So the biggest surprise for me early this season, how great Conestoga looks in the early going. Andrew Marston looks phenomenal early on, admittedly in a few short races, but really short races should put him at a disadvantage relative to a 5k because of his great strength. With Marston leading the way as a top 5 guy Conestoga has their low stick in place early. Then they just need to fill in the pieces.
Can Conestoga beat NA? I'm still a believer that NA will win when it's all said and done, but as of right now I think Conestoga looks better. Surprisingly (to me anyway) Conestoga looks deeper than NA. The absence of Seamus Love on the roster this year makes NA look a little bit more human. With Cooper (top 50 last year at states) currently running as Conestoga's 4, that's a great front group. Cruickshank has really been racing varsity this year, first in JV at Oakburne no show at GFS 3k, but when he gets in the mix that could be the valuable 5th that Stoga needs.
The key at this point appears to be, how well can Nelson and Murray do? For Stoga to realistically have a chance at the title, they need a couple guys knocking on the doors of medal contention behind the big gun in Marston. Nelson and Murray look great early, but its going to be really tough to get up to medal contention. They will be following Gunnar Sjoreen's lead, as he was just outside the medals in 2013.
But let's get it straight, NA is still a great team. Matt McGoey got off to a nice start and got his first major victory. He has the potential to be with Marston at states and could end up beating him. D7 always has guys in the top 7-10 at states, and McGoey appears to be the the best guy from the WPIAL at this point.
The big early season development for North A is Hunter Wharrey, who finished second behind McGoey at meet 1 of the year. If Wharrey has taken the next step this year and is now a top 10-15 guy in the state, the Tigers have the best 1-2 punch in the PIAA and would be in the conversation with Hoey and McDevitt for best in the state. And Seel of course is a really solid #3.
NA is a big school with a great history and they usually have a ton of depth. I believe they can round out their top 5 nicely over the course of the season. However, Conestoga has to be feeling good about their chances. The state course is a very difficult one, and the boys from Stoga had their best day their last year. You could argue that's not true for North Allegheny.
It's still way too early to say anything for sure or for me to pick a winner, but it's a very interesting and exciting conversation to talk about the team title race, and I don't know if we were thinking that a couple months ago. I know I wasn't.
For the record, the best team in the state right now is Malvern Prep. Here's the thing about Prep, they not only have the best guys, they also have the opportunity to peak those guys at regionals without a real state meet getting in the way. Yes independent leagues matters and they want to win, but the goal is nationals. It has to be. Conestoga and NA have the goal of winning states. In my opinion that has to be the goal for those schools.
But I'm not trying to make excuses, Malvern is a fantastic team. The Hoey bros are for real. Josh is probably the best frosh the state has seen since McNally. That's high praise. McDevitt is looking like a very potent #2 and Colin Wills is somebody to sleep on, he's going to continue to improve as just a junior with excellent mile credentials. He has a very similar resume to someone like Sean Weidner (a guy who is probably beginning a break out XC year) so we may see the break out from Wills by season end. Remember these guys aren't peaking until basically December. They've got almost 3 months to find themselves, get in shape and make it to nats.
No comments:
Post a Comment