District One Preview

By Jarrett Felix

So with District One’s championships now rapidly approaching, I figured I’d make a couple small predictions. However, at the risk of making this post way long (I have a habit of getting carried away), I am limiting myself on this post. Here are the rules:

1) Explain some general thoughts on the race/field in a maximum of 3 bullet points

2) Predict the 12 finalists and the top 8 finishers in each of the 4 distance races
3) Explain your thoughts in a maximum of 2 bullet points

I’ll go in the order of events contested.

 

PS One post down is the performance list for reference. I'll link right here.

4x800m Trials

- The odds of a team scratching the 4x8 are next to zero. If you want to keep someone fresh for an individual event you just run a “B” squad in the relay and let your guys get extra experience. Unlike indoor states, anyone who hit the time is in, so running a “B” squad doesn’t affect anybody other team’s ability to compete. So I’m a 100% pro running “B” squads. Why is this important? Well, because it means that we already know the heats.  

Heat 1:
CB West, Shanahan, CB East, Upper Dublin, Wissahickon, Methacton, Bensalem, WC East, Spring Ford, Upper Merion

Heat 2:
Pennridge, CR North, Penn Wood, DT West, Henderson, Unionville, Tennent, Pennsbury, DT East, HG Prep

Heat 3:
Abington, North Penn, WC Rustin, Perk Valley, CR South, Penncrest, Owen J, Upper Darby, Cheltenham, Lower Merion

I would assume it will be top 3 in each heat automatically advance and then next 3 fastest overall.

- The heats seem pretty clear to me in terms of favorites. Heat 2 is probably most competitive on paper. Heat 1 becomes very, very interesting if CB East doesn’t run Brophy. There’s no clear team ready to steal their spot (UD and Wiss both running “B” squads it appears) so super sleeper Methacton could maybe make noise.

- I don’t think getting a time qualifier will be quite as hard as it has been in year’s past. It still probably takes around 8:03-8:05, but I don’t think anyone is getting left out who runs the SQS (which has happened before).

Predicted Finalists: CB West, Pennridge, Abington, Shanahan, CR North, North Penn, CB East, Henderson, Perk Valley, Penn Wood, Penncrest and Pennsbury

- Playing a major hunch on those last two Penn teams. William Tennent and DT East are big sleepers, especially East who was a surprise finalist last year. I think Rustin and DT West don’t run “A” teams and thus don’t get in, same for a few other squads. CR South and Cheltenham also schools to watch.

1600m Trials

- I think there will be a few key scratches and a lot of guys who, if they do run, are trying a tricky 4x8-16 double. That makes the finalist spots a bit more up for grabs and, I’d guess, they will end up going to the guys who have the freshest legs.

- Again, I don’t see this being quite as crazy as last year where a 4:23 didn’t make finals. I think that was driven mainly by all the 3200 guys who doubled up. That’s not happening this year for a variety of reasons.

- My important scratches are McGinnis and Desko. If they do end up running, I think they make it and bump some others out.

Predicted finalists: Josh Hoey, Liam Conway, Liam Galligan, Henry Sappey, Kent Hall, Ryan Barton, Rock Fortna, James Abrahams, Brandon Hontz, Patrick Donahue, PJ Murray, Noah Falasco

800m Trials

- This should be a fun race out front for the champion, but I see the back half of this field is very wide open. Again, I don’t know if guys like Abrahams and Conway will try both the 16 and the 8 (or just the 8 maybe) and I don’t know if guys like Claricurzio and Keller will bow out of the 8 if their 4x8 makes finals (there is a long list of these type of guys). My usual assumption is if you are a key member of your relay team, but haven’t run the SQS or close to it, you are scratching if your team makes finals.

- There’s a few guys in this field who haven’t raced in a while like Peter Cooke and Sean Conway. I think both those guys are big talents, but if they aren’t healthy they will struggle to make finals. I left them out, but if they are back and ready to roll, they could no doubt shake things up.

Projected finalists: Sean McGinnis, Tucker Desko, Brett Wolfinger, Jake Claricurzio, Bryan Keller, Hudson Delisle, Jack Armand, Cameron Christopher, Jaxson Hoey, Matt Kraus, Evan Kutney, Chase Semanyk

3200m Finals

- I have to imagine Jake Brophy is going to run away with this one. If he’s running on the 4x8 later, he probably won’t take things out and will just worry about qualifying (like last year), but his seed time is about 10 seconds better than the field and his PR (8:57 last year) is roughly 25 seconds faster than the field. Again, gotta think this is a race for second if Brophy decides he wants to win.

- But here’s the catch. If Brophy is running the 4x8, there’s basically no incentive for him to push the pace early in this one. And, with all due respect, this field doesn’t have a ton of guys who can wire to wire at 9:20 pace. All things considered, it’s extremely possible that there won’t be more than 5 guys who run the SQS this weekend in the 32 and District One might, for the first time in what feels like forever (but is probably not that long and I’m forgetting something) not send their full 8 guys for the 3200.

Prediction:

1. Jake Brophy, CB East
2. Joe Maguire, CR South
3. Kent Hall, Unionville
4. Ryan Campbell, CR North
5. Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy
6. Rob Moser, WC East
7. Jack Carmody, WC Rustin
8. John Conner, Spring Ford

- It’s a wide open field for sure, especially because it looks like Sappey and Conway are going to scratch, removing a couple of the top seeds from this field. I picked some guys who I think have something of a clutch gene on the big stage and will come up big. John Conner is my big wildcard. I was very impressed with what I saw from him at PACs.

