By Jarrett
Felix
Let the
games continue! We broke down the mile a couple days back and now I’ll jump
along the 800 meters. We had some solid discussion on the first post, so
hopefully this generates some more. A reminder that you can go to LXV+ to check
out all the rankings. I’m missing a meet out west (Noah Beveridge, Mark Brown
highlighted those results), but otherwise I think it is pretty up to date.
The Event
The 800
will be a three heat event, which is important to keep in mind. There are
usually medal contenders from every heat and, every so often, a runner wins the
state title from one of the slower heats. This happened back in 2010 when Luke
Lefebure grabbed the title away from big favorite Tom Mallon (doubling). This
year, I think another slow heat winner is in play, depending on who is bold
enough to take out the pace.
For the
record, the state guideline is 2 minutes and 0.13 seconds for a bank track.
Unlike the mile, this standard has actually been pretty on par with the cut
offs. In 2016 the cut off was about 2:00.15 while in 2015 the cut off was
2:02.54, but I think the second to last entry was closer to 2 flat. In 2015, I’m
almost positive a bunch of coaches didn’t even both to enter athletes above the
guideline and, as a result, their guys missed states. Upper Darby ended up
getting their guy in even though he was over 2 seconds above the qualifying.
Shout to them.
Last winter,
we finished with 33 guys under the 2 flat either by conversion or actual time. We’ve
got 20 so far. The fast heat cut off was a 1:57.22 when scratches came down.
Currently, I’m projecting the fast heat cut off at 1:56.92, but we could
certainly see a couple scratches in there. The top 5 finishers in 2016 came
from the fast heat and 6 of the 8 medalists.
What Has Actually Happened So Far
So far,
we’ve seen the milers dominate this event. Noah Affolder made his PA individual
track debut with a blazing fast 1:54.72. He ran that in the middle of a triple
and won by a wide margin on a flat track. His time converts to 1:54.12. Last
year, only Mike Kolor of Seneca Valley ended the regular season with a faster
time. Of course, Noah is primarily a miler but that doesn’t rule out either 1)
a mile-800 double or 2) a 4x8-8-DMR triple. I know people are skeptical of this
move, but I think it could potentially work. Personally, I’m not seeing a team
title for Carlisle, but I do agree if that’s what they want, the better
strategy is to ditch the “A” 4x8. We’ll see what his team qualifies in over the
next month.
#2 on the
performance list and #1 in the state by raw time is Josh Hoey of Bishop
Shanahan. Hoey is also #1 in the state for the mile and has run on Shanahan’s
state leading 4x4. In addition, there’s talk that Hoey have Shanahan’s title
contending 4x200 relay. That could make for a busy meet. Personally, I’d be
stunned if we don’t see Josh doubling up mile-800 like his brother Jaxson did a
year ago. And I think he’s got a great chance to win both events, making him
the first guy to pull it off since Wade Endress did it in 2011. I’ve been really
impressed with the speed Hoey has shown and he just seems like he’s in sharp
racing shape. I don’t know his doubling ability incredibly well, but he seems
like a strength runner who could pull it off as he enters his junior season.
Out
West, Nick Wagner has been running from coast to coast and dropping fast times.
Early in the season he raced at the Armory, Penn State, Dickinson, and Ursinus.
He’s taken a little down time it appears which is probably a good sign. I’d
imagine we will see him at the TSTCA meets soon with potential match ups coming
against Ryan Thrush (state #5), Isaiah Bailey (#15), Zach Ehling (#18) and
Donovan Myers (#20).
Joe
Cullen of Wyomissing should be no joke either. He ran 1:56 this weekend in a
fast meet, but not the fastest heat. He crushed his section and is way ahead of
where he was this time last year. Remember, he split 1:54 last outdoors on a
clutch anchor leg for his 4x8. That was as only a sophomore.
A bit
farther down the roster, I’ve got to give some shout outs to guys who have been
racing well that have stayed out of the headlines. Collin Ebling of Pottsville
and Derek Jones of Cathedral Prep have both been excellent this year. They are
probably the two best guys in the state that people have never heard of. Ebling
has run a 1:56 this season at PSU and also hung tough in a loaded Burdette 800.
