2017 PIAA XC District Previews: District 3

District 3 (10/28)

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

1. York Catholic

2. Kutztown

3. Delone Catholic

4. Tulephocken

1	Brendan Miller	Sr	Upper Dauphin
2	Adler Brininger	So	Delone Catholic
3	Evan Schlossler	Sr	York Catholic
4	Jacob Cox	Sr	Tulephocken
5	Evan Smetak	Jr	Harrisburg Christian
6	Christian Gervasi	Jr	York Catholic
7	Mitchell Brett	Fr	Kutztown
8	Neil Martin	Jr	Veritas
9	John Cox	Sr	Tulephocken
10	Alex Rosenberry	Jr	West Shore
11	John Whitcomb	So	Fairfield
12	Michael Hill	Jr	Kutztown
13	Gabe Hall	Jr	Delone Catholic
14	Ryan Corbitt	Jr	York Catholic
15	Matthew Angstadt	Sr	Kutztown
16	Shamus Keefe	Sr	Delone Catholic
17	Andrew Glover	Fr	Fairfield
18	Jason Bryce	Sr	Covenant Christian
19	Matt Gurgiolo	So	Camp Hill
20	Joseph Rizzuto	Fr	York Catholic
21	Phillip Rodig	Jr	Tulephocken

Brendan Miller of Upper Dauphin hasn’t raced much this year, but when he has, the results have been excellent. The Upper Dauphin senior rolled to the victory against the small school runners at Big Spring and also picked up a time of 15:40 at the Carlisle Invite. He’s a clear favorite to repeat as A champ, but, more importantly, he wants to set himself up to take a shot at Winchester Thurston’s title favorite Tristan Forsythe in a weeks’ time.

Behind Miller it’s a relatively open field although I lean towards sophomore Adler Brininger of Delone Catholic. I think he could impress in this meet and drop a fast time. Another freshman to watch is Kutztown’s talented newcomer Mitchell Brett. But the seniors are always dangerous in a championship setting. That’s why I’ve got Evan Schlossler and Jacob Cox in my top 5. I’m a little nervous about Schlossler because I didn’t see his name in the league results, but I’m hoping he comes back with some fire at this meet. If he is absent, Christian Gervasi will be the guy to step up and take his place.

Schlossler’s impact will not only be felt in the individual contest. His York Catholic team, who established themselves as District favorites at Big Spring and Foundation, was missing a few key cogs at their league meet and look vulnerable for the first time. What was once an easy pick for the championship is becoming a bit more questionable. I think Kutztown had a great league meet and seem to have one of the better packs. They matched up really well against Tulephocken at Berks and they are defending state qualifiers. Delone Catholic is another interesting pick who always seems to come up clutch at the right moments.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

1. York Suburban

2. Wyomissing

3. Milton Hershey

4. Lancaster Mennonite

5. Big Spring

1	Bryce Ohl	Sr	York Suburban
2	Jarrett Raudensky	Jr	York Suburban
3	Joe Cullen	Sr	Wyomissing
4	Logan Horst	Jr	Lancaster Mennonite
5	Ben Kuhn	So	Wyomissing
6	Matt Driben	Sr	Wyomissing
7	Ben Reisenweaver	Sr	Schuylkill Valley
8	Nathan Yoder	Jr	Lancaster Mennonite
9	Abenezear Abebe	Sr	Lancaster Mennonite
10	Caeden Smith	Jr	East Pennsboro
11	Luis Guyton-Acevedo	Sr	Milton Hershey
12	Luke Milhimes	Sr	Gettysburg
13	Ishmael Kirkwood	Jr	Big Spring
14	Rafael Mendez	Sr	Milton Hershey
15	Chad Long	Sr	Bermudian Springs
16	Will Bucher	Jr	Trinity
17	Josh Kerr	Sr	York Suburban
18	Bradley Filler	Sr	Gettysburg
19	Jacob Hammaker	Sr	Susquenita
20	Josh Diehl	Jr	Wyomissing
21	Jordan Ohl	So	York Suburban
22	Silas Buckwalter	Sr	Donegal
23	Levi Hayle	Jr	Hamburg
24	Miles McCaskey	Sr	Lancaster Catholic
25	Andrew Hirneisen	So	Gettysburg
26	Andrew Paskey	Jr	York Suburban
27	Ryan Vargo	Jr	Wyomissing
28	Quinten Collinge	Jr	Fleetwood
29	Thomas Foster	So	Wyomissing
30	Wyatt Conrad	Sr	Hamburg
31	Van Wirebach	Jr	Conrad Weiser
32	Collin Wolf	Fr	Kennard-Dale
33	Gary Waters	Jr	Milton Hershey
34	Tanner Haynes	Sr	York Suburban
35	Mitchell Gray	So	ELCO

