2017 PIAA XC District Previews: District 1

District 1 (10/27)

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

1. Jenkintown

2. Dock Mennonite

1	Jack Miller	Jr	Jenkintown
2	Josh Jackson	Sr	Jenkintown
3	Luke Miller	Fr	Jenkintown
4	Isaiah Denlinger	Sr	Dock Mennonite
5	Patrick Wagner	Jr	Jenkintown
6	Carter Geer	Fr	Jenkintown
7	Charlie Schaefer	Sr	DELCO Christian
8	Charles Mangan	Sr	Jenkintown
9	Caleb Limmer	Sr	Jenkintown
10	Sanjay George	Jr	Calvary
11	Steven Seachrist	Jr	Dock Mennonite
12	Ian Anderson	Sr	Dock Mennonite
13	Sam Feather	Jr	Calvary
14	Tom Brewer	Sr	Devon Prep
15	Elijah Johnson	So	Church Farm
16	Alex Consentino	So	Valley Forge

With Dock’s Tim Kennel moving to AAA Souderton this season, the door has been left wide open for the Jenkintown duo of Jack Miller and Josh Jackson to seize control of the individual landscape. Miller hasn’t disappointed after a terrific sophomore campaign and rolled through the White race on this same Lehigh course a few weeks back, breaking 16 minutes. He and Jackson should be relatively unchallenged in this race and the Jenkintown team in general will likely roll through, hoping to make a statement run prior to states. I’m interested to see if their top 5 guys can pull off a sweep in this event.

Looking to stand in the way of that sweep will be Isaiah Denlinger and Charlie Schaefer. Both are among the top returners from a year previously and have state qualifying experience. Denlinger has stepped up as the #1 runner for Dock and is looking to help his team mix it up in the final standings. Keep an eye on Sanjay George of Calvary as a sleeper in the individual category.

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

1. Pope John Paul

2. HG Prep

1	Cameron Junk	Sr	Upper Perk
2	Shane McKeon	Sr	Pope John Paul
3	Shane Cohen	Jr	Lower Moreland
4	Jack Phillips	Jr	Pope John Paul
5	Burton Carbino	Jr	HG Prep
6	Chris Cammarata	Sr	New Hope
7	Killian Brennan	So	HG Prep
8	Michael Florig	Sr	Pope John Paul
9	Bryce Hampton	Jr	Pottsgrove
10	Antonio Camacho	Fr	HG Prep
11	Connor McFadden	Jr	Lower Moreland
12	John Horgan	Fr	HG Prep
13	Ethan Creveling	Sr	Octorara
14	Christian Kruse	So	New Hope
15	Jack Brosius	Fr	Pope John Paul

This is the first time I actually went back on my original prediction. So far this year I’ve stuck to my instincts when it comes to team qualifiers, but after a careful review I decided to switch Pope John Paul and HG Prep in my final standings. Prep intrigues me because they are such a historically strong program. They’ve also put together a consistent pack with a few potential breakout stars like Killian Brennan. They are on the younger side with 2-3 freshman potentially in their scoring side and they are inexperienced. Prep graduated their entire scoring 5 from last year’s district championship squad. Only Burton Carbino returns so he will be a key cog in Prep’s hopes of qualifying.

Pope John Paul has the potentially to really run away with this race. Their top 3 guys at Paul Short were fantastic. Phillips, McKeon and Florig each have a chance to break into the top 3 overall on the right day. Freshman Jack Brosius has proven himself as a capable scorer. PJP looked on the vulnerable side to me on league day and it will be important that everyone is on top of their game on Friday. If they leave the door open at the #5 spot, we could see Prep storm through with a tight spread. However, right now I think Phillips has a big bounce back from Pioneer and the team’s big three carry them to victory.

Individually, I think the runner to watch is Cameron Junk. I’d be surprised to see anyone besides Junk at the top of this field and I’m going to be watching closely to see what kind of time he has in his legs. Junk is among the long list of names on my AA medal contenders list. The top challengers to Junk (outside of the top guys from PJP and HGP) are likely Shane McKeon of Lower Moreland and Chris Cammarata of New Hope. The top 8 runners from last year’s championship meet at Lehigh have all graduated. The door is open for a new star to rise in District One AA.