Meanwhile, Derek Jones has been racing essentially exclusively in Ohio, but he
turned in a 1:59.67 on the 19th. That puts him in the top 20 in the
state.
Aqeel
Bacchus of Bensalem also seems like a good sleeper pick. He just ran 2 flat at
Kutztown which is not the fastest of tracks. He did it in a big time winning
effort as well. Don’t forget Bensalem had the indoor 800 champ in 2013 and 2014.
What Might Happen Next
Personally,
I think the two best pure 800 guys in the state aren’t even in the top 10 of
PA. Nick Feffer of State College (12th) and Kamil Jihad of Neumann
Goretti (19th) are both outside the fast heat as things currently
stand. Feffer has run 1:58.9 hand time while Jihad has run just 2:00.52, but
last season they were the best two underclassmen in their respective divisions
at states. Feffer ran 1:53.5 and Jihad ran 1:52.2. Jihad’s time is in the top
50 or so marks in state history and he did as just a sophomore.
But it
seems both these guys are racers more than time trailers. Neither has had a
huge margin of victory and run a fast time and, if I recall, they ran similarly
last year. That’s definitely a good thing for guys trying to win a state
championship, but the jury is still out on whether they will find the meets to
run fast enough to get them in the right race. Jihad has a bunch more opportunities
like PCLs and Meet of Champs. Feffer may get a chance to go head to head with
Joe Cullen, the aforementioned 1:56 man.
Keep an
eye on the western guys. Isaiah Bailey ran 1:56.71 last indoors and that got
him into the fast heat. That was a pretty big indoor PR at the time, but he
backed it up with a 1:54 outdoors. Bailey has run just 1:59 so far, but I
wouldn’t be surprised if he pops a big race toward the end of the year. Donovan
Myers is a fantastic runner form Seneca. He split 1:53 last year with a very
fast anchor performance at states for the AA champs. He ran 1:58.07 last year,
but scratched out of the state finals for some reason (Seneca not historically
a big indoor program). This year it appears that he and his brother are gearing
up for a full season so hopefully we get the chance to see what Donovan can do
at PSU.
Other guys
who could make moves include Hudson Delisle, Luke Everidge, Austin Padmore,
Jarett Boyd and Robert Dupell. Also potentially Logan Yoquinto for Shanahan and
Liam Conway for Owen J Roberts. Oh and Cameron Christopher from Wissahickon.
Yeah, I think there’s lots of guys still lurking around.
Way Too Early Predictions
Again,
I’m not going too specific with these, but I’ll give you my gut instincts as of
1.26
1.
I
think Brookville’s Ryan Thrush could win this title if he wants. He’s run 1:56
already this year, which should put him in the fast heat even if he never runs
the event again until states. He ran 1:52 last year and he has 48 second speed.
To win the indoor 8, most of the time you just have to take the thing from the
front and grind, making it impossible for anyone to come by you. I could see
Thrush doing that, or I could see him hanging on to someone else who does that
and then finding one last gear. However, I think he’s also got a great shot in the
400 and that comes first. He will almost certainly run both, but the events are
so close together I’d be super impressed if he can run both well.
2.
I’m
pretty sure Jihad will run a time to get him in the fast heat. Assuming he
does, I think he wins. Even if he doesn’t I think he might still win. Feffer
would be interesting with his home field advantage, but I could also see him
being tired from a herculean anchor leg in the 4x8 to try and keep the state
title with SC. Typically, I don’t like to pick guys on the double if I can help
it, that’s why I’d be nervous about Hoey, Affolder, etc.
3.
I
like Peter Cooke and Derin Klick as medal contenders. Klick has a 1:53 PR and I
think he comes on strong at the end of the year. Cooke just seems like a solid
racer and he ran a gutsy individual race at this meet last year in Heat 1. He’s
run 1:56 already this indoors.
4.
I
think the state cut off this year ends up being under 2 minutes for the first
time. We were close last year and I think this year will end up being deeper.
The crazy thing is, right now, I’ve got no projected scratches in the top 23
overall on this list and 24 of the top 25. That’s wild to me. And I’m not sure
how many guys could end up in the scratch pile even in a month or so. That’s
the reason why I’ve got a hunch the cut off to get into this year’s meet will
be fast.
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