AA
The Stage
It’s
rare that a state championship race doesn’t have a clear favorite. If it
doesn’t have a clear favorite, it probably has a couple guys/teams who can win
it and then the rest have little to no shot. But in the AA 4x800 this year,
this thing is wide open.
This
past weekend, the top two seeds in the state staked their claim to the throne
as Seneca and Harbor Creek continued their epic back and forth battle at the
District 10 championships. Seneca held off a late charge from HC (and a
reported 1:52.7 anchor leg from Dan Kuhn) and the two schools became the first
teams under 8 minutes in AA. However, both teams failed to qualify for the
state finals in 2015 despite having two of the top overall seeds on paper
(Seneca had run 8:05 at districts, Harbor Creek 8:10 but each ran 8:25 at Shipp).
So they have some demons to exercise on race day.
Meanwhile,
the defending champions from Wyomissing entered the district 3 championships
with a strong 8:01 time and 3 veteran pieces ready to go back to back. However,
Wyomissing was defeated by A XC state champs Camp Hill who ran a season’s best
8:05.05 for a big 9 second victory. Their anchor leg, Cooper Leslie, scratched
the 3200 so that he could be fresh for the 4x8, hoping to lead his school to
the state title.
Avonworth
ran 8:03 for a big win in the incredibly deep WPIAL and Lewisburg added an 8:02
victory at the late D4 championships over Warrior Run (8:05). Then you also have the 2nd, 3rd,
4th, 6th and 8th place finishers from the 2015
state championship back in the mix including district champions Lakeland and
Masterman.
Race Anlaysis: The Prelims
This
will be a moment of redemption for Harbor Creek and Seneca. They enter as the
top schools in each of their respective heats after not qualifying last year. I
think both will qualify smoothly, but it’s something to keep an eye on. I’ve
got Harbor Creek, Lewisburg, Camp Hill and Wyomissing taking big Qs from Heat 1
while Seneca, Avonworth, Warror Run and Lakeland get out of Heat 2. That leaves
my 4 fastest losers as Beaver, Lower Moreland, Masterman and Marian Catholic. I
went back and forth with Freeport and Trinity as well to potentially swap in
for Lower Moreland.
In AA especially,
there’s so much variability with the small schools that haven’t ever faced the
right competition. That’s why I lean towards an unknown commodity with a strong
anchor like Marian Catholic or Masterman over a more established WPIAL team
that has been racing and getting fast times all year. The king of this is
Lakeland who always shows up in these big moments. They don’t have Morgan and
Mark Arzie this year, two monsters, but they still have a strong group with
good speed (they won the 4x4 last year and kept around a pretty nice core).
Something
to keep in mind, Bedford snuck in and qualified last year out of one of the
heats in a surprise turn. They may do that again considering they have Will
Kachman and Zane Baker who are both studs. However, they may save those guys
for individuals. Hard to say.
Race Analysis: The Finals
This
race is just so tough to call. As much as I love Seneca and Harbor Creek’s
rivalry and dynamic, I’m not 100% sold on either squad. Seneca is still just 4 juniors so they still seem a little
vulnerable to me. Harbor Creek has some young freshman and sophomores in their
core as well I believe. However, these two squads have faced either other a
bunch, know each other’s strengths and weaknesses and, just like CV and Chambersburg in AAA a few years back,
they bring out the best in one another. I can definitely see that translating
to the state final.
I’m
still getting over the shock of the reported Dan Kuhn 1:52.7 split, courtesy of Phil Grove’s interview onPenntrack. That’s one heck of a time and a dangerous anchor weapon. If he
can match that at states (he floated out the idea of a sub 1:50 mark which is
quite bold, but I like the confidence), the team just has to keep him close and
he will be able to fly through the line.
Camp
Hill has definitely been strong this year and has their own wild card on anchor.
Cooper Leslie once ran 1:56 from scratch on the triple, so it’s not outlandish
to think a 1:53-54 split is in play on the right day. They have proven
themselves with a team title in XC, something their rivals couldn’t pull off,
and they ran an 8:05 in slightly sub optimal conditions at Districts (some
might say more than slightly sub optimal).
Wyomissing
is still the defending state champs. They looked vulnerable at districts, but
defending champs don’t just go quietly into the night. They lost their best guy
in Kyle Shinn, but Joe Cullen has stepped quickly into his shoes and could run
a 1:56ish or faster split on race day.
Honestly,
it seems like most teams, if not all teams, have an anchor they can really brag
about. The question is going to be, which team’s other legs will step up? This
is a four person relay race, not an individual battle to the line. I can’t pin
point who that team is going to be, but I’ll take a wild guess below. This is
going to be one heck of a race.
Predictions
Ugh,
this is a mess. I’m going to be honest, I’m pretty much just guessing. You can
create a number of permutations of this group and I wouldn’t be upset with
probably half of them. The best bet might be to stick it in a random number
generator and see what you get.
But in
all seriousness, I do think Kuhn and Harbor Creek pull this one out. I like the
fact that HC and Seneca have traded off each week and now it’s Harbor Creek’s
turn to be champs. Let’s see if it actually works that way this weekend.
1.
Harbor
Creek 7:55.99
2.
Camp
Hill 7:58.74
3.
Seneca
7:59.20
4.
Wyomissing
7:59.95
5.
Lewisburg
7:59.98
6.
Lakeland
8:03.71
7.
Avonworth
8:03.76
8.
Beaver
8:05.18
No comments:
Post a Comment