State Breakdown: Mile

By Jarrett Felix

Since I’ve got to make a post a day to keep this post streak going, I figured it might be a good idea to do some event by event breakdowns for this point in the indoor season. And I’ve decided to start with the mile. Now, if you remember, you can keep an eye on how everyone’s times currently stack up in the state by going to lxvplus.blogspot.com and clicking around the rankings. That is a concrete representation of the numbers. This post, however, will be very speculative, opinionated and subjective. That’s kinda my thing. So let’s roll.

The Event

Let’s get some details out of the way before we get started. The “SQG” for this event is 4:32.43 for a flat track. What that means is that if you run 4:32.43 than it doesn’t matter because the SQG’s don’t mean anything anymore. I suppose the time is technically there to give you a feel for what time might be the state cut off, but the PTFCA doesn’t care if the actual cut off is nowhere near it. For example, last year the state cut off ended up being 4:29.78 for a flat track. That’s over 2 and half seconds faster than the SQG. Now 2.5 seconds may not sound like a lot, but there were actually 12 athletes between 4:29.78 and 4:32.28 last year.

The good news for mile hopefuls is, I would think we would see significant scratches from this event. With the new “4x8 first” schedule, if you are an athlete running on the 4x8, the mile is a really hard double. If you are an athlete running on both the 4x8 and the DMR, then it’s unlikely you will run any individual event (although there may be an exception). And if you want to focus on either the 3k or the 800 exclusively, then you will scratch from the mile (Unless you are going to steal a spot from someone and purposely false start. C’mon coaches). Last year, out of the top 10 individuals, 3 ended up as scratches. Out of the top 20, 9 ended up as scratches.

But remember, even with all those scratches, the cut off still ended up being very quick relative to the SQG. This year, we already have 22 people at or under the SQG and a few more knocking on the door. I see a decent amount of potential scratches from this group, but there are guys who will continue to improve or guys you have not raced the event yet who will probably make a dent in the rankings sooner rather than later.

What Has Actually Happened So Far

PA has already had two runners qualify for Millrose which is pretty fantastic. Josh Hoey of Bishop Shanahan did it first, running 4:17 for a victory back in 2016. Almost a month later, Sam Affolder joined him with a 4:19 run. Both marks were posted in winning efforts on the Armory’s banked track. Josh is last year’s state runner up and also the Penn Relays mile champion. This year, he’s running better than he did a year ago. Much better honestly. He has to be the favorite right now. That said, Sam wasn’t even in this state last year. Plus, he was just a freshman. We’ve seen that sophomores can make big jumps, even from their successful 9^th grade years. Ironically, you just need to look at Josh Hoey’s 2016 to see proof.

Tristan Forsythe, Liam Conway and Brandon Hontz are the next tier by time. Of this group, I’ve been most impressed with Hontz. He ran sub 4:20 last year, has run some very quick 800s and just looks like he is in sharp, consistent racing shape. Forsythe raced in December, but I haven’t seen much from him since. Conway is coming off an injury that stifled the end of his XC season so I’d like to see a little more from him before I place bets. That being said, Conway has a 4:15 1600 PR and 1:54 speed. So he can certainly be dangerous.

The top flat track performer has been Evan Addison of LaSalle. The Junior rolled to a 4:25 victory at the Haverford meet that many know as the meet where LaSalle runs all their dudes. Addison has also dropped an impressive 8:46 for 3k. Keep in mind he ran about 4:17 for a full mile last spring and has good track speed. Then he won the district championship in XC. I’ve said this before and, although I hesitate to compare anyone to a sub 4 miler, I do see some resemblance between Addison and Tom Coyle’s careers to date. I won’t be surprised if Addison cracks the top 3 at states in the mile if he runs it. The last part there is key as LaSalle seems locked in to be one of those teams that does both relays and that’s it, making Addison kind of the perfect case study for why the two-relay rule has not only decreased the quality of the relays, but also decreased the quality of individual events. Sorry Evan, I’m using this paragraph about your awesome running to make a political point about the state championship system. I’ll save that for another day.