AAA (5 Teams, 25 Individuals)

1. CR North

2. DT West

3. Spring Ford

4. CB West

5. Owen J Roberts

6. WC Henderson

7. Bishop Shanahan

8. Penncrest

9. Unionville

10. Boyertown

11. CB East

12. North Penn

1	Rusty Kujdych	Sr	Neshaminy
2	Ryan Campbell	Sr	CR North
3	Liam Conway	Sr	Owen J Roberts
4	Josh Hoey	Sr	Shanahan
5	Spencer Smucker	Sr	WC Henderson
6	Ethan Koza	Sr	CR North
7	Avery Lederer	Sr	Penncrest
8	Carlos Shultz	So	Phoenixville
9	Brendan O'Toole	Sr	North Penn
10	Payton Sewall	Jr	DT West
11	Jacob McKenna	Sr	Spring Ford
12	Tyler Rollins	Sr	DT West
13	Jason Cornelison	Jr	Cheltenham
14	Sam Early	Sr	CR North
15	Ben Hoyer	Sr	Wissahickon
16	Josh Lewin	So	WC East
17	Zack Forney	Sr	Ridley
18	Michael Samson	Sr	CB West
19	James Conway	Jr	Unionville
20	Jonah Hoey	So	Shanahan
21	Hudson Delisle	Sr	Quakertown
22	Kevin Ehrgott	Sr	CR North
23	Sean Rahill	Sr	William Tennent
24	Noah Dusseau	Sr	Avon Grove
25	Colton Walker	So	Unionville
26	Dominic Derafelo	Sr	Boyertown
27	Jake Robinson	Sr	Conestoga
28	John Zawislak	Fr	Spring Ford
29	Patrick Theveny	So	Penncrest
30	Noah Demis	So	North Penn
31	Shane Ainscoe	Sr	Spring Ford
32	Christian McComb	So	Boyertown
33	Justin Sneckarib	Sr	Penncrest
34	Carter Laatsch	Sr	CB West
35	Mike Donnelly	So	Haverford
36	Andrew Malmstrom	Sr	Owen J Roberts
37	Matt Varghese	So	Methacton
38	Ben Bunch	Sr	CB West
39	Gavin Fitzgerald	Fr	Oxford
40	Matt Maiae	Sr	Wissahickon
41	Calvin Pash	Jr	WC Henderson
42	Ben Brugger	Sr	Upper Dublin
43	Evan Kaiser	Sr	DT West
44	Josh Endy	Sr	Boyertown
45	Cade Sands	Jr	CB East
46	Alex Bardwell	Jr	CB East
47	Brian Baker	Sr	CB West
48	Charlie Herrmann	Jr	Lower Merion
49	Andrew Zawodniak	Sr	CR South
50	Brian Johnson	Jr	North Penn

Here we go. The preview that many of you have been waiting for. I spoke a lot on the team race in my district preview radio show (worth a listen if you are into that sort of thing) and will try not to repeat myself too much in this post. But before we revisit that team race, let’s go ahead and take a look at the individuals.

Rusty Kujdych has been the #1 guy all season. Historically, the #1 guy all season comes to districts and wins. We haven’t seen many upsets on this surface. Rusty proved himself against some of his toughest opponents earlier this year on this very same course. Then last week, he toppled another prime contender in Ryan Campbell at their league championship. It would take something special to beat the Neshaminy senior who seems poised for a second straight district title.

All that being said, I could see a world where he is upset. Liam Conway finished within 10 seconds of Rusty at Paul Short with a blazing fast time of 15:08. In this race, Kujdych won’t have the advantage of working with Dalton Hengst to set a fast pace. Maybe that makes Kujdych a little bit more tired on the finishing stretch and Conway can use his 4:13/1:53 speed to close down and take the victory. The same logic could be used to bet on Josh Hoey of Bishop Shanahan who has 1:49 800 speed his legs. He was a little farther back than Conway at Paul Short, but he’s been known to peak at the right time. Hoey is looking for revenge after a disappointing (for him) result at last year’s district championship. Conway and Hoey both have the added pressure of needing to produce a low stick result to try and help their team sneak in to states among the crowded fight for the top 5.

In fact, of my projected top 10 finishers, everyone besides Kujdych and Phoenixville’s Carlos Shultz are running for teams I think have at least a long shot chance for states. Even Phoenixville has a chance at a top 10 finish and, heck, Neshaminy has put together a sneaky good team performance as of late.

There are a lot of interesting names in that “second tier” of guys. Brendan O’Toole has been awesome this year and I think he may have just scratched the surface of his potential with a sub 16 run at Leagues. Jason Cornelison of Cheltenham is on a roll as of late. He could top Will Griffen’s 15:52 from last season (which was good enough for 14^th overall). His rival, Ben Hoyer of Wissahickon, could flip the script on him and break into the top 10. I feel like there is usually a league champ who gets upended by a rival the next week (happened with D’Aquila and Abrahams last year) and the Hoyer-Cornelison match up seems to be the most likely place for a switch.

Currently, I’m projecting one of the lowest ever number of juniors in the state qualifying window. I only have 3 guys on the list which is incredibly unlikely. What does that mean? Either I’m seriously underestimating a couple juniors or I nailed it and we will see history. Trust me, I didn’t nail it. Somebody like a Calvin Pash of Henderson, a Brian Johnson of North Penn or a Charlie Hermann of Lower Merion (I like this sleeper pick) will likely shine. The CB East juniors like Bardwell, Sands and Endres are also very interesting names. Heck, CB East is a very interesting team in general.

