AAA 4x800m Preview and Predictions

AAA

The Stage

In 2015, we witnessed a very rare achievement: a sub 7:40 4x800m. According to the etrain archives, it was just the 7^th PA program to break the historic mark and only the 5^th sub 7:40 in state meet history. Pennsbury’s 7:38.42 was the fastest in PIAA championship history since 2008-2009 where North Penn ran 7:38.79 and then CB South ran the mythical 7:33.48 that still stands as our state record.

On an early episode of TheRoundHouse, I mentioned that I thought the 4x800 state record had a chance to fall at this upcoming state championship. While, I’ve pulled back on that prediction, I do think Pennsbury’s breakthrough could be similar to the North Penn breakthrough in 2008 that paved the way for South to dive headfirst into history. Again, I don’t think this record is falling (for a variety of reasons) just merely making an intriguing historical comparison. I like those.

But ultimately, the most important goal for the competitors on Saturday will not be time, but place. An appearance on the top spot of the podium. Leading the charge as favorites for the 4x8 title will be State College. The Little Lions won the outdoor state title as recently as 2014 and, now famously, doubled back with a completely new squad in 2015 to finish third at states in a faster time (7:41.50 to 7:41.99). They also won the indoor state title, placed 3^rd at Nationals and were PA’s clear top team at the Penn Relays.

Of course, if State College does win, they will create quite a bit of history. If SC wins, they most likely will run at or under their 7:41.50 school record, giving them three straight seasons at 7:41 or better. I can’t say for certain, but based on the limited data I have that would be an unprecedented stretch of fast times. They also enter the meet as the 25^th seed out of 26 teams! Which (although it doesn’t matter in anything outside of the lane events) would be a historic jump to make in performance list terms.

Standing in their way, as usual, is the top contingent from District One. Up until a week ago, that would have been the boys from CB West. Once again, CB West has a platoon of sub 2 minute 800 runners (something like 8 guys on the roster by my count) and they ran a 7:46 at their league championship meet. However, at the district championship, Pennridge, who they had defeated at leagues, turned the tables on them and clocked a 7:48 to win by 7 seconds over the field. The dominant win gave the boys in green the favorite status as the primary challenger to SC.

The Rams are rounding into form just in time for an epic rematch with State College at Shippensburg. Last year, the Pennridge boys ran 7:40.56 to finish one spot ahead of the Little Lions from SC. CB West (who finished 4^th a year ago), Pennridge and State College return 9 total runners from last year’s championship including each squad’s anchor leg.

Race Analysis: The Prelims (First 4 in each heat, plus next 4 fastest advance to finals)

I’ve got CB West, CR North, Bishop Shanahan and Cedar Crest as my auto qualifiers out of Heat 1 with Pennridge, Carlisle, State College and CB East my auto qualifiers out of Heat 2. That left North Penn, Williamsport, LaSalle and Abington for my remaining 4 fastest loser spots to round out my personal 12 projected finalists. A couple notes here:

I’m banking on a bounce back race from Cedar Crest. They didn’t have their best day at districts, but there’s a ton of talent on this roster including Cruise and Royer who could both clock 1:56 or faster if necessary. They are tough program and I like them to advance. Williamsport is really strong. They run in District 4 so no one really will notice them, but they’ve dominated that section of the state this year (that includes a very good Lewisburg team) and they aren’t a fluke small district school. The last time they had a program this good they made the state final. Shout out to Herb Steely.

I’m not sure what to make of the WPIAL teams. I’ve left all of them out which might be a tad bold. North Allegheny is a team that could 100% make the finals on race day, however, I don’t know how committed they will be to the race. Last year they had an equally strong team, but perhaps too many individual obligations to see it through to the finals. This year they have two sub 2 legs (including a 1:56 sophomore), Jacob Stupak and a nice array of depth. But considering 3 of their 4 legs from WPIALs are in open events (Ehling, Stupak and Migz), I’m not sure they will go all in here when they aren’t trying to win the meet. If you’re looking for a super wild card: Seneca Valley, I believe, finished second at WPIALs without Mike Kolor. I doubt he will start running on the relay this weekend (odd time to start given his title hopes), but if for some reason he did they would suddenly become dangerous contenders. They ran pretty clutch indoors in the DMR.

