So new
league meets are happening every day to the point where, by the time you leave
this, it will already likely be outdated. But, hey, I figured I would give it a
go anyway. This is the list as of Wednesday at 9:12 AM. Exactly that time. Not
a minute more or a minute less. Got it?
I
should also mention this will be the last Top 50 list until after the state
meet is finished up. From this point forward it will be purely predictions.
Next week is district prediction week and the following week will be state
prediction week. Then I get married. So it’s a busy time. For those of you who
like fantasy drafts, be on the look-out for another edition of the state XC
draft.
We will
be running it back in the same anonymous format we used last year so you can
sign up starting today if you would like. More information on that to come when
we get closer to the big day. The state meet, not the wedding. Should I be
calling something not the wedding the big day? Probably not. Let’s just keep
this between us.
50. Owen Isham, Jr State College (6
AAA)
49. Chayce Macknair, Jr Mifflin
County (6 AAA)
I like
both of these guys ability to peak at the right time. Expect them to be close by
one another the next couple weeks. That could be good news for Macknair as
Isham was a top 50 finisher in the state a year ago.
48. Ben Hoyer, Sr Wissahickon (1
AAA)
47. Brett Brady, Sr Butler (7 AAA)
46. Zack Forney, Sr Ridley (1 AAA)
Seems
like Forney should be higher on this list. Either he should be higher or
Lederer should be lower I suppose considering they have been next to one
another. Really rooting for Forney to make it to his first XC state meet. He’s
earned it with an awesome, consistent season.
45. Bryce Ohl, Sr York Suburban (3
AAA)
44. Jack Wisner, Jr Carlisle (3
AAA)
43. Dylan Servis, Jr Twin Valley (3
AAA)
This
guy is long overdue for a shout on the list. If he had popped a bigger result
at Carlisle, he would have probably carved out a nice spot weekly spot for
himself in the 30s. Really strong runner on a good team. Those types are always
dangerous. When’s the last time Twin Valley had a state medalist in XC? Might
be November, 2017 …
42. Ethan Hermann, Sr Allderdice (8
AAA)
41. Evan Kreider, Jr Cocalico (3
AAA)
40. Andrew Foster, Jr Ephrata (3
AAA)
Big
last two races from Foster. He nearly knocked off Groff and race awesome in the
champion’s race at Carlisle. Ephrata has had a Top 50 finisher in the state
each of the past three seasons. Foster could definitely keep that streak going
for another couple years.
39. Payton Sewall, Jr DT West (1
AAA)
38. Jason Cornelison, Jr Cheltenham
(1 AAA)
37. Tavonne Davis, Sr Allderdice (8
AAA)
36. Quinn Serfass, Sr Loyalsock (4
AA)
35. Alex Ermold, Jr Governor
Mifflin (3 AAA)
34. Vincent Twomey, So LaSalle (12
AAA)
33.
Michael Samson, Sr CB West (1 AAA)
32. Patrick Anderson, So Mount
Lebanon (7 AAA)
I can’t
think of a proper adjective to decide how huge Anderson’s race this past
weekend was. His run at Coopers was transformative for Lebo. If he duplicates
that or, dare I say, continues to improve at this rate, he is going to do big
things. He was knocking on the door of Dan McGoey, a guy who has spent some
time in the top 10 of my rankings. Lebo needs a front runner like him to win
the state title (which they definitely could win). Hopefully, he drags
Costentino and Brandenstein up with him. Then things are really looking up. On
the flip, I’d like to see him duplicate this once more to slot him in state
medal position.
31.
Jacob McKenna, Sr Spring Ford (1 AAA)
30. Peter
Borger, Sr Malvern Prep (Independent)
29.
Andrew Healey, So Holy Cross (2 A)
28. Seth Ketler, Jr Seneca Valley
(7 AAA)
27. Jack Miller, Jr Jenkintown (1
A)
This
isn’t about Miller, but I want to say this about the Jenkintown team. They are really
good. Like this is a strong A squad that we should probably talk about more in
the state title mix. I know they didn’t topple Thurston or Penns Valley at
Foundation, but those teams have at least a tiny bit of questions surrounding them.
Ultimately, the title race may come down to which frosh rise to the moment. Two
frosh in the top 5 for all three of those teams. Elk CC two sophs of
importance. Montrose the deepest and oldest, but is that enough? Shout out to
A! It’s going to be a fun championship.
