Hershey, A History

I just want to establish before I post this that this is by no means my predictions for what will happen at the state championship. This post is meant merely project the top 10 teams at the state meet using a version of historical precedent. Why? Eh I got bored and looked up a bunch of stats. C'mon people this is what i do.

So district one is the best district in the state. Big surprise, they are the biggest district and thus have the best competition for dual meets and invitationals. No need to elaborate further.

But just how good as district one been? Well for starters they have had 8 of the last 10 champs in the state. There hasn't been a year in the last 10 where a district one team hasn't been in the top 2 in the state. A good start. But what about the depth not just the top 2 teams?

Well consider this, no district one team has finished outside the top 12 since 2004 (and back then the district sent 6 teams). Here is the average place for the first, second, third, fourth and fifth best team from D1 at a given state meet.

1.2, 3.7, 6, 7.4, 9.1.

In other words in an average year you can expect district one to take 1, 4, 6, 7 and 9 at states. The peak was in 2006 when district one took the top 4 spots and 6 of the top 7 (and maybe it could have been more as a very good CB South team was left home that season). But that's an outlier realistically.

District 7 has been pretty solid, especially over the last 8 seasons. They have had a top 5 team every year and a champ. They placed 20 teams in the top 10 over the 8 year span, second only to D1s 39. But keep in mind D7 has sent 30 teams to states over that span vs D1s 42.

District 3 has sent 38 teams (I believe they were sending 5 before the three class split) and has had just 6 top 10 teams. That's roughly 15% vs 66% for D7 and above 90% for district 1.

Of course the champion of this category is district 12. Since the PCL has come into the PIAA in 2008, they have been given 10 spots to states combined over 6 seasons. They've placed 11 teams in the top 10. In other words 110%.

The remaining top 10 teams over the last 8 years have been 3 district 6 squads and one district 2 squad. No D11 teams have cracked the top 10, although some have come quite close.

Which brings me to the point of this post. We need a meet of champs!

Wait, no that's actually not the point of this post. Sorry it's a reflex at this point.

Which brings me to the point of this post: projecting the state meet purely based on history. So here's how I see it.

District one has had the champion 8 of the last 10 seasons and 7 of the last 8. So logic says district one has the champ again this year.

Henderson is still a strong team this season and they have won 5 state titles since the turn of the century.

Therefore, history says Henderson is your 2014 state champ.

Now for 2-3. In recent years this comes down to two schools: NA and the best team from D12. The PCL has had a top 3 team every year since joining the PIAA, placing an average of 2.5. NA, the top in district 7, has had 6 top 3 teams in the last 8 years and a state champ, an average of 2.875.

So history says O'Hara for 2nd and NA for 3rd.

At the 4 spot we are due for another district one team (remember the 2nd best D1 team each year is on average place 3.7). The best team left is probably Stoga so they grab 4.

At 5 you could argue for a district 6 team (they've had 3 top 5 teams since 2009) but the consistency of the D7 and D12 teams outlasts the upside of the D6 boys. D7 has had a slew of top 10 teams but also has had 4 recent top 5 squads not name North Allegheny (Baldwin twice, Lebo, Seneca Valley). That gave them the slight edge over d12 who had 2 teams in the top 10 5 of the last 6 years but only 1 year with two top 5 squads (2012).

So Lebo gets 5th.

At 6th we are due for another D1 squad and the logical choice is CRN. The last 8 years they have been 7th, 6th, 6th, 12th, 9th, 6th, 3rd and 5th. An average of 6.75 with 3 seperate occasions of exactly 6th.

CRN falls in at 6.

From here it's not too tricky. History says D12 needs another top 10 team. They take 7 with LaSalle. D1 needs two more top 10 teams and District 3 tends to sneak someone in around 10. 2013 was the outlier for D3 when Carlisle got 6th. CV however has clawed it's way to 13th, 9th, 9th, 13th, 11th, and 8th for 6 of the last 8 seasons. So they slip into the top 10 this year as well.

The final standings according to the history books.
1. Henderson
2. Ohara
3. NA
4. Conestoga
5. Lebo
6. CRN
7. LaSalle
8. CB West
9. DT West
10. Cumberland Valley

Do I think that's really what's going to happen? Of course not! But it was fun to look at right?

Oh, I just wasted a post putting you guys to sleep and I should just put out a Paul Short preview like a normal person?

What about another post about meet of champs? Ok geez you don't need to throw things at me ....

Paul Short preview should be coming tonight or tomorrow ... FYI I'm going bold with my predictions so be ready to put your hating shoes on.