Crowded at the Top

Before I get too far into things ... Here is what ought to be the link to the team listing for Paul Short (posted first on Padontplay and I don't know if I copied the link correctly, but you can also just take it yourself from there). I want to tape the preview tomorrow night so if you are interested, get in touch ASAP.
http://www.lehighsports.com/documents/2014/9/29//PS_HS_Boys_Race_Assignments_for_release.pdf?id=916

Anyway enough business here is another post to ponder.

In case you haven't noticed the play off picture in District 3 is super complicated. No one is safely through to states and the top 12 teams or so could rotate through in a bunch of unpredictable ways.

In other words here is a list of things I currently understand better than District 3.

-Quantum Physics
-Korean
-How The Kardashians deserve their own show
-Girls

Yes, the picture is hazy at this point, but that doesn't stop me from doing my darnedest to figure things out. Let's with some long shots.

Governor Mifflin is a really solid program that has a knack for putting things together at the district meet. Mills and Luckanitz were both really strong last year at districts and guys like Luke Meyers are developing solid this year behind them. The team wasn't overly impressive in it's first meet, but I anticipate them coming up really strong for the stretch run. I can't see them cracking the state qualifying 4, but I think they will surprise some people with their performance in Hershey.

Cedar Crest is a solid program as well. They put together a nice 4x8 last year outdoors but haven't quite translated that to the cross country course. They are real long shots to advance, but I include them because they have had team and individual champs in recent years and look like a top 10 team this year despite the depth of the district.

So that leaves the following squads, all of whom I feel like at least have decent shots at states if they have the right day. In no particular order:

Carlisle
Cumberland Valley
Hempfield
Hershey
JP McCaskey
Lower Dauphin
Red Land
Twin Valley

(Alright you caught me, they are in alphabetical order)

8 teams! For 4 spots!

And here's the thing. Sean and I discuses how Carlisle was able to run a strong race at districts and states and he said that you had to save a little something at districts.

How the heck is anyone going to be able to save anything for states in this field?

Hempfield is probably the biggest long shot of the year on paper. They were bested by a lot of D3 teams at Carlisle and they didn't make states last year. But they return basically their entire varsity from a year ago and Justin Yurchak has looked strong early. But there was no Yurchak or Brady (their top returner from a year ago) at Carlisle. Nick Norton was sub 17 at Carlisle and Christain Groff is an emerging name, hoping to follow in his brother's footsteps (4:16 miler Matt). Hempfield will lay it all on the line at districts and they may be able to sneak by a team that's saving something.

The Hershey boys were not at Carlisle this year but they did beat Red Land (top D3 team at Carlisle) in a dual meet already this year. Aidan Demko and Will Sponaugle are a great 1-2 punch for Hershey and they appear to developing a serviceable pack behind them (they return all 7 guys from districts last year). At PTXC, Hershey was right in the mix with CV and Red Land and beat defending district champs Lower Dauphin.

And those defending champs LD have been handling business as well. They also defeated Red Land in a dual meet behind a very strong top three Sean Weidner, Colton Cassell and Kyler Shea. The last two guys are just sophomores which could mean the team has room still left to grow. But also could mean they will be too inexperienced to perform under the state meet pressure. They looked plenty strong at Pre States placing 6th as a team, but they need to establish some reliable back up at 4-5 in case the youngsters falter.

Never underestimate the power of being defending champs.

Then we have one of the biggest surprises of the weekend in JP McCaskey. Huge run by Nathan Henderson to establish himself as a medal threat in AAA. Hopkins had an outstanding day behind him and Guiterrez rounded out what was arguably the best top 3 of the day. JP finished with a spread of close to 2 minutes, but did have 4 guys under 17 with Perez running 16:55. Most teams in the district are still trying to determine who will be their 5 and establish a tighter spread and McCaskey fits in line with those other teams. But their top 4 is where it needs to be to get into the state meet.

Twin Valley got into the state meet a year ago with a brilliant piece of pack running. Dom Digicombo was top 50 in the state last year, but he was barely top 40 at districts. That was the #1 stick for a Twin Valley team that squeaked by Dallastown and #1 stick of Patrick Reilly (the district champ).

This year Twin Valley is going to need to use a similar tactic. The Geary bros, Dom Dig, and Coakley have been a killer top 4 so far this season and had a great showing against CRN (who they beat) and CB West (who they didn't) on CRN's home course out in the foreign lands of District 1. Their pack wasn't far enough up the pack to give CB West a real run for their money and their spread was a little too large to make a statement to the other D3 teams. But they made it a year ago with a similar crew and it looks like they only ran 5 guys at CRN which could have hurt their 5's performance. Teammates are the best motivators. But right now Twin Valley has their work cut out for them if they want to get back to the state meet.

Carlisle didn't have the showing they were probably hoping for on their home course. But they still have one of the favorites for District champ on their side in Zach Brehm and a really strong #2 in Joe D'Angelo. Wisner should bounce back in the coming weeks, but in the mean time Carlisle is also developing a strong 3/4 in Brandin Dyche (17:01 on Saturday). The 5 spot is a tricky spot for them, but it's a tricky spot for everyone right now so it's not a huge reason for concern.

The boys from Red Land are determine to avenge their 6th place from a year ago and get to the state meet. Zach Seiger was fantastic at Carlisle running a thrilling 15:40 for third. The performance, coupled with Drew Wikinson's 16:09 catapulted the squad to top D3 honors (for AAA at least) avenging their loss to CV at PTXC. Mills was a great three for Red Land as well and they rode the top 3 theory to a 7th place overall finish. Their spread was nearly 2 minutes, but that will happen when your #1 runs 15:40. If the top 3 deliver at districts like they have been at the early invites, it looks like this team will get to states and maybe even win a district title.

Cumberland Valley is kind of like the CRN of District 3. I don't need to see what they are returning, just pencil them in for a state spot. CV has looked consistently strong, tops at PTXC and 3rd AAA to Red Land and JP at Carlisle. They did get edged by Carlisle in a dual meet however, and they didn't have the same front running this weekend that they did at PTXC when Wasko was 7th. But unlike the other teams around them in the district, there 5 were all strong (17:12 was their 5). I think as we get closer to districts, this team inches towards the front of the pack and their intersquad competitiveness drags them all together. I thought Soliman would be their #1 guy this year at seasons end and he is currently running in the 4 spot. Higgins has been money at the 3 and Seeber and Wasko are consistent.

With a complete 5, they have the best shot of any of the teams I mentioned to return to states. However, they are one off day on the Hershey course from being sent spiraling right into the middle of the pack. And as we saw this weekend, you can only do so much with a strong 5 if you don't have the firepower out front.

Hopefully this helps clear up the picture of district 3 picture a little better. I still feel lost.

I think I'm just gonna watch some Kardashians.