Some sleepers from the year season? I like what James Abrahams has done. I’d like to see a bit more results from him, but based on his resume he is definitely a medal contender. I really like what I’ve seen from Pennsbury. I think there is little to no chance that they run this mile (4x8-DMR seems probable for that team), but both Kersten and breakout star Jed Scratchard have run excellent marks to start the year. Lastly, Sam Owori from Seneca Valley looked excellent in his first individual race. I could definitely see him as individual medal contender similar to sophomore Tristan Forsythe a season ago.

What Might Happen Next

As previously mentioned, PA already has two Millrose qualifiers. Neither of those are the two PA returners from last year’s Millrose Games. I use the term “PA returners” liberally here as technically Noah Affolder ran in a NY uniform last year. But now at Carlisle, Noah, who was 2^nd at last year’s games, will almost certainly be back in action at the mile distance in time for this event. He may have gotten an automatic bid (I think they still do those) and based on his 1:54 flat track performance, he is good enough shape to challenge for the PA #1.

The other returner is Nick Dahl. He hit his stride in the mile recently and gave the event a fair bit of focus in 2016. He started out this indoor season with a 4:14 split and an 8:30 3k so clearly the kid is fit. I think it’s safe to expect he makes a bid for Millrose and, no pressure of course, he runs a solid time. Despite his elite status over the past two plus seasons, Dahl has yet to compete at an individual event at indoor states. He’s scratched individual efforts for team goals as a sophomore and junior, both years where he would have been a contender at either 3k or mile. He’s a team player and another victim of the two relay rule.

I think if Dahl does go individual this year, it will be the mile rather than the 3k. The 3k-DMR double is just no doable in my opinion. Or at least no doable if you want to compete for a state title in the DMR, which GFS definitely does. It’s either going to be 4x8-DMR or Mile-DMR for Dahl this season. His next result in the 8-lapper could help determine exactly which way the chips fall.

A couple other guys to watch for currently outside the state qualifying window include Connor McMenamin of Souderton (state medalist last indoors), Noah Beveridge of Butler (can run much faster at this event), Matt Scarpill of CB South (made the fast heat last year), Jesse Cruise (4:17, 1:55 PRs) and Eric Kennedy (outdoor medalist at 1600). I’m thinking Beveridge will focus on the 3k and McMenamin might as well (he crushed a sub 9:20 3200 to end XC). Also lurking could be Sean Brown of Roman Catholic.

Way Too Early Predictions

I won’t go incredibly specific because, as you may have guessed, it’s way too early for predictions. However, I do have a couple hunches that I will outline.

1.       The big question mark right now is Carlisle. They could potentially win both distance relays, but those relays would cripple much of their individual goals. So maybe a Mile-DMR double makes more sense. However, keep in mind that Noah has already tripled 4x8-800-DMR and crushed it. I think that’s the triple Noah tries. Sam may or may not get a chance at this mile, but he’s still relatively young. My gut says both relays, no individuals for him. But that could quickly change.

2.       I think Josh Hoey is going to win this race. He seems very focused, determined and ready to get a statement victory. He’s still searching for his first state gold which could add some extra incentive. Depending on who else is in the race, he could be pushed down toward the 4:12ish range, but I’m guessing this race is won closer to 4:15, especially without Dahl and the Affolders

3.       I think guys like Bumgarner, Slavin, Kujdych, Beveridge and potentially McMenamin all go to the 3k, while Cullen, Jihad and others go to the 8 leaving the door open for some sleepers to emerge in the mile. Hudson Delisle is an intriguing name. I think he is more of an 800 specialist, but if he pops off a good mile, he could jump in this event instead and suddenly be contending for a top 6 spot.

4.       If Evan Addison gets his shot in the mile, I’ve got a feeling he could do really well. Might be too much pressure to put on the kid, but I’ve seen some potential that would be cool to see in an individual event. I think there’s a chance he gets an opportunity this season and they leave him off the 4x8. But if I had to guess at this moment, he’s running only the relays.

Let me know what you think about the mile so far and stay tuned for more event by event break downs to come!