This race will be thrilling. I can’t wait for the York Suburban-Wyomissing match up. As some of you math nerds may have noticed, my individual picks don’t necessarily line up with my team ones. I’m already hedging my bets here as my gut says York Suburban will be your champ, but my brain says Wyomissing. Overall, I’m leaning on the history of YS’s success in these type of moments to make my prediction. I’ve burned a bit by that philosophy so far this week, but I’m cool with being wrong this week if it means I’m right next week at states. That’s really the most important part of this battle. The winner of Wyomissing vs. York Suburban may very well be the state title favorite. I expect both teams to advance and I’ll plenty more to say on this topic in a week.

I think Milton Hershey is also a virtual lock to advance. They won at Big Spring earlier this year, looked solid at Carlisle and were qualifiers a year ago. I honestly can’t find many others who seem likely to knock them off. Lancaster Mennonite has a lethal top 3, but will they have enough at 4-5? Big Spring has a potential top 10 guy in Kirkwood and home field advantage, but is that enough? Those two schools jumped out, but ultimately I think Milton Hershey locks up the third spot.

Individually, the defending champion Joe Cullen will be looking for vengeance after a disappointing league championship performance. Cullen lost to a couple of his own teammates last week, but he’s got the pedigree and resume to flip back to a front runner this weekend. Plus those teammates he lost to are pretty good. Wyomissing has two other guys who I expect to compete for the win in Kuhn and Driben, plus a great pack of guys who, on the right day, could sneak into the top 10-12. But the York Suburban 1-2 punch of Ohl and Raudensky should be up for the challenge. These two were right behind Cullen at districts a year ago while Ohl actually bested Cullen at states. Raudensky is in the midst of a sophomore to junior jump that has resulted in some big improvements, including a special 16:07 at Carlisle.

As mentioned previously, the Lancaster Mennonite trio will make noise. Leading that group is Logan Horst, the AA champion from Big Spring. His training partners Yoder and Abebe should also be under 17 minutes on this layout and could be in the mix for the top 5. In terms of individual sleepers, I really like Caeden Smith of East Pennsboro as a contender. Ben Reisenweaver of Schuylkill Valley is another guy I could see excelling. A little deeper down the sleeper list, watch for Gettysburg’s big three to each make a run at a state qualifying spot.

AAA (4 Teams, 20 Individuals)

1. Carlisle

2. Twin Valley

3. Hempfield

4. Cumberland Valley

5. Mechanicsburg

6. Palmyra

7. Wilson

8. Hershey

1	Morgan Cupp	Sr	Mechanicsburg
2	Jake Underwood	Sr	Wilson
3	Christian Groff	Sr	Hempfield
4	Evan Kreider	Jr	Cocalico
5	Andrew Foster	Jr	Ephrata
6	Brandan Knepper	Jr	Mechanicsburg
7	Jack Wisner	Jr	Carlisle
8	Alex Ermold	Jr	Governor Mifflin
9	Dylan Servis	Jr	Twin Valley
10	Evan Dorenkamp	Jr	Manheim Township
11	Jared Giannascoli	Sr	Lower Dauphin
12	Ian Miller	Jr	Manheim Township
13	Andrew Brown	Sr	Cumberland Valley
14	Andrew Sullivan	Sr	Hershey
15	Matt Carroll	So	Palmyra
16	Chris Scharf	Sr	Elizabethtown
17	Chase Knorr	Sr	Twin Valley
18	Drew Barefield	Sr	Carlisle
19	Max Lessans	Sr	Hempfield
20	Casey Padgett	So	Carlisle
21	David Merkey	Sr	Manheim Central
22	Michael Vigliano	Jr	Mechanicsburg
23	Zach Murray	Sr	Daniel Boone
24	Bryce Gable	Sr	Dallastown
25	Cade Rush	Sr	Carlisle
26	Noah Martin	Jr	Warwick
27	Adam Wolfe	Sr	Cedar Crest
28	Josiah Helmer	Jr	Lower Dauphin
29	Trentin Overcash	Jr	Chambersburg
30	Mark Walsh	So	Lower Dauphin
31	Dylan Becker	Jr	Cocalico
32	Jake Barrett	So	Cedar Crest
33	Timmy Buzynski	Sr	Central York
34	Jakolby Fackler	Fr	Palmyra
35	Nick Demario	Jr	Cumberland Valley
36	Griffin Schlegel	So	Twin Valley

