AAA 3200m Preview and Predictions

AAA

The Stage

A year ago, the AAA 3200m was perhaps the greatest it’s ever been. After Ross Wilson and Tony Russell battled to a state meet record in the event, Zach Brehm topped a field of the greatest 8 runners ever to assemble for a 3200 in PA history. By PR, the field included 6 sub 9 minute runners, a 9 flat guy and a 9:01 guy.

Finishing 9^th in that field, just outside the now mythical top 8 was Nathan Henderson of JP McCaskey. When the dust finally settles on his remarkable career, he too may belong in the sub 9 club, but for now, he’s still looking for his first outdoor state medal. Henderson pulled off the victory at the D3 championships, clocking a 9:20 to defeat Zach Lefever of Ephrata. By seed, he’s #10 on the performance list. But to those who have been following the sport closely, Henderson might be the favorite for state gold on Saturday. He was the top PA finisher at the Penn Relays in 8:24 and his been essentially unbeatable against D3 competition in 2015-2016.

What Henderson is to District 3, Peters Township’s Nick Wolk has been to District 7. Despite everyone’s best shot, Wolk has survived all the WPIAL attacks this season and, when fresh, he’s never been defeated by a fellow westerner. And that’s saying something as the best district this year for the 2 mile was likely the 7.

And then, of course, there’s Jake Brophy. The 2x cross country state champion, reigning indoor 3k champ and 8:57 man has been surprisingly quiet in 2016. He finished fairly far back of Henderson at the Penn Relays and skipped the Henderson Invitational (no relation). But Brophy has turned the corner as of late, setting a meet record at his league championships and defeating a very deep group at district 1. He’s still the most experience, most accomplished and (by PR) the fastest PA distance runner we’ve got.

Etrain’s Classic Tangents

Now please allow me a brief moment where I lose the more professional tone and start ranting about things. First of all, shout out to district 1 for proving me very, very, very wrong in this event. I predicted that we wouldn’t send 8guys from our district to states (and even speculated D1 could end up with just5), but instead District 1 finished with a mammoth 12 guys under the SQS. And 9^th place was 9:22.56, a time that would have won every district outside the big 3 (1, 3, and 7). So congrats to those guys, even those who didn’t qualify, on a job well done.

Second, I have to say that, although I understand the maximum of 8 rule per district, I think that it’s a killer to these district 1 kids. They need to put this maximum so the field sizes aren’t absurd at states (the 3200 is already a massive field to be honest). I also get that if you aren’t in the top 8 in your district, it’s hard to argue that you would be in the top 8 (i.e. the medals) at states (although you could make those arguments for kids every once in a while). But I will say that it’s kind of insulting to a district one kid like, say Rusty Kujdych, who posted a crazy fast 9:22.56, to not only have to watch kids in slower districts get in with auto quals (I’m absolutely 100% behind the auto system and don’t want to make changes to that piece) and then to also see guys in other districts get in with 9:30-9:31 type times.

Bottom line, we may need to make the state qualifying times harder. They’ve been the same exact times since I was in high school (too long ago) and the state has definitely gotten faster and deeper. If they don’t want to change the times, they gotta revisit this 8 max rule. It kills me to see all these kids have the state qualifying time and not get in.

And for the record, I’ve never seen this happen anywhere outside of District 1 (also the only district where people have to run trials and finals). Maybe we should split up District 1? Please?

But don’t worry, District 3 is apparently bigger by size than District 1 and now gets 6 automatic spots compared to District 1’s 5 (not that it matters much as it seems 90% of the time D1 is sending 8 per event). Curious if they will ever end up with prelims or over 8 guys hitting the SQS.

Sorry to rant. If there are counterarguments to the above, I’d be curious to here. Always looking for alternative solutions or feedback to help shape my thinking properly. But anyway … let’s get back to business.

Race Analysis

While setting the stage, I mentioned the 3 big names: Nate Henderson, Nick Wolk and Jake Brophy. With all due respect to the rest of the field, if anyone outside this group wins I’ll be very surprised. Those guys have been phenomenal all season. Each has run at least 4:15 for 1600 and each has dominated their respective district since cross country. I got to think the champion comes from that group. Not trying to dwell on the negatives here are but there are a few small things that I will mention.

One concern regarding Henderson: he didn’t contest the 1600 at districts and was allegedly seen limping on his cool down. Hopefully, there are no lingering injuries that will hinder his performance on race day.

One concern regarding Brophy: his 4x800m team will be featured at states. He talkedindoors about how important his teammates and their shared successes are and, in my opinion, it’s clear he tries to do expend as little energy as possible (while still winning) so he can double back for the relays. That proved to be a dangerous game at indoor states, but he still pulled it out with a blistering finishing kick.

I actually don’t have a real concern regarding Wolk other than the fact that he’s not quite as experienced at the state level as the other two are. But honestly, by this point he’s competed at a couple XC state champs, an indoor state champ and an outdoor state champ (in the 1600) so he’s got enough in my book that’s it not a big weakness.

Brophy’s kick is the best of the group and he’s got amazing strength on his resume as well. Henderson lately has proven he’s got an extra gear and a lot of guts to make things interesting when the race is at it’s hardest. I haven’t seen Wolk race enough to speak to his style, but I think he’s got a nice finish ability as well, considering he was a miler before he transitioned up in distance. Ultimately, although Henderson’s speed has really developed, I think he might have to breakaway before 200 to go to have any real shot at gold.