- Don’t sleep on the CB West boys, I think they could sneak in there on the right day. Iatarola and Mass could work together to push each other to a big time. I definitely didn’t expect 9:29 from Mass last weekend. That was one of the more impressive performances of the weekend.  

4x800m Finals

- This is setting up to be a thrilling final. CB West and Pennridge are definitely the two favorites, having already broken  7:50 and returning a lot from established squads last spring. But we just saw these two squads face and off and CB West got the W in fairly convincing fashion. Hard to pick against West in this spot.

- Will North Penn run their “A” team? What about CB East? These are two squads with serious potential, but questionable commitment. Especially North Penn who, historically, has produced some of the best 4x8s in state history. If we see the North Penn from Penn Relays, that’s a team that could run low 7:50s or better.

- Let’s not forget Shanahan and Penn Wood ran 7:53 and 7:54 last year at districts and both squads return at least 3 legs from those squads. Shanahan especially has been clearly improved in 2016. If they run under 7:53 and 7:54 there are only 3 teams (CB West, Pennridge and Abington) who have run faster than that so far this year (although technically CR North did as well).

Prediction:

1. CB West
2. Pennridge
3. CR North
4. North Penn
5. Shanahan
6. Abington
7. Henderson
8. Perk Valley

- I think Abington and Penn Wood have the best chances to make me look silly in retrospect. Penn Wood is tricky because they don’t seem to care much about the individual 800s or even many in season 4x8s, but they turn it on for the post season like nobody else. Abington also has a nice history, but they haven’t seemed quite as sharp as they did indoors. I’ll be watching to see what Good and Mitchell do for Abington on race day.

- CR North has really impressed me so far. I think they have a chance to have a big weekend across a variety of distances. Keller has been a beast this year and Heintz is really hitting his stride. As long as they don’t run anybody out to line 3, I think they will be easy state qualifiers.

1600m Finals

- Although I told our RoundHouse viewers that Brophy was the biggest favorite this weekend, Josh Hoey is a very close second. He won the Penn Relays mile (as a sophomore) and has run 4:10-1:54 equivalents. I keep making the Craig Miller comparison (and I think it’s at least somewhat fair) and Miller won states as a soph in a meet record time.

- This is a big spot for Liam Conway. Assuming he goes all in on the mile (which I think he will), he will be in his first big time outdoor district final. He’s run brilliantly in a variety of events, but this is a different kind of stage. If Conway and Hoey take 1-2, that means sophomores will have the top 2 spots in what is traditionally the deepest and fastest district in Pennsylvania. That’s crazy.

- What will we see out of Ryan Barton and Henry Sappey in this one? With Jax Hoey in the 800, West must think very highly of these final two milers they have decided to put in instead of the defending state champion. How will they rise to the occasion?

Prediction:

1. Josh Hoey, DT West
2. Liam Galligan, Springfield DELCO
3. Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts
4. Ryan Barton, DT West
5. Henry Sappey, DT West
6. Rock Fortna, CB West
7. James Abrahams, Haverford
8. Noah Falasco, Upper Merion

- Don’t sleep on Liam Galligan. He has been pretty quiet this outdoor season, not jumping up to any of the big meets, but ran 4:16.24 to finish second in a loaded field at Warrior back in April. I think he has the extra little bit of experience (placing very well at indoor states in the mile) to pull things out.

- This is a very interesting race for Rock Fortna. I’m not positive Fortna will even try this double (he did last year at districts, but not states), but he’s a big talent who could end up being something like this year’s Sam Webb or maybe a couple year’s back Ryan Grace and pulling off the 4x8-16 double in style with a couple pieces of hardware.

800m Finals

- As we mentioned on TheRoundHouse (yes, I’ve just plugged the show twice, it’s a good one though!), this is a very wide open field. My fellow writer Sean Collins made a very intriguing pick with Brett Wolfinger of Quakertown (great sleeper pick) who may be able to steal this with fresh legs. He narrowly missed states last year and will have a little extra fire this time out. Plus, he grabbed an indoor state medal, showing impressive guts on the big stage.

- Could this be Sean McGinnis’s moment? 1:54.0 at Henderson and also 4:18-9:29 chops? That’s great strength that will benefit him in the second race of his weekend. Nobody really talked about him in our preview show (which I now kind of regret), but he could come out and still this thing with fresh legs of his own.

- The AAA 800 state title race is wide open right now. I’d say Milligan and Wisner are probably the favorites and then perhaps Kolor if he scratches the 16 (don’t think that’s happening). District 1 almost always has a name in the mix (6 of the last 8 state champs in this event), but who will it be? We find out this weekend. I think it could be Tucker Desko, but should we really count out Jaxson Hoey?

Prediction:

1. Tucker Desko, Pennridge
2. Sean McGinnis, Phoenixville
3. Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown
4. Jaxson Hoey, DT West
5. Bryan Keller, CR North
6. Evan Kutney, CR South
7. Jake Claricurzio, CB West
8. Chase Semaynk, DT West

- Who is Chase Semaynk? Well the DT West sophomore has been on fire recently and it’s generated a nice bit of buzz the past few weeks. He’s only run 1:58 so slotting him this high might be bold, but he just clocked a nice 600 at Henderson and has some fast teammates to work off. But he is just a sophomore on the big stage with rounds for the first time. He could realistically be anywhere from 1:54 to 2 flat this weekend and I wouldn’t be all that surprised.

- Shout out to the CR South boys. They’ve had a nice season and, if Kutney can survive the rounds and not have to do too much in the 4x8, I could definitely see him making noise in this final. He is a strong racer and I think he could definitely rise to the occasion at Districts. Especially because the last few qualifying spots are potentially wide open.