AAA 800m Preview and Predictions

AAA
The Stage
Ever heard that song “Madness” by Muse? Well there’s a part where they just say Madness a lot during the chorus (who would have thought?) … and it’s pretty much what I hear in my head when looking at the AAA 800 performance list. Maybe I should get that checked out? But before I get checked out, check this out.

The projected heats for this thing include 16 guys in a heat! 16! Considering how packed together the seed times are for the majority of runners and how fast these guys are, it’s going to be wild just trying to get around the first turn in decent position.

The #1 seed on this year’s performance list is a man by the name of Dave Whitfield. A year ago, Whtifield’s open PR according to milesplit was 2:03.66. There was a Bonner runner in the state final for 800 meters, but that runner was Sean Sullivan (in the 1600 this year). During indoor track, Whitfield ran an open time of 2:03.76 for 800m. Now he has dropped all the way down to 1:53.38! It’s one of the most spectacular drops in state history. Whitfield leads a crew of 4 District 12 runners to states where they will enter seeded #1, #2, #7 and #16.

The District One Champion, always one of the top names to consider in state title discussions, was Jaxson Hoey of Downingtown West who, quite frankly, may only be in the 800 because of health issues and incredible squad depth. He’s the defending indoor and outdoor champion in the mile, but by fluke circumstances, finds himself in the 800 as one of the top seeds and, possibly, the state title favorite.

Alex Milligan, a popular pick to win the state championship in this event by some of our writers, opted to scratch the event. In exchange, State College entered Tony Degleris and Nick Feffer. Degleris enters the meet as the #9 overall seed despite being arguably the team’s 3^rd best 800 runner.

However, within the madness, one name shines as the potential favorite who could erase all confusion. That would be Matt Wisner of Carlisle. Wisner pulled off an impressive triple at D3s, including a sub 9:30 3200 and a 1:55 800 victory in sub-optimal conditions. He’s the top returner from last year’s championships and the top indoor returner for AAA (he finished second).

Race Analysis: The Prelims (First 4 in each heat plus next 4 fastest times advance to finals)

As I mentioned already, getting through the first turn in these prelims is going to be outrageous. How the heck they are going to squeeze 16 into a heat is beyond me. But hey, that’s the way things are always done. Why change it? I’m keeping my fingers crossed that no one suffers any serious injuries on race day.

Believe it or not, the first name I looked for in the heat sheets was O’Hara’s Justin Jones. He may have the biggest impact on who goes through to the finals and who doesn’t. Jones, who is one of the top 10 seeds at 1:55.71, apparently took out the District 12 championships in 53 seconds for the first 400. He’s also gone out fast at some other races I’ve watched like the indoor states 4x8 and DMR. I have no problems with the strategy (he’s running great times the past few weeks and making others run his race), but if one prelim goes out in 53 and the other goes out in 55 or 56, guess where the time qualifiers are coming from?

And in a 16 man field, I would absolutely love to have someone take it out in 53 and string everyone out. Now maybe we don’t see anything like that in a prelim, but I don’t think it would be a bad thing. Jones will run out of Heat 1 on Friday and will be joined by another guy unafraid to push the pace, Brett Wolfinger of Quakertown.

On paper, I think Heat 1 may actually be the easier heat to qualify out of. I think Heat 2 has more talent and more quality guys. But if Heat 1 is the faster heat and pulls in all the time qualifiers, there’s going to be some super talented guys left home from the final.

With all this craziness in mind, here’s who I have surviving the 32 person slugfest on Friday afternoon:

In Heat 1, I’ve got McClellan, Desko, Wolfinger and Feffer getting the big Qs. From Heat 2, I have Whtifield, Hoey, McGinnis and Wisner getting the big Qs. That leaves the small qs for Bove, Keller, Espinal and Klick. I split the qualifiers 2 and 2, assuming the best guys would get in, but that may be a bold assumption.

A couple more notes on the prelims and then I promise I’ll move on.

Sean McGinnis and Michael Bove missed the finals last year by 0.05 and 0.18 respectively. If you think they don’t remember that and aren’t motivated by that, then I’m not sure you’ve ever had a bad race. Those things live with you for a long time and I bet these guys will shine given a second chance to compete in a state final.

On the flip side, I’m very interested to see how Whitfield and McClellan run in this race. McClellan at least has a little experience (he was bounced in the prelims last year after running 1:54 to win his district), but Whitfield has never been in a state prelim quite like this. He also has the pressure of the #1 seed and a target on his back. I think he advances, but even he is far from a lock for the finals.

