By: Garrett Zatlin
It was a pretty good weekend to be a track and field fan. PA State Championships, Pre Classic, and of course NCAA Regionals gave me plenty to watch. Yet, despite the great variety of track that kept me entertained, myself and the rest of writers were not able to out-predict Flotrack who won the Regionals Prediction Contest with 79 correct picks (out of 120). Check the link below to see the scoring breakdown!
While the prediction contest may not have gone the way I wanted it to, there is still plenty to talk about. Also keep in mind that I'll be talking about PA Alumni and how they did in a post (maybe tomorrow or Tuesday).
EAST REGION
800
For the most part, the favorites in the race were able to advance and qualify for NCAA's. Sampson Laari (Mid. Tenn. State) was a nice surprise to make the cut. He will join his teammate Eliud Rutto at NCAA's.
Holland Sherrer (Mississippi) was another name that I should've paid more attention to. Sherrer qualified for NCAA's last year and did so again this past weekend. Clearly, that experience paid off for him.
Of course, there were also plenty of big names that did NOT make it. Blair Henderson (LSU) and Jacopo Lahbi (Alabama) were two runners that had been pumping out solid times all season, but failed to make it to nationals. Other popular misses were Ned Willig, Myles Marshall, Drew Piazza, and Jake Burton. Of those four, only Burton made the finals (but ended up five spots out from the cut).
Yet, the biggest miss of all had to be Andres Arroyo (Florida). For the past year, Arroyo has failed to run well at a championship meet. He has dominated the regular season, but can't seem to put it together at nationals. His failure to even make NCAA's this season just further solidifies the idea that he can't perform when it counts. A bit harsh, but true.
1500
It seems like the decision to run the 1500 instead of the 800 was a good idea for Kidder and Murphy as both of them finished as the top two qualifiers. Murphy was the top qualifier in both the prelims and finals and looked very good in both races.
With most of the favorites getting in, there were others who were on the line that either made it, or just missed. The biggest miss has to be Ahmed Bile who has been known as one of the biggest miler threats in the nation throughout his career. Unfortunately, Bile never seemed quite right after his indoor nationals showing and has now missed NCAA's for outdoor. Graham Crawford and Julian Oakley were also two big names that were left off the qualifying list. A faster heat with guys full of kicks pushed Crawford and Oakley out enough to miss the cut. Penn State's Robby Creese will also end his collegiate running career early as he did not even make the finals.
Other top names like Joel Hubbard and Garrett O'Toole just simply had bad days and finished as the bottom two names in the finals. I can't remember the last time a sub 3:40 1500 runner missed NCAA's (O'Toole). He is still just a sophomore, so the lack of experience on the big stage is a bit understandable.
There weren't too many surprises, but David Timlin (Indiana State) and Ben Malone (Villanova) were definitely two guys who weren't picked to advance. They've developed some really solid leg speed and it showed in a final that came down to a kick.
3000 Steeplechase
There were very few surprises here as the region full of top-tier talent pushed their best guys through. Iona junior Brandon Allen was one of the only guys not expected to make the cut before clocking an 8:42.
As for the big names who didn't make it, Stuart Robertson and Nick Tuck ended the day with a DNF next to their name. I'd be curious to hear what happened there. However, it was Meron Simon that was probably the biggest surprise of all. The 8:39 man ended up two spots out from making NCAA's.
5000
The 5k was very difficult to gage because so many of these guys had already qualified in something else beforehand (the 1500, steeplechase, or 10k). There were a lot of cuts or guys who simply just didn't push it knowing that they were already into NCAA's.
Both Luis Vargas and Graham Crawford did not even get on the line while guys like Henry Wynne and Neil Gourley hung back and did what was most likely a workout to end their weekend at regionals. Even more disappointing was seeing Ben Rainero end his season with a DNF. He was picked by a lot of the writers to advance to NCAA's, but couldn't cross the line.
Although those guys didn't make it, I have to credit where credit is due. Not a lot of guys were sure that James Dwyer was for real (including myself). Clemson isn't typically known for their distance running, so to see Dwyer grab the final spot to NCAA's is a great step forward for that program.
The small(er) school programs didn't come to fool around either. Campbell qualified their duo of Terer and Kipkoech while Flynn (George Mason) and Guillorel (Samford) proved that they could run on the big stage (both of them qualified for NCAA's).
10,000
Out of all 10 distance events this weekend, this was by far the hardest event to predict. A lot of guys were on the line of making it and it could've gone either way.
Philo Germano and George Parsons reminded everyone why Syracuse and NC State were so successful this past XC season by grabbing the last two spots to NCAA's. Lawrence Kipkoech and Amon Terer were able to gather qualifying marks before they would later qualify in the 5k as well.
