The Stage
Domenic Perretta has won the past two state championships. It hasn’t really been all that close if I’m being honest. And yet Dom has still crossed the line angrily the past two seasons when his final race of the weekend was in the books. Don’t believe me? Look at the picture on the front of Penntrack’s website. That’s not a celebration from DP, that’s a tantrum. The guy expects the most out of himself each and every race and the fact that the AA 800m State Meet Record still says “Paul Vandegrift” next to it drives him up a wall.
Although
Perretta will certainly have the record in mind this weekend, he will also need
to pay careful attention to his competition. This is perhaps the best field of
talent ever assembled to challenge Domenic and may provide that extra spark he
needs to get over the hump. Or perhaps, take advantage of his tired legs and
pull the upset.
First,
there was David Fletcher, who flexed his muscles at Bucknell, clocking a
1:53.30. Then there was Brookville’s Ryan Thrush, who won the Baldwin
Invitational over a loaded field in a time of 1:52.76. Then Kamil Jihad, just a
week after he defeated the top 2 seeds in AAA at PCLs, negative split a 1:55 800
at District 12s. And finally, Harbor Creek’s Dan Kuhn split a 1:52.7 at the
District 10 championships on Sunday, following it up with a blistering 1:55.58
gold medal.
So,
are we in for a record? Or an upset?
Race Analysis: The Prelims (First
4 in each heat, plus next 4 fastest times advance to the finals)
Here’s
my projected final: From Heat 1, I see Dan Kuhn, Kamil Jihad, Aaron Morris, and
Mike Sheptuk getting the auto qualifiers. Then, in Heat 2, I have Domenic
Perretta, David Fletcher, Joe Previdi and Ryan Thrush moving on. Rounding out
my final will be the four fastest losers who I’m guessing are Tyler Lesser,
Robert Reichenbaugh, Ben Heim and Dominic Mussoline.
Picking
someone for the last spot was tricky. I think Matt Geisler from Trinity could
be a sleeper and, even on the double from the 16, I could Jarrett Boyd being a factor
for a qualifying spot. Even the District 2 guys are nice sleepers in Collin
Cooper and Hunter Bedell. I wouldn’t be shocked to see either of them punched
tickets for the finals.
A lot
of guys doubling off the 4x8 for this race. It will be interesting to see who
can handle the double and who can’t (and that may be mostly due to who had to
run hard in the prelims and who didn’t).
Race Analysis: The Finals
Perretta
is a big favorite here, despite the new influx of talent. He's won this race
the past two years and, even if the field is better, so is Dom. He ran 1:50
indoors and outdoors this year and continues to inspire fear and awe in
everyone he faces, including the AAA 800 guys that he defeated at indoor
states.
But
that being said, Dom has struggled a bit to hit his top end speed in his 4th
race of the weekend. He touched on it in his most recent interview with Phil Grove, noting that even if the prelims are easy for him, running 4 hard races
can have a big cumulative effect. That's why he's come up just short of that
state record (1:51.96) the past two years despite having run 1:52 and 1:51 at
WPIALs on the double.
In
theory, Dom ran 1:53.30 last year and has been better this year (even if he
seemed a little flat at WPIALs). It's also reasonable to think he will hold
back a bit in the 1600 relative to last year to save that extra gear for the
800 (1:51.96 is a much more attainable mark than 4:03.22). So, by my guess,
he's going to be in the 1:51-1:52 range on race day.
That
makes the question, who from this field would have a chance to run a time like
that? Coming to mind first is Brookville's Ryan Thrush, who already has run
1:52 this year at Baldwin. But I'm nervous about Thrush's event choices. He's
entered in both the 400 and the 800 (in addition to the 4x4) and the 4-8 double
is, in my opinion, way harder than the 16-8. I think the 4-8 double is close to
impossible honestly. The best thing that I could see happening for Thrush, in
my outside opinion, is missing the finals in the 4 prelims and getting a fresh
day 2 shot at the 8. If he does make finals (he's around the 9 seed right now
so he has a good shot at making finals but not guaranteed), I can't see him
being a factor in this race.
I
like Dan Kuhn as a contender in this race, especially considering his monster
district races. He's a big strong kid and likely will handle the prelims well,
even factoring in the extra 4x8 races (which will be extra intense as Harbor
Creek is very much in the title discussion in that event). But I think Kuhn,
like Thrush, would need to be fresh as possible to get to Dom's level on race
day.
So my
eyes naturally jump to a couple fresh bodies in David Fletcher and sophomore
Kamil Jihad. Fletcher, the runner up last year, has had a fantastic season in
2015. He ran 1:53.30 at Bucknell and ran strong school record marks all the way
up to 3200. Fletcher is also a notoriously strong kicker and fast finisher so,
if Perretta does over extend himself early, he could potentially real him back
in before the finish. I think he's probably the best chance at an upset.
But I
will say I really like Jihad's odds on race day. The sophomore, formerly of
Chester, has run 1:54 this year, beating the top AAA runners at PCLs, but also
1:55 with a big negative split. Jihad also has 50 point 400 speed and qualified
for that event this past indoors in addition to the 8. He's been in district
finals and impressive state indoor fields in his two years on the circuit (1:55
as a frosh talent) and, much like someone like Josh Hoey, he's not your typical
sophomore in the experience department. Jihad may be just young and naive
enough to think he can run with Perretta on race day. And that may be the exact
attitude you need to pull the upset.
Predictions
Ultimately,
I just can't see anyone beating Dom, but I do thing this has the potential to
be a thrilling race. The talent may be just enough to give Perretta that
breakthrough he needs to get the state meet record.
1.
Domenic Perretta, Beaver Falls 1:51.90
2.
David Fletcher, Mount Caramel 1:52.653. Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti 1:53.39
4. Dan Kuhn, Harbor Creek 1:54.08
5. Joe Previdi, Masterman 1:55.99
6. Robert Reichenbaugh, Freedom 1:56.81
7. Mike Sheptuk, Notre Dame ES 1:56.93
8. Ryan Thrush, Brookville 1:57.05
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