2017 PIAA XC District Previews: District 7

District 7 (10/26)

A (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

1. Winchester Thurston

2. Riverview

3. Shenango

4. Eden Christian

5. OLSH

6. Avonworth

1	Tristan Forsythe	Sr	Winchester Thurston
2	Ben Barnes	Sr	Riverview
3	Adam Hessler	So	Freedom
4	Gordon Pollock	Sr	Winchester Thurston
5	Chris Kocent	Sr	OLSH
6	Matt Salem	Sr	Shenango
7	Jonas Jason	Sr	Northgate
8	Lucas Dunaway	Jr	Serra Catholic
9	Scott Routledge	So	Winchester Thurston
10	Ethan Stroebel	Sr	Mohawk
11	Patrick Malone	Fr	Winchester Thurston
12	Aiden Brewer	Sr	Greensburg CC
13	Ben Bermann	Fr	Winchester Thurston
14	Michael Komaniak	Sr	Riverview
15	Zachary Gould	Jr	Trinity Christian
16	Nick Pindel	Fr	Shenango
17	Matt Rees	So	OLSH
18	Michael Sefick	Sr	Avonworth
19	Sean Heintzleman	So	Winchester Thurston
20	Ryan Cecil	Sr	Riverview
21	Gideon Deasy	Fr	Riverview
22	John Barry	Sr	Eden Christian
23	Eric Gronbeck	So	Eden Christian
24	Ian Jackson	Jr	Neshannock
25	Matt Meakem	Fr	Sewickley
26	Jensen Lewis	Jr	Shenango
27	Donavin Meriweather	Sr	Bishop Canevin
28	Eli Pace	Sr	OLSH

A year ago, Shenango came just six points away from a state qualifying birth. Two years ago, they lost on a sixth man tiebreaker for the final spot. Each of those seasons there were three teams tightly bunched together for the final state qualifying spot. Although I feel like there’s a clear top three this time around, this still has the potential to get crazy on race day. Shenango has proven to me they have the pieces to advance. After some recent heartbreak, I’m betting on a big day from this team, mainly Matt Salem and Nick Pindel.

But a few teams are breathing down their back. Avonworth has been right beside Shenango in those two tight state qualifying battles and they were also barely denied a spot the past two seasons. This team has a solid back, holding its own with the likes of Eden Christian at Coopers with a comparable top 5. Also in the mix is Our Lady of Sacred Heart. It’s been a while since this squad was state contenders, but they flashed a very strong top 3 at Coopers. The only thing holding them back was a big drop off at the #4 and again at the #5. Well, they turned that around pretty quickly at Freedom. They added Jon Ruscoe to the equation and he ran within 30 seconds of Eli Pace. Jake Gartley also put together a nice run for insurance at the #6. They aren’t as deep as Avonworth our Eden, but they are suddenly a dangerous wildcard in the battle for the #3 spot.

I started at #3 because I’m not sure #1 and #2 will be as exciting. I’ve got Winchester Thurston claiming their second district title in a row and I’m honestly not expecting it to be that close. The key for them is getting a healthy stable of guys on the line at states. We will see what Tristan Forsythe gives us in his last XC WPIAL run. Meanwhile, I really like this Riverview team. I’ve got them as comfortably qualifying for states for a 3^rd straight year. With Michael Komanik and Ryan Cecil racing strong at Freedom, my previous concerns about this team’s peak are thrown out the window. I think these guys even have an (outside) chance of scaring Winchester Thurston for a brief second. Especially if Forsythe is out of the line up yet again.

Individually, as already alluded to, Tristan Forsythe is the man to watch. His teammate won the title a year ago meaning Tristan is still on the hunt for his first WPIAL XC gold. Forsythe, who was the top WPIAL finisher at states last year and actually led the way through two miles, has cruised in some marquee invitationals already (RWB, Foundation), but didn’t race in his team’s last trip to Coopers. He’s had an injury history in the past, but has always seemed to recover and deliver in the clutch.

Ben Barnes is on an absolute tear the last few weeks. He picked up a big early season win over Christian Fitch, but was a bit less impressive at RWB. Since then, he’s picked up a strong win at Grove City and another at Freedom. He seems confident and poised for a big stretch run.