26.
Brendan O’Toole, Sr North Penn (1 AAA)
25. Brandan Knepper, Jr
Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)
Very
high on this kid. Last year, the Mid Penn was absolutely loaded. This year it’s
weaker certainly, but it’s still a force to be reckoned with and Knepper was 3rd
in this league. He, Cupp and really the whole Mechanicsburg squad have had a
strong, consistent improvement curve. I’m in.
24. Riley Williamson, Jr Parkland
(11 AAA)
23. Jake Underwood, Sr Wilson (3
AAA)
22. Christian Groff, Sr Hempfield
(3 AAA)
If you
are looking for someone to upset Cupp at District 3 (or at least give him a
good race), I would think these are the top two guys on the list. I lean
towards Underwood actually having the better result at the district meet, but
Groff posting his 15:40 at Paul Short turned my head.
21.
Jonah Powell, Jr Grove City (10 AA)
20. Jack Zardecki, Sr Dallas (2 AA)
He’s
got one of the fastest times in the state for AA runners. Holds two XC state
medals. Is a part of the reigning XC team champs. Rolled through a strong field
yesterday. When should we start hyping Zardecki for a potential individual
state title in AA? Apparently, right now.
19. Brendan
Miller, Sr Upper Dauphin (3 A)
18. Sam Owori, Jr Seneca Valley (7
AAA)
Big race
this weekend. Second at Coopers ahead of McGoey and Snodgrass and only behind
Beveridge is big time. If this is a sign of things to come, Owori will likely
finish the year Top 5 in the state. The battle for top junior at states should
be fun.
17. Avery Lederer, Sr Penncrest (1
AAA)
Lederer
is the biggest mystery to me among the current crop of top guys. He didn’t race
Foundation, Carlisle, or Paul Short. He did quite well at PTXC (#3 PA behind only Rusty and Tyler Wirth), he
was strong last year and he’s beaten everyone he’s faced in recent weeks.
Districts will be very interesting. I think he pops a big time, something like
Matt D’Aquila’s performance last year for a similarly hopeful Lower Merion
state bid.
16. Dan McGoey, So North Allegheny
(7 AAA)
15. Sam Snodgrass, Sr South Fayette
(7 AAA)
Two
head to head races decided by less than a second. Seems like these guys may
belong with one another on the list.
14. Mitchell Etter, Sr State
College (6 AAA)
13.
Ethan Koza, Sr CR North (1 AAA)
12. Evan Addison, Sr LaSalle (12
AAA)
11.
Tristan Forsythe, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)
10. Spencer Smucker, Sr Henderson
(1 AAA)
9. Ryan
Campbell, Sr CR North (1 AAA)
8.
Tyler Wirth, Jr Wallenpaupack (2 AAA)
7.
Carlos Shultz, So Phoenixville (1 AAA)
6. Morgan Cupp, Sr Mechanicsburg (3
AAA)
5. Josh Hoey, Sr Bishop Shanahan (1
AAA)
4. Liam
Conway, Sr Owen J Roberts (1 AAA)
I don’t
feel like I have a great read on this tier. It’s pretty loaded up through the
top 20 guys on the list which means the top 15 or so spots at AAA states will
be absolute madness. I’m not looking forward to those state predictions (who am
I kidding, of course I am).
3. Isaac Davis, Sr Jersey Shore (4
AA)
2. Noah Beveridge, Sr Butler (7
AAA)
1. Rusty Kujdych, Sr Neshaminy (1
AAA)
Three
really impressive performances from this past weekend. These guys are clearly
elite as they put all-time type marks on their respective courses. Davis is the
only PA guy to (indirectly) top Kujdych this season. Beveridge is a seasoned,
prime time performer. Rusty is absurd. He’s putting together one of the best
seasons we’ve seen from a non-reigning state champ (I count Affolder as a
reigning state champ). We’ve been spoiled by Russell, Brophy, Affolder the last
five years. These kind of talents don’t come along every year. But apparently
they do because Rusty is putting up times that get him into the conversation
with those guys.
And
yet, I think the AAA state champ predictions will be fairly evenly distributed
between Beveridge and Kujdych (with possibly a few other names getting thrown
in there). Maybe I’m overestimating people’s preferences, but it’s just the
vibe I get from the readership.
