AA 3200m Preview and Predictions

AA
The Stage
Dominic Hockenbury will go for a 3rd straight title in the 3200m, joining a short list of three time champions. This event has always been his focus, choosing to skip the 1600 trials each of the past three years although he likely could have pulled in extra medals in those events as well (especially this year, given his resume). Since starting his sophomore year, Hockenbury has been either first or second in every state meet he has contested. He will hope to cap his impressive accomplishments with a long coveted state meet record in the 3200 (9:04.09 from 1997) this weekend.

But Hockenbury will be facing a very tough challenge, mainly from the two runners who have followed him closely during his previous two state titles. In an unprecedented race in 2014, three sophomores took the first 3 spots in the AA 3200: Hockenbury, Will Kachman and Will Loevner. Since then, Loevner and Kachman have each developed into big talents in their own right. Kachman was 3rd last year at states running a big PR of 9:18.53. Loevner was 8th last year after an off spring, but has bounced back well this spring. He clocked a 9:16.63 at Baldwin and then dropped a 9:19 for the WPIAL title this past weekend.

However, there is always a next generation ready to grab the throne. This year’s group is led by the man who finished closest to Hock this past fall at XC states: Junior Zach Skolnekovich. Skolnekovich ran 9:16 at Baldwin as well, just a few small ticks ahead of Loevner, but then had to settle for 2nd in their next showdown for the WPIAL title. Along with Skolnekovich will be his equally talented XC classmate Griffin Mackey, who won the A XC state title this past fall. Mackey has run in the low 9:20s and finished in the medals at last year’s state 3200 as a sophomore after winning the 2015 WPIAL 3200 title.

Race Analysis
I think I’ve honestly spent the last three years looking for guys to pick in front of Hockenbury. I’m not sure I’ve predicted him to cross the line first in any ofhis recent state championship races, a painful record considering he’s won 4 state golds (and counting). This year, I’m jumping on the bandwagon and buying in to the Hock machine. He’s so strong that I don’t think any of these other guys will be able to hang around when he puts the hammer down. And we know he won’t play games. The only way I can see him losing this race if he gets ran down in an epic kick from one of the other guys in this field. Nobody jumps out as an obvious pick for that role (maybe Skolnekovich? He’s got 4:23 and sub 2 speed).

After Hock, I think Kachman, Loevner, Skolnekovich and Bryce Descavish will make up that next tier of racers. I really like what Bryce has done the last couple state finals including his clutch 9:22 run last year. The other three have already had their achievements outlined fairly well, but I think it’s worth reiterating that Kachman has been in the top 3 each of the past two years, joining only Hock on that corner. I expect this group to battle things out and maybe work together to challenge Hockenbury late if things break in their favor. Ultimately, if anybody dips under 9:10 (when’s the last time a non-Hock AA guy went under 9:10 at states?) it will be a very impressive performance.

This race has got a nice group of sleepers as well. Tops on my list is Noah Curtin from Mercyhurst Prep. The Curtin boys are clutch as we saw with Sebastian Curtin the last couple years and Noah also inherited the gene. At the 2015 XC state meet he finished 2nd overall in his division after finishing just 2nd at districts. Now, having finished second at his district again, he will look to put a scare in that lead group and rise to the occasion. His district rival, Connor Walsh, is also peaking at the right time. He dropped a clutch 9:36 to win districts and was a top 5 guy in A during XC as well. Both guys are juniors in the young, loaded District 10.

I also really like Ben Bumgarner in this spot. He scratched the 1600 to focus purely on the 32 which I think speaks to his focus in this race. He ran 9:30 at districts on the double and now, with focused and conserved energy, will be able to hopefully utilize his strong mile-ing ability (indoor state qualifier) with his XC strength (top 10 finish in AA) and snag a medal in this field.

Predictions
I think Hock wins and makes it fun to watch as he goes after the record. In my mind it’s going to be super close. He has the pieces, but running in the 9:03s would be a PR for him and I’m not sure this is the optimal circumstances for a PR. However, he ran 9:08 last year and it seems to me that he’s a fitter dude than he was 366 days ago (shout out to leap years). In a blanket finish, I’ve got Skolnekovich exacting some revenge on Loevner and getting by for the silver. Counting on a big day from Curtin and a sleeper performance from Isaac Wilson who has quietly began to put things together at the perfect time.

1.      Dominic Hockenbury, Lake Lehman 9:05.18
2.      Zach Skolnekovich, Quaker Valley 9:15.54
3.      Will Kachman, Bedford 9:16.10
4.      Will Loevner, Winchester Thurston 9:16.17
5.      Noah Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep 9:19.55
6.      Bryce Descavish, Central Cambria 9:20.62
7.      Ben Bumgarner, Waynesburg 9:22.88

8.      Isaac Wilson, North Clarion 9:27.68

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