There are lots of other top tier state medal contenders in this field, but I’ll throw out some sleeper names as well. Zach Gould of Trinity Christian is one of my favorite sleeper picks to name. I’m also very high on Lucas Dunaway from Serra Catholic.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

1. Indiana Area

2. New Castle

3. South Fayette

4. Greensburg Salem

5. Uniontown

1	Sam Snodgrass	Sr	South Fayette
2	Mark Brown	Jr	Greensburg Salem
3	Cameron Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
4	Kendall Branan	So	Indiana
5	Johnathan Asay	Sr	Freeport
6	Joey Bujdos	Jr	Indiana
7	Sam Killinger	Jr	Uniontown
8	LeShawn Huff	Sr	New Castle
9	Dylan Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
10	Colin Dunn	Sr	South Fayette
11	Dan Ford	So	Quaker Valley
12	Brendan Kopich	So	Laurel Highlands
13	Mac Polny	Jr	Montour
14	Anthony Litrenta	So	New Castle
15	Julian Yerger	So	Indiana
16	Sean Rendar	Sr	Beaver
17	Brody Carlin	Sr	Montour
18	Brett Seich	Jr	Belle Vernon
19	Austin Metts	Sr	Uniontown
20	Silas Mays	Sr	South Fayette
21	George Eggleston	Sr	New Castle
22	Evan Weaver	Sr	Indiana
23	Cameron Kutek	Sr	Uniontown
24	Colby Belcsyak	So	Riverside
25	CJ Thimons	So	Highlands
26	Josh McCoy	Jr	Freeport
27	Luke Aloi	Sr	Beaver
28	Will Lamb	Fr	Beaver

I tend to try and trust my gut when it comes to my state qualifying predictions, but the WPIAL AA race is the first time that I wavered. Ultimately, this was the hardest state qualifying prediction I’ve had to make thus far. As has been reiterated, I personally think there are four outstanding teams competing for just three state qualifying spots. There’s the defending WPIAL champions in Greensburg Salem. There’s the top returning WPIAL team in the state in South Fayette. There’s the perhaps still heartbroken New Castle team that missed states by literally a step. And then there’s the team favored to beat them all in Indiana.

What’s crazy is that Indiana has done all this thus far without Rocco Fanella, their top returner from a year ago. Joey Bujdos and Kendall Branan (could have a huge day at WPIALs) have led the team flawlessly and this pack has proven themselves at two of the biggest meets of the year: Foundation and Coopers. Julian Yerger is on fire right now and Evan Weaver is now slouch. I think Matt Berzonsky breaks through for a big day and this team rolls to the district title in a big way. Like to the point people will start looking hard at them for a big day at states.

The other three schools, I’m a bit less confident about. I’m rooting hard for New Castle after they missed out on states by just a tiebreaker last year. However, I feel like they are definitely vulnerable. They are still missing a front running presence compared to South Fayette and Greensburg Salem. They have a young core with two freshman they will heavily lean on as potential 4-5 guys. But ultimately, I feel like this team is going to come through. I think they have a ton of upside, but because they haven’t necessarily raced the big meets it’s hard to know exactly where they stack up. This is a big chance to prove themselves.

That leaves two teams that are the most accomplished of the bunch. Of course those accomplishments are based on last year. They won’t count for anything other than back of the mind confidence on race day. And Greensburg Salem should have that confidence. The past two seasons they have made states by using the same basic strategy they are likely planning this year. Have a big performance from your top 3 and then lean on your 4-5 to bring it home. In 2015, their #5 guys were 51^st and 73^rd in team scoring and they still ended up 7 points out of second. Last year the 4-5 hit 16^th and 32^nd which helped them drop just 67 points. I think this team is probably more in line with the 2015 version than the 2016 version as things currently stand, but that would still get you into states.

However, I lean toward the South Fayette boys. They have yet to really prove that they are ready to jump Greensburg Salem. GS beat SF at Foundation earlier this September by a comfortable margin. However, I feel like Fayette is starting to piece it together. Colin Dunn is racing phenomenally right now and they will need him to deliver alongside teammate and speedster Silas Mays. Then it comes down to a battle between the #5 runners. I’m trusting South Fayette, a team that was 3^rd in the state with a lot of similar pieces last year, to run clutch when it counts and advance. But this battle should be thrilling.

Individually, things are set up to be another South Fayette vs. Greensburg Salem battle. The top returner from a year ago is actually Mark Brown, not Sam Snodgrass who has dominated the WPIAL landscape thus far in 2017. Snodgrass was the top AA runner at Coopers, one of the top returners at states and is very experienced against top notch competition. Brown (and his teammate Cameron Binda) have not been as strong as Snodgrass in the marquee invites, but they have thrown down some dominant performances of their own. Brown and Binda have traded off the top spot seemingly each week with Binda taking the title last time out. I’d be surprised to see anyone break up this trio at the top of the field just as we expected Skolnekovich, Bumgarner and Pfeil to run away with things last season.