However, the biggest surprise was is for the man who DIDN'T make it. 10k stud Matt McClintock failed to make NCAA's with a 14th place finish. In a race that favored kickers, McClintock couldn't cover the moves and didn't have the speed to keep up over the final 2000 meters. He was one of the very few 10k picks that everyone had chosen to advance.
Other notable misses were Ernest Kibet, Dan Lennon, Brian Masterson, and Wes Gallagher.
WEST REGION
800
With inclement weather knocking out day one of trials completely, the 800 skipped over the prelims and went straight to the finals with each heat allowing 1 automatic qualifier and the next 6 fastest times qualifying for NCAA's.
The system certainly wasn't perfect as a lot of big names missed out. Favorites such as Goaner Deng, Robert Ford, Carlton Orange, Grant Grosvenor, and Collins Kibet all missed out on NCAA's. Had there been two rounds, I'm not so sure that all of those guys would have missed the cut.
While plenty of the big names cruised their way into the final, it was the lesser-known names that were able to get into NCAA's thanks to the changed qualifying system. Both Robert Uhr (Texas) and Mitch Hechsel (Minnesota) were able to qualify out of their somewhat weaker heats. Both of these guys are juniors, so the experience on the big stage will bode well for them next year.
The younger guys also seemed to prosper with the new qualifying system. Freshman Brian Bell (Houston) will join sophomores Clay Lambourne (Utah State) and Carter Lilly (Iowa) in Eugene. The youth of this 800 class continues to impress me.
1500
Out of all the races this weekend, it was the west 1500 that really shocked me with a lot of big names missing the cut, and many lesser-known guys having an impact.
Some of the qualifiers like Yorks and the Oregon trio weren't too surprising. However, it was two freshmen and three juniors that really came out of nowhere to get a spot at the big dance.
Alex Rogers (Teaxas) and Josh Kerr (New Mexico) both qualified despite only being freshmen. While many of my fellow writers were sold on Kerr, I questioned his inexperience at a championship meet. Kerr proved me wrong by throwing down a 3:43 and grabbing an auto spot to nationals.
Juniors Matt Dorsey (Air Force), Andy Trouard (NAU), and Chase Horrocks (BYU) took me by surprise when I was looking through the results. None of those three were favored to make NCAA's or really even be close. In fact, none of the writers (or Flotrack) picked any of those three to make NCAA's.
The dramatic overhaul of new comers left out some pretty big names such as Josh Thompson, Jack Bruce, Nick Harris, Zach Perrin, Will Crocker, and anyone who wore Stanford singlet. With so many experienced milers and strong kickers missing the cut, the race at NCAA's should be very interesting.
3000 Steeplechase
Unlike the 1500, the steeplechase didn't provide too many surprising results.
Benard Keter (Texas Tech) really impressed me with his win. Keter dominated the competition on the last lap and looked effortless doing so. I'll keep that in mind when making my predictions...
The only true surprise of all the qualifiers was freshman Bailey Roth out of Arizona. The freshman got an automatic qualifying spot in a very deep third heat. I don't typically like to pick younger guys to medal at NCAA's, but after proving he can handle the big stage, I may have to reconsider my self-imposed rules.
It was a bit surprising to see guys like Connor Winter, Colby Wilson, Cale Wallace, and Trac Norris not make the cut. Winter and Walllace were pretty close, but guys like Wilson and Norris were towards the bottom of the results (Norris was actually last).
It still puzzles me as to why Wallace didn't go after the 1500 with a 3:40 PR, and I'm sure he's probably wondering the same thing right now.
5000
The field was just too good to allow many surprises here. Cheserek and Kincaid led their respective heats and brought along some of the best names in the west region.
Vegard Oelstad (OKST) and Rory Linkletter (BYU) were the only ones who made the cut when they weren't favored to do so.
Unfortunately for Colorado, it wasn't their best event. Morgan Pearson did qualify, but five other Buffalo's failed to make the cut. To add injury to insult, John Dressel was the first man out, only 1 second off the cut.
Notable names that chose to not toe the line were Jack Bruce, Futsum Zienasellassie, Lane Werley, and Reid Buchanan. Bruce deciding not to race the 5000 after he failed to make the 1500 may indicate a possible injury (but that's just speculation).
10,000
The 10k turned out to be a pretty wide open race, with only a handful of favorites in the field. Unexpected qualifiers like Ryan Rutherford (Illinois State), Reed Fischer (Drake), and Charles Mathenge (S.F. Austin) upset sub-29 minute runners like Evan Landes (Kansas), Timo Goehler (Portland), and Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas).
Brian Barraza (Houston) was a favorite to make it, but finished in the unfortunate 13th place (first man out spot) and ended his season earlier than he would've liked.
Barraza's decision to not enter the 5k is still very strange to me. The 10k (his preferred event) would've been run before the 5k and he would've had a full day to recover. Yes, his chances of qualifying for nationals were higher in the 10k, but why would you bet your entire season on just one race when you can always have a backup plan? I'm still trying to make sense of that.
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