Etrain's District Predictions by the Numbers
|
|
A |
AA |
|
|
Team |
Individual |
Team |
Individual |
| District |
1 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
3 |
5 |
60% |
1 |
1 |
100% |
4 |
5 |
80% |
| District |
2 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
2 |
2 |
100% |
6 |
10 |
60% |
| District |
3 |
2 |
2 |
100% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
3 |
3 |
100% |
12 |
15 |
80% |
| District |
4 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
1 |
2 |
50% |
7 |
10 |
70% |
| District |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0% |
3 |
5 |
60% |
1 |
1 |
100% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
| District |
6 |
1 |
2 |
50% |
7 |
10 |
70% |
1 |
1 |
100% |
4 |
5 |
80% |
| District |
7 |
3 |
3 |
100% |
11 |
15 |
73% |
2 |
3 |
67% |
11 |
15 |
73% |
| District |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| District |
9 |
1 |
2 |
50% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
1 |
1 |
100% |
4 |
5 |
80% |
| District |
10 |
2 |
2 |
100% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
2 |
2 |
100% |
7 |
10 |
70% |
| District |
11 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
4 |
5 |
80% |
1 |
2 |
50% |
6 |
10 |
60% |
| District |
12 |
2 |
2 |
100% |
7 |
10 |
70% |
1 |
2 |
50% |
9 |
10 |
90% |
|
|
15 |
18 |
83% |
69 |
90 |
77% |
16 |
20 |
80% |
75 |
100 |
75% |
|
|
AAA |
All Classes |
|
|
Team |
Individual |
Team |
Individual |
| District |
1 |
4 |
5 |
80% |
19 |
25 |
76% |
6 |
7 |
86% |
26 |
35 |
74% |
| District |
2 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
4 |
4 |
100% |
16 |
20 |
80% |
| District |
3 |
3 |
4 |
75% |
15 |
20 |
75% |
8 |
9 |
89% |
35 |
45 |
78% |
| District |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
67% |
12 |
15 |
80% |
| District |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
50% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
| District |
6 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
3 |
4 |
75% |
16 |
20 |
80% |
| District |
7 |
2 |
3 |
67% |
11 |
15 |
73% |
7 |
9 |
78% |
33 |
45 |
73% |
| District |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| District |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
67% |
12 |
15 |
80% |
| District |
10 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
2 |
5 |
40% |
5 |
5 |
100% |
17 |
25 |
68% |
| District |
11 |
2 |
2 |
100% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
4 |
5 |
80% |
18 |
25 |
72% |
| District |
12 |
2 |
2 |
100% |
8 |
10 |
80% |
5 |
6 |
83% |
24 |
30 |
80% |
|
|
16 |
19 |
84% |
73 |
95 |
77% |
47 |
57 |
82% |
217 |
285 |
76% |
what does this mean? A little detail please.
ReplyDeleteAdmigtedlybin my haste to put it up, I did miss some rather important explanation. Basically this is meant to show how accurate my district predictions from this past week ended up being. So for example, in D1 AAA, I got 4/5 teams and 19/25 individuals. Overall in the district I got 26/35. Just to show if my posts are worth looking at
DeleteThank you. Also, are you preparing for a job in Vegas? lol
Deleteanyone interested in detailing their top 25 individuals while we wait for Jarrett's list?
ReplyDelete1. Kujdych
Delete2. Beveridge
3. Hoey
4. Cupp
5. Addison
6. Campbell
7. Smucker
8. Conway
9. Wirth
10. Etter
11. McGoey
12. Koza
13. Schultz
14. Owori
15. Ketler
16. Rollins
17. Cramer
18. O'Toole
19. Lederer
20. Kreider
21. Sewall
22. Davis
23. Earley
24. Burke
25. Wisner
As an Assist, here is the Current Season Best results:
ReplyDeleteRANK TIME Athlete
1 15:01.0 RUSTY KUJDYCH
2 15:08.0 LIAM CONWAY
3 15:12.0 JOSH HOEY
4 15:21.0 EVAN ADDISON
4 15:21.0 CARLOS SHULTZ
6 15:24.0 MORGAN CUPP
6 15:24.0 TYLER WIRTH
8 15:27.9 NOAH BEVERIDGE
9 15:28.0 RYAN CAMPBELL
10 15:30.7 DANIEL MCGOEY
11 15:33.0 CZAR TARR
11 15:33.0 ETHAN KOZA
13 15:35.4 SAM OWORI
14 15:37.0 TYLER ROLLINS
15 15:39.0 RILEY WILLIAMSON
16 15:40.0 CHRISTIAN GROFF
17 15:43.2 MITCHELL ETTER
18 15:43.7 AVERY LEDERER
19 15:44.0 KEVIN EHRGOTT
19 15:44.0 SPENCER SMUCKER
19 15:44.0 BRENDAN O'TOOLE
22 15:44.4 SETH KETLER
23 15:44.5 TAVONNE DAVIS
24 15:45.0 ALEXANDER ERMOLD
25 15:47.7 CHRISTIAN FITCH
This gets tough when you generally only focus on your own district. Thank you Jarrett!
