District One will always be the most competitive district. Every year there are teams that miss out on experiencing the big dance that have real talent.
This year will probably follow that same trend. Already we are seeing some intriguing teams showcasing some early ability. Thus far there are probably something like 3 different groups of squads right now in D1: the favorites, the programs, and the wrecking balls.
First is the favorites. Conestoga is my #1 team in the district right now. That could change when they actually run a 5k of course, but right now I see an experienced squad with an excellent front runner and 3 guys behind him who can challenge 16 minutes this year (if things get out hard enough, no Tony Russell to help drag everyone to fast times). As I discussed previously, this is a great team with title aspirations.
You also have DT West, who can't be overlooked in the district title talks. The crazy thing about DT West is I know they are good, but I can't really point to one or two runners and say those are the guys who are carrying this team.
Allow me to elaborate. I know West is good. You know why? Because their first two meets they went toe to toe with two of the best three teams in the state and held their own. But I really can't project their top 5 or even their top 3 into the future. Their top guys from last year, their top guys from Oakburne and their top guys from Abington all rotated around. Sappey is the guy right now, he looks very strong early, but I see a pack of guys filled with potential breakout stars to give him chase.
They have Bullock, Oneill, Barton, Barton and Ryherd already each having nice moments. Their potential #1 by seasons end isn't even healthy yet in Alansky. Not sure how long he is out for but if he can get in a month or two of training he can help contribute to this pack.
They need develop some clear front runners to match up well with teams like NA and Conestoga and even Easton who have serious low stick potential, but With a variety of options for leaders on this team, DT West is the definition of a wildcard, but at the very least has to be considered a favorite to make states.
Then you have the programs. You know who we are talking about here: CRN and Henderson. At this point, keep in mind North returns 5 of 7 from a team that was 5th at states (almost 4th). They do lose their big time low stick in Ross Wilson, and that definitely hurts, but they return plenty of experience and they will give everybody a run for their money at seasons end you have to imagine. I will say this, North has not grabbed a district title in roughly a decade, but they also have not missed states while I have been following the sport (almost a decade).
As for Henderson, they have a bigger hill to climb. They lose 6 of 7 from the back to back champs, including state record holder Tony Russell. They have won a slew of district titles in the last 15 years and added in some state titles to boot, but they are, given what they return, more of a question mark than North. They haven't missed states since 2007 (they had the district champ Chris Aldrich and Will Kellar, a future state champ, the rest wasn't quite ready yet) so it would be odd to see them missing, but you never know in District One.
Then you have the wrecking balls. Why are they wrecking balls? Because they can come flying in and mess everything up when things come together at Lehigh at the end of October. The big name we haven't talked about yet is Pennsbury. They return a stud in Sam Webb and a sub 16 man in Alek Sauer. Plus Pennsbury returns 6 of 7 from the 10th place team in the state. Here is the main obstacle they face: filling the void left by Liam OConnell's graduation. There top three was their biggest strength a year ago, so somebody from last years youngsters has to step into those shoes. They got a nice win at Belmont this past weekend and have plenty to build off looking ahead. I see Pennsbury as that borderline type team. If you are better than them you are probably going to states. If not, then you are probably staying home.
Both Central Bucks teams will be interesting to watch this year. They both traded wins already this year at the first two invites of the season, leaving a few people scratching our heads at which squad is best. CB East has the big time front runner and really they haven't been in a deep enough meet to properly utilize him yet. Districts is that kind of meet. West is growing quickly behind Rock Fortna's emergence as a front runner. If they can tighten up their pack, they will be dangerous as well. The Central Bucks schools are in a loaded league and will face great competition on an almost biweekly basis. You have Horsham and Casey Comber (coming off a big win over Coatesville) who are developing as a deep sleeper and you have the always dangerous North Penn who could develop the next state champ at any moment. In previous years they have pulled Brad Miles and Sam Bernitt from soccer team to 10th at states. You just never know with a school that size. And Tung is a nice front runner to help lead the team.
The Chesmont always has a slew of talented teams on the line at districts. This year, however, we probably will be seeing a change from the norm in the league. Rustin looks like they are a team on the rise behind Carmody, Voigt and young Coates. They are developing a nice pack of under the radar guys. Coatesville has a solid team as well and is looking to return to their former state championship glory.
The biggest wrecking ball might be Bensalem. They are in a league with CRN and Pennsbury (probably #3 and #4 in the district right now on paper) and finished in that dreaded 6th spot last year at districts. When they lost Kyle Francis, the multi state champ and three time individual state qualifier, I thought that would really hurt their stock, but they started off the season with a nice win over CRN and a great showing from Alex Ramirez who beat out a couple really strong runners from CR South in Hanna and MaGuire. They have Taji Mays (16:20s last year) and Rahi Shah returning from last years top 5 in addition to Ramirez. Throw in Ageel Bacchus who had a strong first race of the season and not only do I have no chance of spelling anyone's name right on this team, but they have a dangerous group of 5 guys in a good system with a little bit of extra fire after missing states by just 12 points last year. I'll be keeping my eye on this unit.
D1 is ridiculous. Now everyone gives it their all at Districts so this is in no way implying someone could have/should have done better. But the difference between making states and not is often less than 10 seconds over the 5 scorers.. Last year if Bensalem were 3 seconds faster, they're in States. And for the last 3 years D1 has placed their top 5 teams in top 10 states. It's very likely that Bensalem and/or Great Valley and Dwest would have been top 10 states if they could have gotten out of D1.
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