But I think this lack of juniors also speaks to the strength of the sophomores and freshmen (and seniors I suppose). I’ve got multiple freshman in the state qualifying window including Gavin Fitzgerald of a fun Oxford squad as my last guy in. John Zawislak of Spring Ford is one of my top swing guys in the race. I think a big day from him could be the final piece to the puzzle for Spring Ford. It’s ironic considering he hasn’t been there struggling with the other guys the past two seasons, but it’s not dissimilar to what we saw from CB East’s young guns in 2015. I’m asking a lot of this talented sophomore class with 9 projected runners in the state qualifying window. That may be a little bold, but there’s so much talent here it was hard to bet against them all. Colton Walker is my most interesting name from that group. Unionville has quite the squad on paper and Walker is now stranger to coming up big at districts. He ran under 9:30 for 3200 at districts last year as just a frosh. That put him in truly elite company and projects him as a sub 16 guy. Track ain’t XC, but Walker still feels like a star waiting to shoot across the district course.

Alright, let’s talk teams some more. CR North and DT West feel like no brainers. CR North because they are the defending champs, are going on a dozen years of qualifying in a row and have a dynamite top 4. DT West because … well … wait, maybe these guys are getting the lock treatment too soon? West has been a bit up and down this year and, although they looked awesome at Ches-monts, they didn’t blow teams out of the water at Paul Short, Tennent or Manhattan. I trust their depth and I think they have some potential stars out front (especially if Rollins is close to that 15:37 from Paul Short), but maybe they shouldn’t be a lock. But I suppose these concerns revolve more around the #2 position than anything else. I’m pretty confident they will make states, but they could be anywhere in the top 5 (including 1^st) and I don’t think I would be stunned.

The Pioneer teams are definitely the biggest wildcards. We haven’t seen a Pioneer team qualify for states (in AAA) since Perkiomen Valley did it all the way back in 2008. Spring Ford has been close, but not close enough (isn’t it fun to hear me say that over and over?).  This feels like the best this conference has been in a while. I think of 2015 which is somewhat comparable (OJR and Spring Ford were both solid that season, Phoenixville made a nice run) and nobody made it, but I think this year’s is better.

Although Spring Ford has picked up some big wins, I think I’ve been most impressed with OJR. We knew Spring Ford had potential coming in, but Roberts was a real long shot. They have a new guy surprise me every week. Honestly, they have looked like the most seasoned team of the tree in the Pioneer from a peak perspective and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are the Pioneer’s #1 squad on race day. On the flip side, they still are relatively inexperienced and maybe they won’t be ready for the breakthrough I’m projecting them to have. If they are going to make it, they will need a big day from whoever is their #2 (and probably their #3). A lot of the borderline teams have dynamic top 3s and OJR, while they have a dynamic top 1, will need to not give away much ground at the 2-3 spot.

My last team is CB West which probably is a bit controversial. I know there are plenty of Ches-mont fans on here so putting in these guys over Henderson, Shanahan, Unionville and West Chester East. But here’s the thing, CB West has quietly become an XC powerhouse. Last year, they entered the season with just 2 varsity returners, their #4 and #7 from states. Yet they produced arguably the best pack in the state, peaked at the perfect time and finished 3^rd at districts. They’ve been top 3 each of the past 3 seasons, two of which I predicted they wouldn’t make it to states. CB West’s top 4 has a chance to be one of the best in the state, they just need a big day from the #5, Andrew Gillespie, who seems poised to do that after leagues. It’s maybe a bit of a stretch, but I’ll take my chances on a team with 4 elite guys. Hopefully, I didn’t jinx them.

I don’t think I’ve ever gone 5/5 in District One since I’ve started doing these predictions. So I apologize in advance to whichever team I just jinxed out of state qualifying. But that also means I could have just jinxed one of you into state qualifying. One of the names getting buzz as of late is Penncrest. They definitely deserve some hype. They’ve got a really good top 3 that all might qualify for states. If their sophomores deliver, they are in. Meanwhile, Unionville has a ton of upside. We didn’t see what they can truly do at Ches-monts as they didn’t race their top 2 guys. But based on their 3200 results, I think they could be the surprise of the day. And hey, Boyertown was a top team for most of the season. If they regain their form, they can use a pack strategy to defeat some of these schools that don’t have as effective of a spread.

District One is absolutely loaded this year! CB East has a fantastic young core, not unlike Spring Ford in recent years, and they can barely make the preview. Haverford and Lower Merion have quietly had strong seasons. Oxford is one of my favorite storylines. Phoenixville has looked strong, especially at the top 3. CR South is a fun squad to root for in deep sleeper territory. There’s just a lot to look forward to. If you’re team finishes in even the top 20 this year for District One, you should pat yourselves on the back. It’s going to be a wild race.