ReplyDeleteThose are some impressive Etrain numbers on the predictions across the state and classifications. Another set of numbers that really jumped out at me from D1 that were from Ryan Doherty of Shanahan. If my math is close, at the 2 mile he was at 11:13 in 160th place. Shanahan as a team was 7th, 28 points behind then 5th place CBE. Doherty went from 160th to 103Rd and 16:56 at the finish. He passed 57 runners after the 2 mile. He went from 5:36 pace to close in probably under 5:10. That’s pretty much unheard of for teams in the running for states, they usually get after it, go out strong and then try to hold on. I don’t know if that’s Doherty’s usual style but whatever it was, he really delivered in the last mile. The Hoey brothers ran great, McGrory and Ettien ran strong but Doherty in that last mile was the difference to get them through to states.
ReplyDelete- RJJL
82% on teams and 76% on individuals is very impressive. Are these records for you? Also, if you had someone qualifying as part of a team but their team didn't make it and they qualified individually instead (or vice versa), how is that scored?
ReplyDeleteLast year I went about 71% on both. I don’t remember the year before that, but I think it was even worse so I’m getting the hang of this thing! In cases where I missed a team, I would readjust who my at large qualifiers as if I had gotten the right team. I thought this was the most reasonable way to do it otherwise you are doing weird cross referencing. Fortunately I did decently with the teams so I didn’t have to do that much of this.
DeleteAny classification mix ups I didn’t fix. So Garrett Baublitz in AA when I had him in A was a killer as he counted against me twice. Didn’t think that would be fair to change something like that.
How about Butler? A huge upset in the D7.
ReplyDeleteI know! Add them to the state title discussion, I mean there's room for 1 more, right?:)
DeleteEtrain touched on it in the recap, but Robbie Hays deserves MVP of the meet. Or like a Silver Star or something. IMO, he's the reason they're sending 7 to Hershey. 2 weeks ago, he ran 18:02 at Mack Cooper (essentially this same course). But at districts, he goes sub-17, top 20 overall, and even lost a few seconds by falling just before the line. Truly a gutsy performance. That's a monumental turnaround, and of course it comes at the perfect time. Gotta respect that. I know a lot of Butler guys read this blog, so shout out to you for an awesome performance. I think you'll be a trendy sleeper pick at Hershey.
-Jiminy Cricket
Who was more clutch, Doherty from Shanahan or Hays from Butler?
DeleteD1 ended up being slightly underwhelming. The cutoff time ended up being 16:23, a little slower than the past two years. However, I think that can be attributed to a slow early pace, and a decent amount of wind. I thought after the top 3 teams, I was a little disappointed. However, Spring Ford ran very well at Foundation, so as it has already been said, I think Spring Ford is poised for a big bounce back next week. Shanahan will struggle, because their only path into the top 5 was their low sticks in the Hoeys. In a smaller race, where the inexperience of their back end will show on a harder course, I see them struggling. Which is a shame, because I really think a team like Boyertown could challenge to be top 5 in AAA, but were once again battered down in the competitiveness that is D1 AAA. My favorite matchup to watch by far is gonna be Wirth vs Shultz. No relative young guns (Shultz a sophomore, Wirth in his first year of XC) who have been overshadowed by other studs. But they were 5th and 6th at Paul Short, and only seem to be getting better. I could see these guys battling it out with Conway for 4th behind the top 3 of Kujdych, Beveridge, and Hoey. Also, Seneca Valley are going to be state champions. I say that with confidence.
ReplyDeleteThe course ran about 10-15 seconds slow due to the mud.
DeleteCan we talk about CB East for a second? Their finish reminds me so much of WCH's amazing district breakthrough from last year, going from just outside top ten in the district to being thirty points away from a berth at states. Two amazing performances from Alex Bardwell and Owen Zila who I don't believe finished in the top four for East at any of their invites. What stands out to me most about this team though is how young they are. Five of their top seven are returning next year including normal number one David Endres who seemed to have an off day at the meet. Could East make a combeback next year similar to their one from 2015? Coming out of nowhere to just miss states by a small margin and then returning the next season with a vengeance. I think so, three of the current team members were on that 2015 squad and they certainly have the drive to do it.
ReplyDeleteI feel like this team doesn't get nearly enough attention as it deserves and I am really excited to see how they do next season as they develop even further.
i was pretty surprised by their performance as well, esp. compared with how they dropped off last season after september. Endress has been really up and down, which i think hurts this team a bit. they need some consistency between races.
Deletethat being said, i think CBE set themselves up similar to a spring ford squad. returning a hand full of juniors after a 6th place finish in district 1. i've usually considered both CB west and CB east more track squads (esp. 4x8) rather than XC power houses. this being said, CB west has proved me wrong over the past few seasons (albeit they had a poor district race this year as a squad), and perhaps CB east could pull it together.
certainly the district 1 team race will be fairly open next year. i doubt Henderson and CR North will make it to states based on who is graduating from each squad (going back to 1997 i can't find a time when CRN did not return at least 1 sub 17 runner). OJR and Spring Ford are also taking big hits...
Just sayin, Oxford got a little bit of hype this year, and their entire top 5 comes back next year...
Delete