As much as I love the abilities of these top three guys, the most interesting name in this field is probably Matt Kravitz of North Pocono. Kravitz has posted a pair of sub 9:20 marks this year, both coming in races he has dominated. In addition, Kravitz has run 4:17 (in another big win) and has a medal in the 1600 from last outdoors. He has the tools to me to pull off a huge surprise. We still don’t this kids top end ability because he’s been so untested. Remember, last year Colin Abert entered states with a PR in the high 9 teens but limited chances at a fast time. Then, he ran 8:56 at states for a massive PR and nearly stole the state gold. I’m not sure Kravitz is on Abert’s level but there are a ton of similarities (both top finishers at Paul Short for PA, both ran medal worthy times in AAA 1600 the year before, both from smaller districts). I can talk myself into it.

It’s worth noting that Abert’s former teammate and running mate Kevin Lapsansky did win the district championship at 3200 in 9:31 and then added a 4:22 silver medal performance in the 16 at District 11. The Easton senior is rounding into peak form at the exact right time.

The always dangerous District 12 will have a couple top talents representing them as both Frank Livolsi and Rob Morro are highly accomplished dudes. Livolsi has run 9:25 this year and Morro has also broken 9:30 (was also a state qualifier in 2015). They’ve both taken different roads to get here. Morro has been one of O’Hara’s top runners for the past two seasons, including a pair of XC individual medals. Meanwhile, Livolsi was battling just to stay in the top 5 on LaSalle’s deep roster before turning on the jets this spring. He closed in about 61 seconds over the final lap at districts to win the title over Morro and continue a fantastic hot streak in this event.

Lastly, don’t sleep on the District 4 boys. The results that came flying in late Sunday, showed a double gold for Brody Beiler of Selinsgrove, who won the 3200 in 9:29 over sophomore Isaac Davis. Beiler, who’s primarily excelled in the 1600 this season, has some serious upside jumping in against this level of competition.

Perhaps the most interesting story line in this one, beyond simply who will win gold, is which district will win? District 3 has 6 competitors while Districts 1 and 7 will each have 8 so you could score this thing XC style and decide who has been best this year. Considering I’ve gone on record as saying “WPIAL > D1”, this would be a big chance for D1 to flip the script on that dialogue. They will start in a hole so to speak as District 7 holds 4 of the top seeds and 5 of the top 8, none of which are Mount Lebanon’s Todd Gunzenhauser (9:25 at districts, 17^th seed) who I see as a massive sleeper on race day.

While the WPIAL has been established already as a quick district with proven talent, D1 completely turned over the roster so to speak on race day. PJ Murray, Will Griffen, Rob Moser, Brian Mass and Matt D’Aquila are all relatively new to this top tier group. None have ever finished in the top 50 at XC states (as opposed to the WPIAL who’s qualifiers were all in the top 52ish including 6 in the top 26). They all dropped fairly substantial PRs to qualify (as did Kent Hall of Unionville and even Joe Maguire clipped a solid 3 seconds of) and they will all compete in their first outdoor state meet. So how will they handle the big stage?

District 3’s core behind Henderson is led by Zach Lefever of Ephrata who has been very strong in his #2 role all year, dating back to cross. Zach Seiger is experienced, competing in his 3^rd straight state championship 3200 (after 3 straight XC qualifiers) and East Pennsboro’s Sam Signor has run sub 4:20 multiple times for 1600, giving him a nice speed component to pair with his sub 9:30 seed time.

Race Predictions

I think the 3200 is a seniors event so, although juniors have won before (most notably Ethan Martin in 2013) I think the gold will be handed to either Wolk or Brophy. I love Wolk’s work this season and feel he’s poised for a huge day, but Brophy is a proven champion with a very distringuished resume and a big kick. Although he was just 8^th last season at states, I think CB East retooled Jake’s schedule/training a bit to get him ready to peak at states rather than Henderson. I feel that ultimately will result in a win for Jake.

I’m hoping Kravitz makes this thing interesting as well. He could definitely surprise. But it’s also possible that he’s not ready to finally race this top competition and his body won’t be adjusted the same way the others will. I doubt that will happen, but it’s not impossible.

As mentioned, Todd Gunzenhuaser is my sleeper. He had a big race here last year and also came through in the clutch for XC states. I’m curious if he was holding back at all at WPIALs or maybe he just had an off day. Either way, I think it provides an extra spark on race day.

Kent Hall’s got the Unionville “U” on his jersey which has helped a lot in the past. The Ville has posted 3 state champs in this event since 2006. Hall just ran a strong PR for second to Brophy at Districts and I’m sure we all remember his mammoth breakthrough at NXN during cross.

The WPIAL has been so strong all year, I’d be surprised to see just one or two guys in the medals. Marc Migliozzi has had a fantastic season, dating back to XC and North Allegheny has a nice history of producing state medalists (which also bodes well for Blechman). Jake Susalla had a very impressive state XC meet and is turning it on at the right time and Westrick, Conboy and Provenzo are no joke. That being said, I might lean away from the WPIAL guys on this one. If nothing else, because I can’t pick who exactly I’m expecting to have the breakthrough.

1.      Jake Brophy, CB East 9:04.16

2.      Nick Wolk, Peters Township 9:04.98

3.      Matt Kravitz, North Pocono 9:05.75

4.      Nate Henderson, JP McCaskey 9:05.96

5.      Todd Guzenhauser, Mt Lebanon 9:10.59

6.      Kent Hall, Unionville 9:13.64

7.      Joe Maguire, CR South 9:15.67

8.      Rob Morro, Cardinal O’Hara 9:17.22