AAA 1600m Preview and Predictions

AAA
The Stage
A lot of years, I get on hear and talk about experience and age and “Senior leadership” and all that fun stuff. I truly believe it and it helps me mold my predictions accordingly. However, it could be vastly overrated. If you look at the last 5 years, between both AA and AAA, there have been 7 underclassmen 1600 state champs compared to just 3 senior winners. In AAA, those underclassmen successfully defending their titles a grand total of 0 times (and it won’t happen this year with Jaxson in the 800) making way for the next generation of milers to come along.

This year, the narrative will face another significant test. Sophomore Josh Hoey, the reigning Penn Relays state champ and indoor runner up, will battle Seneca Valley Senior and #1 seed Mike Kolor for the right to wear state gold. Kolor, who admitted to having more than his fair share of silver medals from WPIALs, finally cracked the code this past weekend with a double gold performance in the 16 and the 8. He’s decided to put all his eggs into this race in an attempt at continuing his Au streak. Meanwhile, Josh Hoey will look to keep the state title in the family after cruising through the district one championship. Kolor was 4^th in last year’s final and Josh was 7^th as a frosh, the first freshman medalist since then freshman class record holder Craig Miller (fun fact, as a soph the next season, Miller won state gold in a then meet record of 4:09.33).

If Hoey does win, he’ll join a very exclusive list of sophomore state champions in the distance events. Since 1980, I’ve got the sophomore state champion list as simply Mike Connelly (3200 1981), Paul Vandegrift (1600 1985), Carlos Gibbs (3200 1998), Danny Coval (3200 1998), Sam Bair (1600 2001), Craig Miller (1600 2004), Tom Mallon (800 2008), Zach Brehm (800 2013), Dominic Hockenbury (3200 2014) and Domenic Perretta (1600, 800 2014).

I mean look at that list! That’s a loaded list. We are talking about seven state record holders (at some point or another), another guy who sat less than a tenth of a second away from getting there (Perretta this year indoors) and potential for at least one more (I’m including state meet records and Hock and Dom are both gunning for theirs this weekend).

Although the hype will center around the possibility of yet another sophomore state champion or the first WPIAL AAA 1600 champ since Sam Bair in 2002 (who set the state meet record before the aforementioned Craig Miller did when he ran 4:09.61), State College’s Alex Milligan (5^th last year in 4:17.08) will also look to contend for the title and score valuable points for the Little Lions.

Race Analysis: The Prelims (First 4 in each heat, plus next 4 fastest advance to finals)

There are plenty of names that deserve some love here, but I’ll try to be efficient. Out of Heat 1, I have Josh Hoey, Alex Milligan, Jacob Stupak and Brandon Hontz getting the auto Qs to the final. In Heat 2, I’ve got Mike Kolor, Liam Galligan, Liam Conway and Brody Beieler as my autos. That leaves Henry Sappey, Eric Kennedy, Sam Signor and Noah Beveridge as my last four time qualifiers.

A couple notes on the guys I left out. I think Heat 2 will be a pretty fast heat, so that’s where I see most of the qualifiers coming from (honestly, it could be all the qualifiers). Heat 1 seems to be a bit shallower which is good news for the top guys in that section. I think Falasco has a strong shot at advancing, possibly over someone like Sappey who I’m not as confident in terms of sprinting ability. But ultimately, I decided to give Sappey the edge because of his state championship history and the extra motivation he will have from his team’s needs. It could potentially end up with a flip between Sappey and Barton, as the West junior picked up valuable state prelim experience last year.

The Noah Beveridge pick is definitely bold, but I really like the kid’s heart. He ran out of the slow heat at WPIALs and still clocked a 4:23 to qualify for states. He’s just a sophomore, but he’s had some fantastic moments the last two years and I’m banking on him rising to the occasion with extra competition at states.

In Heat 1, I could see Sean Sullivan from the PCL getting involved. Sullivan was a state medalist indoors and has a strong kick with his 1:55 speed. Plus he’s made a state final before, last year in the 800. If things click he could finish at the head of the Hontz-Signor pack I see rounding out the final spot from this heat. Abrahams and Alpaugh both are contenders to sneak in out of this heat as well. I especially like the senior Alpaugh in this spot, although I’ve left him out by a nose.