However, there’s a long list of guys waiting to take their shot at the top 10. Montour has a sneaky good 1-2 punch in Mac Polny and Brody Carlin. They had a pair of state qualifiers last year as well. Dan Ford, the sophomore from Quaker Valley, is an intriguing prospect after a big race last year on this stage. Will Lamb hasn’t raced in a number of weeks and is likely injured, but when healthy this frosh was one of the best in the state and would certainly be in the state qualifying mix.

AAA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

1. Seneca Valley

2. North Allegheny

3. Mount Lebanon

4. Butler

5. Pittsburgh CC

1	Noah Beveridge	Sr	Butler
2	Dan McGoey	So	North Allegheny
3	Sam Owori	Jr	Seneca Valley
4	Brett Brady	Sr	Butler
5	Christian Fitch	So	Fox Chapel
6	Seth Ketler	Jr	Seneca Valley
7	Czar Tarr	Sr	Chartiers Valley
8	Max Steffey	Sr	Pitts CC
9	Sam Gatti	Sr	Pitts CC
10	Zachary Leachman	So	Mars
11	Patrick Anderson	So	Mount Lebanon
12	Connor Volk-Klas	Jr	Seneca Valley
13	John Folkerts	Sr	Fox Chapel
14	Zack Marmol	So	Peters Township
15	Matt Busche	Sr	Franklin Regional
16	Peter Cosentino	Jr	Mount Lebanon
17	Joey Buehner	Jr	North Hills
18	Cam Phillips	Sr	North Allegheny
19	Robert O'Brien	Jr	USC
20	Mark Golebiewski	Sr	Chartiers Valley
21	Joe Cafaro	Jr	Hampton
22	Alex Dixon	Sr	Seneca Valley
23	Calvin Dziewulski	Jr	Hempfield
24	Josiah Wudwych	So	Canon-McMillan
25	Bryce Brandenstein	Sr	Mount Lebanon
26	Stephen Nalepa	So	North Allegheny
27	Luke Turkovich	Jr	North Allegheny
28	Damon Gall	Sr	Canon-McMillan
29	Antonio Burkhardt	So	Bethel Park
30	Alex Jubert	Fr	Norwin
31	Joey Artinger	Sr	West Allegheny
32	Aden Dressler	Jr	Butler
33	Nick Gabrielli	Sr	Kiski
34	Alex Brokaw	Jr	Mount Lebanon
35	Mike Dolgos	Sr	Pine Richland

Noah Beveridge has been on another level thus far and is set up for a potential state championship run in Hershey. In order to get that gold, he will first have to navigate the WPIAL championships. Beveridge is the fastest guy across the Coopers surface in a number of years, edging closer to the likes of Footlocker Finalists Zach Hebda, Ryan Gil, Rad Gunzenhauser and Brent Kennedy. Each of those guys had a bit more competition than Beveridge has had to date, but perhaps Sam Owori, Dan McGoey or another challenger is ready to step up and push the Butler senior to the line this week.

Although many will be watching the clock to see what Beveridge can run, he and his teammates will be watching a different set of numbers. Butler, who qualified for states a year ago in a bit of a surprise finish in third place. I likely don’t need to tell my Butler fans, but I had them 6^th in the standings that year during my prediction post. Butler went on to take 3^rd and topple those I set up as their equals. This time around they face a much more formidable trio with Seneca Valley, Mount Lebanon and the always dangerous North Allegheny slotted ahead of them. Butler will have a clutch 1-2 punch to lean on in Beveridge and Brady, but then things become a bit less clear. A return from Aden Dressler would go a long way towards a return to states, but Butler will also need a #4 and #5 runner to step up as the packs ahead of them are very deep.

Although Seneca Valley is likely the best team in the district, the most compelling team is Mount Lebanon. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance this season that make them state contenders and yet I can’t help but be nervous as they approach the district championship. I think there’s a chance that this team is staying home next weekend. Although they looked terrific at Coopers two weeks ago, they have a checkered history in the course. Let’s see if they are ready to change history this week.

Ironically, Seneca Valley was that team who changed history just a year ago when they usurped North Allegheny for the district title. It was the first in a long time for a school that wasn’t the Tigers.  Those same Tigers are looming as a dangerous sleeper team right now heading into WPIALs. They are one step up performance away from turning heads and their top dog has the chance to put up a truly special performance for a sophomore in either of the next two weeks.