap.  They both run under 9 though.  Casey Comber is one of my favorite runners in the state and it is so hard to give him 5th, but the race is just so deep.  Zach Brehm is a tough call in this race as well, he has two races the day before, but he’s been fine with that in the past.  If the race goes out slower (which it won’t, just a heads up), Brehm could surprise and take the win.  Marston is a tough call as well, I want to have all of these guys under 9:00, but I can’t bring myself to be that optimistic.  I ran against Ethan Linderman countless times when I was in high school, and he shows up when it counts.  He has always peaked well in the past, and as I don’t believe their 4x800 will make it to finals, he is going to be hungry.

4x800

Heat 1 Autos: CBWest, Abington, Penn Hills, Radnor

Heat 2 Autos: Pennsbury, Pennridge, Penncrest, Norwin

Time Quals: Cedar Crest, Bishop Shanahan, Penn Wood, Altoona

Finals:

1. Pennsbury - 7:41.19
2. Central Bucks West - 7:44.87
3. Penncrest - 7:46.45
4. Radnor - 7:48.12
5. Abington - 7:49.36
6. Cedar Crest - 7:51.32
7. Penn Hills - 7:52.06
8. Pennridge - 7:52.16

Pennsbury is going to win, plain and simple.  Sauer and Webb are too strong and their other two legs whose names I cannot remember have been excellent the entire year.  CB West is going to give them a run for their money though.  Ultimately though, Sauer will prove to be too much on the anchor and blow the race open in the final 250-300 like he did at districts.  Penncrest has always been fantastic in the 4x800, and Evan Emmanuel appears to be peaking very well.  Radnor has been dropping solid relay times all year and this should be no different.  The duo of Connor Holm and Andre Kelly should bring this team to a great time.  Abington is peaking excellently as a team and they should continue their success at the state level.  Jesse Cruise has stepped into the driver’s seat at Cedar Crest and gives them the strong leg they need to bring home an excellent time.  Sub 7:50 is definitely in play for these guys.  Penn Hills and Pennridge duke it out for the final two medal spots, but Penn Hills gets the edge with up to three guys splitting ~1:55-1:56.