Last year, the District 3 championships were crazy. We expected the team race to be wild and it delivered. Manheim Central and Mechanicsburg knocked off Cumberland Valley and Hempfield for the last two state qualifying spots, proving that the powerhouses that had dominated the district were indeed made up of humans. Now, in 2017, the powers are back on their ascent. Hempfield and Cumberland Valley lead the bubble contenders while Mechanicsburg is joined by a young (like super young) Palmyra team in the Cinderella category. Even teams like Hershey and Chambersburg have shown flashes of qualifying potential. Personally, I think Palmyra is just too young to duplicate their fantastic run at Mid Penns on this stage. As for Mechanicsburg, I’m a little worried about their 4-5 punch.  Their top three are great, but I don’t expect them to be quite as dominant as they were at Mid Penns. Combine that with a deeper field overall and I think they are vulnerable.

That being said, Hempfield and Cumberland Valley are no locks. They were left home in 2016 and if they don’t run to their full potential, they will be watching the 2017 state meet as well. I think Cumberland Valley might be the deepest through 7 in the whole field which gives me confidence that they can survive any off days. Hempfield has a reliable front runner (Groff) who should compete for gold and also can lean on Max Lessans, a state qualifier last year. I’m a little bit more concerned about Hempfield than CV, but Hempfield also has a nice history of district championships in recent years including 2014 and 2015.

The top two teams to me are Twin Valley and Carlisle. Twin Valley has had a terrific season, consistently improving despite the absence of a “house hold name”. They aren’t bringing back a slew of guys with state qualifying experience, but they do return a core of competitive, hardworking guys who can rotate through key positions in the top 5. They beat DT West not too long ago and they should be feeling good about themselves. I especially like the season Dylan Servis has put together, but Chase Knorr has shown flashes of upset as well.

Personally, I’m really high on this Carlisle team. I think this could be a top five team in the state. Historically, this team has peaked pretty well for the big meets. They return a couple guys who got to experience what it was like to be on a truly elite squad last year, one of which will likely be their #5 guy at states. That’s a critical spot, especially for this team. I want to see what this top 4 has, particularly sophomore Casey Padgett. If those guys are clicking, I think very few teams in the state will be able to match up man for man with the Herd.

Individually, the clear favorite is Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg. The kid came into the season as essentially the last surviving member of the legendary D3 armada that took the state by storm in 2016. Cupp ran under 15:30 at Carlisle and broke 16 minutes at Mid Penns which means he’s clearly fit. In those two meets, he faced most of his toughest competition he can expect to see at this meet so it’s hard to pick against him. That being said, Hempfield’s Christian Groff wasn’t at either of those meets. He ran 15:40 at Paul Short and he won at Lebanon-Lancaster leagues (probably flipped those, I always do). Maybe he can push Cupp this weekend.

Personally, I think the challenge is more likely to come from Wilson’s Jake Underwood. He also won at his league championship, beating a solid Berks field. Underwood was sub 16 at Carlisle (although a good margin behind Cupp), but he also dropped a silver medal worthy performance on the district course to start out the season. Maybe that performance could give him some extra confidence.

The real long shots for the title are Andrew Foster and Evan Kreider. These juniors have each shown flashes of big potential. Kreider won the Big Spring Invite on this course to start his season, announcing himself as a star. Since then, he hasn’t quite lived up to that potential, but maybe that’s just what he needed to take the pressure off on race day. As for Foster, the kid almost knocked off Groff at Lancaster Lebanons just a few weeks after he almost broke 16 at Carlisle. After a couple almosts, I think he could put it all together this weekend with a top 2 finish at districts.

In terms of deeper sleepers, I’ll be watching to see if Evan Dorenkamp is back in action. He hasn’t raced since the first Big Spring meet, but he had a similar schedule last year. If he is back, the junior from Manheim should contend for a spot in the top 5. I’m also going to be keeping an eye on the Lower Dauphin trio. This is a program that tends to show up at this meet and usually has a couple guys in the top 10. David Merkey from Manheim Central is another guy further down the performance list who may make noise. He was a top 50 finisher at states last year in a big breakthrough. Clearly, he’s got some talent. He lost his crew of training partners from last year’s state qualifying squad, but maybe there’s still a little bit of Manheim Central magic left on the Big Spring course.