O’Hara is another team like that. Keep an eye on what they decide to do as a line-up with Jones, Morro, Francis and Ryan James could potentially have 4 sub 2 minute legs (Morro, Francis and Jones have already done it, Ry is knocking on the door). However, with two of those guys in open events and a strong 4x4 to chase, I’m not 100% convinced O’Hara won’t throw out a “B” squad and let some of their depth experience states. Staying in District 12, however, this is a huge moment for LaSalle. They’ve decided to go completely in on the 4x8 this year, despite some strong individual success. They’ve struggled a tiny bit under the bright lights the past two years, so this will be their moment to change their legacy.

Race Analysis: The Finals

The big three squads will face off here again and I expect CB West to contend better than they did at districts. West decided to skip individuals with the hopes of exceling in this 4x8 and maybe beating some tired squads from Pennridge and State College. State College is doubling their 3 best legs in open events (and also has a strong 4x4) and Pennridge is doubling at least Tucker Desko in the open 8 and perhaps some members of their 4x8 in the 4x4 (although that’s not for certain). So that freshness could potentially come into play.

If you look at the match up, the way to beat State College seems to be to get away from them early. Their back three legs can each run at least 1:55 based on their PRs and they are excellent racers. You have to pin them back in the field and make them work for it the later part of the race. Especially if they have extra finals to think about later in the day. CB West could potentially do this, but Pennridge seems better equipped. They still, apparently, have the secret weapon of Austin Howell in their back pocket. Their 400 stand out (who has split 48 low this year at least) ran a very quick lead off leg for this team’s 7:40 4x8 last year, but was not listed on their line-up card at districts last weekend. Maybe he could help open up a gap early and make SC work for it.

Or maybe Pennridge just likes the way they match up. They have Tucker Desko on the anchor who has matched Milligan head to head before (see last year’s state final), a 1:56ish leg in Espinal (based on last year’s split), a frosh who can run 1:57 from scratch and either Howell or Araneta who both can run under 2 minutes.

For CB West, I think it’s going to come down to whoever they have on the 3^rd leg. I’m not sure Fortna has the raw speed to match up with Desko and Milligan on the anchor leg, so I’d think they need a slight lead. Whoever is running in their 3^rd spot will be in charge of pulling that through. Keep an eye out for the wildcard of Fortna on 2^nd leg and Claricurzio on anchor. They pulled out that order at indoor states and I really liked it. I’d be curious to see how it would work this weekend if they tried again, especially as Claricurzio has become a better and more confident runner in the past few weeks, running 1:55 in the open.

I personally don’t see anyone joining the 3 team battle at the front, although it’s worth noting that Carlisle has some very strong pieces. They already ran low 7:50s this year and won a loaded District 3 meet with ease, running 7:58. Matt Wisner could be the best anchor of everybody in this field considering his 1:53 low PR and Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner both have the ability to join him under 2 minutes.

CR North has had a terrific season. They have great depth and are well coached. Keller has taken a big step forward as an individual contender, but don’t forget that Heintz has thrown down some of the clutchest legs in town this season. I don’t see them as title contenders, but they are, in my opinion, very likely to finish in the medals. Shanahan is another strong team. They are similar to North but probably a tier below. They’ve shown up well on the big stage each of the past two state championships and Fromhartz has shown glimpses of top form in recent weeks as well.

Predictions

I’ve been lame so far! I’ve got all favorites still as I finish up my third preview. I don’t see anybody beating State College on this day. I think their back legs are super strong, Alex Milligan is on another level this year and, honestly, their lead off leg could potentially have a breakout day. I’m not sure who it will be (might be a different guy in trials than finals honestly), but Owen Wing has run 4:23 for 1600, under the SQS, which indicates to me he could breakthrough into the 1:57s. If that happens, this thing is over.

Pennridge will be hoping to steal one back in this rematch of the 2014 state title bout between SC and the D1 Champs. I can’t get the image of the 7:40 last year out of my mind. I really, really like CB West’s team, but I lean to Pennridge based on what they did last year and who they have on anchor. Lot of pressure on their freshman though.

Not sure what to make of North Penn. They could surprise and run in the low 7:50s or they could not even make the final. But just remember this is an 800 factory historically. So I’ll roll the dice on a sleeper pick from NP.

1.      State College 7:39.85

2.      Pennridge 7:42.61

3.      CB West 7:43.50

4.      CR North 7:47.69

5.      North Penn 7:49.27

6.      Carlisle 7:50.38

7.      Cedar Crest 7:52.25

8.      Shanahan 7:52.99