Race Analysis: The Finals

The big question for me is, will Kolor take things out hard from the gun? Or will he let things turn tactical? I definitely think Kolor has great speed and a strong kick, but he’s yet to really breakthrough in a kickers race. I think he’s a gutsy strong runner who, if he pushes the pace and has a smooth uninterrupted path, will feel much more comfortable and have a legit chance at stealing this. Kolor ran 4:13 at WPIALs, winning by about 4 seconds and has run 4:10-4:12 type marks multiple times as junior. Josh Hoey, while very strong and accomplished, has only run in the 4:10-4:12 range once (his recent PR race at the Penn Relays).

The other advantage to getting out hard is that you put big pressure on Alex Milligan. I don’t see Milligan going out hard on the double for this race (last year he went to the back early and picked off people the second half) and he will be careful not to blow up and cost the team valuable points. If the race goes out in 2:05-2:06, I think he won’t follow and the top two should be able to battle one on one. To be fair, Milligan is a very strong doubler. Last year, he ran 5 straight PRs between the 4x8, 16 and 4x4 over the course of two days.

On the flip side, the signature Hoey move seems to be making a move down the backstretch with 300 to go. If Kolor is ready for the move, can cover it well and then make a strong rally over the last 50 meters, he might be able to steal it. VanKooten came very close to coming back and nipping Jaxson at the line last year, so maybe we see a repeat.

I like Stupak as a sleeper here, assuming he doesn’t have any serious 4x8 duties. He ran 4:19 in the state final last year and has come up clutch in the team’s most important races during his junior and senior seasons. This past fall he uncorked a sub 16 mark at Hershey that helped NA cement a silver medal performance as a team. He ran 4:18 last week on the double from NA’s victory in the 4x8 and I’m banking on him taking it up another notch with fresh legs and a well-timed peak.

The Liams for District One should be fun to watch as well. Both will be in their first state prelims and, despite their overwhelming talent, could struggle on Friday and not even make it to Saturday. There’s always a big name or two that goes out, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed it’s not either of these guys. Remember, Conway ran 4:15 and 1:54 this year, he’s got serious wheels as just a sophomore. And Galligan threw down a monster kick indoors in the mile, taking home his second state medal of the past two state championships.

Beiler and Signor are going to double with the 3200 which I think hurts both their chances in this event pretty seriously. I love both of them as milers and each has had a terrific season (Signor is really coming on strong at the perfect time), but I don’t see them as real factors on tired legs. That opens the door for Sappey and Hontz (or whoever slips into the finals in their spot) to get on the podium. Or maybe Eric Kennedy who has experience at states and a ton of talent. He was second at WPIALs and comes from a strong line of Kennedys. And now I’m not talking about John.

Predictions

I think Kolor has a great shot in this race and I’m glad he scratched the 800 to focus on it. However, Josh Hoey just seems to be hitting another level. It’s not every day that PA gets a Penn Relays champion in the mile (and no that’s not because Penn Relays only comes once a year … ok it technically is, but that’s not my point) and this sophomore is no ordinary sophomore. In many ways, he’s the best young star we’ve had since Craig Miller (I’ve made those comparisons a decent amount) and I think he will keep state gold in the family for at least another year, making a strong move down the backstretch and holding it through the finish.

My dream scenario is this race gets out in something like 2:04-2:05 and we see an assault on the state record. It’s probably more likely that it ends up being another 2:10-2:01 race for the millionth time (it’s not like Kolor doesn’t have a monster kick and 1:53 speed of his own) which can still be exciting certainly, but not exactly my dream scenario.

1. Josh Hoey 4:11.59

2. Mike Kolor 4:11.96
3. Jacob Stupak 4:15.43
4. Alex Milligan 4:16.88
5. Liam Galligan 4:16.95
6. Brandon Hontz 4:17.84
7. Eric Kennedy 4:17.96
8. Liam Conway 4:18.01