I guess
we will see …
Thing will start to fall into place with League Championships this week. Then we get to exciting District Championships. Can't wait to see what your week 8 predictions. Thank you for your perspective.
ReplyDeleteDTW looked fantastic at Chestmonts. They didn't take any chances this year.
ReplyDeleteAt Chesmonts today Smucker looked real strong. Lewin was solid, the freshman from Oxford was really good, Dusseau from Avon Grove was a surprise, McGrory from Shanahan had a big day. On the team side Oxford was a shocker and Dwest looks like the only Chesmont team getting through to states this year.
ReplyDeleteI am shocked about an omission that should should be in your top 30 or 40. Czar Tarr (Chartiers Calley) should be on the list. He just ran a 16:02 at Mingo last night and won by 36 seconds. You are dumping him based on an awful Mack Cooper Run. Look at the rest of his races. 3 seconds behind Sam Snodgrass at Red, White and Blue with a time faster than Tristan Forsythe. He will definitely be top 5 at WPIALs and most likely on the stand at states.
ReplyDeleteIt's easy to say something like this after he had a good race. You're right in that his RWB race was impressive, but that was 6 weeks ago. Let's do as you say and "look at the rest of his races." 21st at Sharpsville, 2nd to unranked Ben Barnes at Grove City by 23 seconds, 1st against no competition at Big South. What other races was etrain supposed to be looking at? Dual meets? Even after that Mingo race, I'm not convinced that he will "definitely be top 5 at WPIALS." I'd probably put him in after Brett Brady who is only ranked 6th in the WPIAL and 47th overall on the list.
DeleteThe man's biggest competition for all those smaller meets is his own teammate, Mark Golebiewski, who has an outside chance of qualifying for states individually. He hypes himself to much. If you look at his Twitter it's apparent that he thinks he can beat Noah Beveridge which is complete nonsense.
DeleteWe'll see. He was 9th in AAA race at WPIAL last year and 4 of the guys in front of him were seniors. Plus the kid that was 8th at WPIALs last year is having an awful year. His time at Mingo was 40 seconds faster than last years time. I think it shows he's ready to end the season on a big note. Sorry to say but except for the top 1 or 2 in each division, this seems to be a down year for WPIALs. Opens the door for someone like him.
DeleteTarr and Snodgrass actually had to race, Forsythe had no one near him and hobby-jogged rwb. Maybe Tarr should be in the higher end of the 50, but he isn't beating Beveridge, McGoey, etc.
DeleteIn the PAC championships, it was close between OJR and Spring ford, coming down to the 5th runner and two points. OJR continues to look stronger, with a lot of guys stepping up. Boyertown looks like they've slipped a bit, hopefully they can get strong again for districts and make it to states. In their defense, though, the PAC is extremely competitive this year, so being third is nothing to be ashamed of.
ReplyDeleteConway looked strong as usual. He just stayed with the lead pack until he used his speed in the last stretch. The Phoenixville guys looked like they just decided to pack run in the middle, probably saving themselves for districts. Shultz was a non-factor. It was a little disappointing for those of us who hoped to see a bit of a duel out in front.
PAC championships were incredible! OJR and Springford was quite a battle, and it might be between these two squads for 5th place in the district?!? District One is crazy this season my goodness. i'm really excited to see how Etrain places everyone!
ReplyDeletei went to watch CR North race leagues and they looked really smooth, especially Sam Earley. Earley and Koza were on cruise control, and i think they're both going to have big races at Districts.
CR North's average was 16:13 in this race, which is only 5 seconds behind their average from last year's league meet (and they went on to average 15:43 at Districts!). I don't think North will have that big of a jump next week, but here are my predictions for the team times:
5th place Koza 15:12
6th place Campbell 15:16
?? Early 15:47
?? Erghott 15:58
?? Mullen 16:50
Mullen looked quite strong at the end of his race, so i'm thinking he could go as fast as 16:40 next weekend or as slow as 17:20. Either way, this top 4 is poised to break 16 across the board and I think they punch their ticket to states with a win.
also shout out to the pennsbury guy who engaged with me in wonderful conversation during the race (sorry i didn't catch your name bud!)
Shout at to Czar Tarr. 15th in AAA race at states. As I argued previously, should have been in Etrain's XC Top 50. He did have a mediocre race at WPIAL but came through strong. I would hope he is at least top 30 in final Top 50 rankings.
ReplyDelete