Joe Espinal has been here three straight years now. He ran the 16 in the past and now will focus on the 8. He’s a super talented guy from District 11 and has amassed a wealth of experience. This could be his year to get in a final.

And how about Justin Miller from General McLane? Kid came out of nowhere to run 1:56.67 at District 10s and win by a large margin. I don’t think he will make the finals, but the kids got momentum and could rise to the occasion in this fast heat.

Race Analysis: The Finals

This race is going to be a blast. If all the big names get there, it should be a ton of fun. I assume somebody will take it out hard, but I can’t say who. I doubt it will be Wisner or Desko, both of whom will be coming off the 4x8. Plus, Wisner isn’t one to take up a fast pace and hammer, he’s more of a kicker. If this thing goes slow enough, it’s hard to imagine Wisner not tearing up the last 200. If this race is fast enough, however, he could end up falling too far off the pace early to be a factor in the home stretch.

I was so ready to take Milligan for the win in this race, but he scratched leaving me in a position to audible. I’ve been on Tucker Desko’s corner this year as well, however, I’m a little concerned about how he handled the double at districts. He was matched up against some great talent there, but things should only get trickier at states. The big variable is the emergence of Jaxson Hoey as a title contender. What a story it would be if the Hoey boys took gold in both the 8 and the 16. Admittedly, I’m not positive how healthy Jaxson will be (he mentioned that he’s been battling illness in his penntrack interview) and any inconsistencies will be amplified at states. Remember Drew Magaha in 2010? Or2012? But at least, unlike Drew, Jaxson switched to the 8 rather than the push through in the 16.

Should I just go all in on Whtifield? He’s not exactly a household name (although he’s quickly becoming one) and he’s fairly inexperienced, but you can’t deny the kid is really fast. No one else has run 1:53.38 this year and few have run it in their careers. If he’s the best runner in the field, why can’t he win?

As of the typing of this sentence, I still haven’t decided who I’m picking for the win, so let me talk about a few other names who I see competing strong for medals. I personally really think Nick Feffer could have a strong showing. I’m not positive he will handle the double well, but he did impress on his second race at Penn Relays earlier this year. I also just think the kid is a gamer who hits top form at the right time. I could see him ending up like Alex Coburn did a few years back for CV. The lesser known #2 runner on a great 4x8 who turns it on down the stretch and grabs individual gold on the double.

What will see from Derin Klick? The guy has run 1:54 this year (twice I believe) and was second to Wisner at District 3s in wet conditions. But he’s a junior with limited experience on the big stage just like Whitfield, only he hasn’t run 1:53 and grabbed a district title. But I love this kid’s talent and see a ton of potential if he can handle the spotlight.

Predictions

OK, here we go. I think Wisner and Desko are my two favorites overall, but I’m nervous about both of them doubling back for this tight race. I think there’s more of a chance Wisner survives the 4x8 than Desko as Tucker will be in the mix for a state title while Carlisle is more in the 5-10 range in my opinion. Plus Wisner pulled off the double better than Desko did last week. So point to Wisner.

I’m scared to pick Hoey. Dude has unreal talent, but it’s not fair to put the pressure of a state title on him given what he has struggled through this season. I’m sure he wants to win and will go for the win, but I could see somebody swallowing him up in the final 100.

I don’t have the guts to pick a D12 guy. I apologize. Those guys are super talented and extremely fast, but I can’t go that bold. Even after Brehm last year, I can’t pull the trigger.

I want you guys to know I came inches from picking Sean McGinnis for the win if, for no other reason, because I can’t choose between the other names in this field (even though the dude is a beast, running on fresh legs). But ultimately, I’m going with the following, extremely close finish, predictions.

1. Matt Wisner, Carlisle 1:52.96

2. Sean McGinnis, Phoenixville 1:53.08
3. Jaxson Hoey, DT West 1:53.15
4. Tucker Desko, Pennridge 1:53.23
5. Dave Whitfield, Bonner 1:53.55
6. Michael Bove, Fox Chapel 1:53.62
7. Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown 1:53.89
8. Nick Feffer, State College 1:54.17

Wisner steals it going from 5th to 1st in the final 150. Not sure those times are even physically possible considering how close everyone would have to squeeze together, but that’s what I’ve got. My goodness, that was painful.