The Stage
It could be a historic weekend for Domenic Perretta. It will begin with an attempt at his 3rd straight 1600m gold medal. In the event’s history (the mile/1600 has been contested at all the championships dating back to the spring of 1931), the list of three time state champions is short. Very short. As in, it’s only Paul Vandegrift. As in, the same Paul Vandegrift who holds the state record of 4:03.22.
On
paper, there’s not much opposition to this quest. In fact, the next 4 seeds
behind Perretta are all from the WPIAL, so Dom just defeated them a week ago
with a fairly comfortable 4:20 effort (Perretta won the state title in 4:13
last season and 4:19 two years ago). So, perhaps it is more likely to be
Perretta versus the clock than Perretta versus the field.
The
race for second, however, should be quite fun. #2 seed Griffin Mackey is the
reigning A XC state champion. #9 seed Cooper Leslie has clocked a variety of
times in the low 4:20s and has an indoor medal from the mile. Both of these
runners will be doubling back for the 16 off the 32 and 4x8 respectively. Also
in the mix, one of the most talented small school sophomores we have seen since
Perretta himself, Winchester Thurston’s Tristan Forsythe, who won the slower
section of the mile indoors and has low 4:20s ability of his own.
Race Analysis: The Prelims (First
4 in each heat, plus next 4 fastest advance to final)
It
was tough picking the finalists for this race. Honestly, this race usually is
one of the trickiest for me to predict. The AA guys do a decent amount of
doubling, whether that is 4x8-16, 32-16 or 16-8, lots of these kids will be
busy on Friday (and they hope Saturday). Plus, I feel like there’s a pretty
decent amount of parity behind a couple big names in this field.
I’ve
got Griffin Mackey, Tristan Forsythe, Hunter Crawley and Sam Lander advancing
through Heat 1 and then Domenic Perretta, Will Kachman, Cooper Leslie and
Jarrett Boyd getting the autos from Heat 2. Then, rounding out the lower case
spots, I have Trend Leonard, Levi Upham, Matt Murray and Alex Sheib. Those 12
guys make up my final.
Just
like I mentioned in the AA 4x800 preview, I like to look down the performance
list for guys that might get a big boost from the jump in competition. There
isn’t always a depth of competition among the small schools and I think you can
never over rate how much of a difference proper competition can make. Of
course, on the flip side, if someone has that extra experience navigating stacked
fields it can be an advantage in its own right.
I’m
nervous about Myers and Lamison doubling off the 4x8 qualifiers earlier in the
day so I shied away from both of them. I really like Sam Lander’s sleeper
status from Cranberry. I thought his cross season was strong and his big win at
D9s was encouraging as well. The last couple qualifying spots are wide open
here so I’m not ruling out a variety of names, but ultimately I think the D3
pair of Alex Sheib and Will Greene seem most plausible for that spot.
I’m
interested to see how Jarrett Boyd does this weekend. He’s shown big talent in
both the 1600 and the 800 and will contest both races at states. I would have
liked to see him only focus on the 800, but he’s a top seed in this event and
it’s lacking a bit of depth so the move makes sense. Shout out to people named
Jarrett.
Race Analysis: The Finals
I
really like some of the runners in this field. I think Leslie has had a monster
season, Forsythe is one of the best sophomores in the state and Hunter Crawley
is an underrated dude with big talent. But this is the Domenic Perretta show. I
think we see something similar to WPIALs where Dom holds back and finishes the
job late, saving some energy for the 800. In terms of raw speed and finishing
ability, Perretta dwarfs the others accomplishments. Realistically, only Leslie
is in the same realm and we are still talking a 5-6 second difference in 800
ability. Plus, Leslie will be on the double from the 4x8, a race that could be
won with a big anchor.
Despite
the likely tired legs, I think Leslie has proven he can double very well. He’s
run a ton of races this season and has set PRs on the triple before. Last year
at states, after finishing 9th in the 3200 with a strong time in the
mid 9:30s, he doubled back for a low 4:20s mark and grabbed a 1600 medal. I
think he can get the silver, especially if he’s smart early and doesn’t get
caught up in a fast early pace (if Perretta tries to set one).
After
those two guys, I like Forsythe. He’s just a sophomore, but he’s got a strong
kick, good strength (his 3200 PR is in the 9:30s I believe) and he’s
experienced now, having earned an indoor state medal and having run the prelims
in this event last year. The extra learning experience should benefit him on
race day.
As
mentioned, I think Crawley can do some damage in this field. Hunter ran in the
1600 here last year, again gaining some prelim experience (he missed qualifying
by one spot last year) and he learned a lot running behind multiple statemedalist Griffin Molino at South Williamsport. He has a chance to carve out a
name for himself in this group and I think he could slide in under 4:20 in the
right race.
With
Mackey and Kachman doubling off a hotly contested 3200 (I’m predicting both
guys to run pretty fast and compete for hardware), two of the top guys in the state
will have a hard time finishing this race strong (this double is extremely
hard). Since I have both of them missing the medal stand, keep an eye for a
sleeper to emerge from the crop of high 4:20/low 4:30 guys.
Predictions
Perretta’s
focus seems to be records. At this point he’s got the titles, he’s confident he
can win more, now he just wants to see his name next to a couple records. The
meet record in the 16 is 4:03.22. That’s one of the most brutal ones out there.
The 8 is 1:51.96. He’s run under that mark on a variety of occasions both
indoors and outdoors in the past 12 months. I think he will put his chips in the
8.
That
could mean a tactical affair here early, bringing lots of guys into the mix and
counting on strong second halves late once Perretta makes his move. Here’s how
I see things shaping out in that type of race.
1. Domenic
Perretta, Beaver Falls 4:16.91
2.
Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston 4:19.293. Cooper Leslie, Camp Hill 4:19.33
4. Hunter Crawley, South Williamsport 4:20.11
5. Matt Murray, Dunmore 4:24.52
6. Jarrett Boyd, Freedom 4:24.96
7. Trent Leonard, North East 4:25.16
8. Griffin Mackey, Sewickley Academy 4:28.04
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